Even as the recently passed well-marked low pressure area raised severe flood scare in Balasore district, the forecast of a depression passing through Odisha gives the jitters of flash flood spectre in the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin by the weekend.
As per the model forecasts by IMD, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF, a fresh low pressure area that will form over north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal on and around September 11, is likely to intensify into a depression and pass through Odisha on and around Sept 12-13.
As a consequence of the new weather development, there is a prediction of very heavy rainfall in the range of 26-50mm in the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin on September 12. The forecast further says around the early morning hours on September 14, extremely heavy rainfall in the range of 50-100mm in 6 hours will be lashing the districts of Sundargarh, Deogarh, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Angul and Dhenkanal.
The model predictions show the depression system likely to pass the Odisha coasts between Jagatsinghpur and Bhadrak on and around the early morning hours of Sept 14.
Flood Scenario In Odisha
As on today, except Jalaka river in Balasore, where the Central Water Commission terms the flood situation as severe, the flood scenario in the rest of the rivers/basins are normal. However, the scenario in the Brahmani - Baitarani basin will be under pressure as the depression will move towards the State coasts from Sept 12 onwards.
As per CWC data, drought-hit Jajpur may record a severe flood condition by September 12 due to the swelling of river Baitarani. Moreover, the current inflow in the Rengali reservoir, which is around 47.11 MCM, will touch 224.53 MCM by the morning hours of September 13, the report observed.
However, there is no likelihood of any flood-like condition in the river basins of Mahanadi, Budhabalanga, Ruskuliya and Bansadhara, predicts the CWS report.
According to IMD, the rainfall in all the river basins like upper and lower Mahanadi, Subarnarekha, Budhabalanga, Baitarani and Bansadhara will be in the range of 11-25mm only.
The forecast by the models shows that Bhubaneswar and Cuttack will receive a cumulative rainfall of 26-50 mm in 3hours in the noon hours (11 am -12 pm) on September 13.
By the evening hours on Sept 13, the cumulative rainfall in the range of 26-50 mm in 3hours will be recorded in the districts of Sundargarh, many adjoining places in Sambalpur, Deogarh, Angul, Dhenkanal, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada and Jagatsinghpur.
In the wee hours of Sept 14, heavy rain will take all the north interior districts in its grip, when the weather system is predicted to cross the State. The depression is slated to move towards northwest India as a low pressure system.
Five Low Pressures Likely In Sept
If the model forecasts are to be believed, a fresh low pressure area is likely to form in the north-central Bay of Bengal towards the fag end of the third week of this month. The conditions in the Bay of Bengal suggests the formation of another new low pressure area in the last week of September.