Even as Monsoon arrival in Kerala is delayed by 72 hours, the on-time arrival of the south west monsoon over Odisha appears bright. The change in conditions in the Bay of Bengal indicates to rain starting on the evening of June 10 in the coastal districts and through central Odisha will extend up to western Odisha districts like Sundargarh.
While a monsoon trough will induce rainfall from the evening of June 10 in Odisha, the latest model outlooks indicate to the rainfall in the State getting a booster dose from June 13 when a monsoon low is predicted to develop in the north Bay of Bengal. The forecast is this system will bring heavy rains in Odisha and West Bengal.
- June 10 Midnight: Very heavy rain predicted for the central districts in Odisha.
- June 11 Evening: Very heavy rain forecast for districts like Puri, Nayagarh and Kandhamal.
As per model forecast by reputed weather agencies like IMD, US-GFS and ECMWF, a monsoon low will be going to form on June 13-14 in north Bay of Bengal. In association with the system, the State is predicted to receive good rainfall till June 15.
The model forecasts further indicate that rainfall in Odisha will pick up momentum from June 17 onwards. And if IMD model is to be believed then the whole State is going to record 7mm rainfall per day during the week of June 18-24. The model forecast show widespread rain across Odisha.
CONDITIONS THAT DECLARE ONSET OF MONSOON
As per IMD guidelines, when nearly 60 per cent of weather stations in Odisha will receive 2.5 mm rainfall for two consecutive days, then onset will be declared on the second day. However, the rider is parameters like depth of westerlies and outgoing longwave radiation are also to be measured and they have to conform to the IMD benchmarks.
A glance at the IMD model shows that over 60 per cent of the districts in Odisha are predicted to receive around 5 mm rainfall from June 11. And going by the IMD benchmarks, the monsoon onset date in Odisha may be June 12 this year.
HISTORY OF MONSOON ARRIVAL IN ODISHA
- 2010: Monsoon advanced in Odisha following the formation of a monsoon low near Andhra Pradesh on June 12-13.
- 2011: Monsoon hits the State on June 13. Southern and coastal areas received the first monsoon rain
- 2012: Monsoon onset over the State happened on June 17.
- 2013: The date of Onset was June 13.
- 2014: The onset date of Monsoon had been June 18.
- 2015: This year saw widespread droughts but arrival date of Monsoon was June 14.
- 2016: Onset of Monsoon was on June 18, and cyclonic circulation triggered rainfall made it cover the whole State in next 48 hours.
- 2017: date of onset of Monsoon was June 12.
- 2018: Monsoon arrived 24-hrs earlier (on June 9) than normal onset date of June 10. That year monsoon had been very good in the State.
- 2019: Date of onset had been on June 20.
- 2020: The monsoon arrived in Odisha on June 12. Southern districts received the first monsoon showers.