53-year-old spacecraft comes falling back to Earth; may crash next week at 242 km/h

A Soviet spacecraft stranded in Earth’s orbit since 1972 is set to make an uncontrolled re-entry as early as May 10, hurtling toward the planet at 242 km/h (150 mph). The failed Venus probe, Kosmos 482, has circled Earth for over five decades and could survive re-entry due to its rugged design, sparking low but notable concerns about debris impact.

What Is Kosmos 482?

Launched on March 31, 1972, Kosmos 482 aimed to explore Venus but never left Earth’s orbit after a rocket malfunction. A timer error caused its upper-stage engine to shut down prematurely, leaving the probe and its attached landing module trapped.

The spacecraft later split into four pieces, with the 1-meter-wide, 500-kilogram spherical lander still orbiting today. Designed to withstand Venus’s harsh atmosphere, its heat shield and durable construction raise fears it may survive re-entry.

When and Where Will It Crash?

Kosmos 482’s decaying orbit, now below 400 km (248 miles), will likely drag it into Earth’s atmosphere between May 8–14, with May 11 as the likeliest date.

Solar activity could shift this timeline, as increased heat from the sun expands the atmosphere, accelerating orbital decay.

The probe could land anywhere between 52° north and south latitude, spanning from London to Cape Horn. However, experts stress a 72% chance it will splash into the ocean, potentially near the remote ‘spacecraft cemetery’ in the Pacific.

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Will It Survive Re-Entry?

The lander’s Venus-rated durability makes survival possible. Built to endure extreme heat and pressure, its half-ton metal frame might withstand atmospheric friction. Satellite tracker Marco Langbroek notes its risk parallels a ‘random meteorite strike'—rare but not impossible.

However, decades in space may have degraded its parachute and heat shield. Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell warns that shield failure would cause disintegration, but an intact shield means ‘a half-ton metal object falling from the sky.’

Tracking the Fall

Global agencies are monitoring Kosmos 482’s 90-minute orbits, but precise re-entry points remain unclear until days before impact.

Amateur astronomers can spot it at dawn or dusk using tools like Heavens-Above.com, though it appears as a dim, fast-moving dot. During re-entry, it may resemble a slow, bright meteor with possible fragmentation.

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A Growing Space Junk Problem

Kosmos 482 highlights the escalating issue of orbital debris. Over 27,000 tracked objects now clutter Earth’s orbit, including relics like the 1958 US Vanguard 1 and modern mega-constellations like Starlink.

Uncontrolled re-entries, such as China’s 2022 rocket debris, underscore the need for sustainable space practices.