Iran-Israel war impact on India: What if the conflict spills over? Is India ready?

With tensions between Israel and Iran escalating into open conflict, India is closely monitoring the situation in West Asia. The government is reportedly reviewing contingency plans to ensure the safety of Indian nationals in the region, particularly in Israel, Iran, and the Gulf countries.

Over 18 million Indians live and work in West Asia, and any further escalation could trigger large-scale evacuations. The Ministry of External Affairs is said to be in constant touch with embassies and consulates in affected nations. 

Proven Track Record In Evacuation Operations

In previous crises such as Operation Raahat in 2015 saw the Indian Armed Forces and Air India evacuate over 4,700 Indians and 960 foreign nationals from war-torn Yemen. The Navy deployed ships like INS Mumbai and INS Tarkash, while the Indian Air Force used C-17 Globemaster aircraft for rapid airlifts.

Operation Ganga was launched in 2022 to evacuate Indian students and nationals from Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine war. The government coordinated with neighbouring countries like Poland, Romania, and Hungary, flying over 90 special civilian flights to bring back more than 22,000 Indians.

India had earlier launched ‘Operation Sankalp’ to protect its commercial shipping through the region, especially after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. 

Oil Supply Disruption & Price Hike:

India imports over 85% of its crude oil, with significant volumes coming from the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz, near Iran, is a key chokepoint for global oil. If it is blocked or disrupted, oil prices could skyrocket, directly impacting India's import bill, current account deficit, and inflation. But India maintains strategic oil reserves and may turn to alternative suppliers like the U.S., Russia, or African nations. However, shipping costs will rise.

Impact on Bilateral Trade with Iran and Israel:

India's trade with Iran—especially through Chabahar Port, crude oil, and dry fruits—could be impacted by Western sanctions or Iranian instability. Israel is a major defence and tech partner. Prolonged conflict may slow ongoing deals or new investments.

Diplomatic Channels Open:

While India has avoided taking sides in the conflict, diplomatic backchannels remain active. Officials believe maintaining a neutral, balanced position will help safeguard both economic and strategic interests in the region.

As the Israel-Iran conflict unfolds, India’s preparedness—diplomatic, military, and humanitarian—will be tested once again on the global stage. India’s voice in this crisis may be limited publicly, but its behind-the-scenes diplomacy will be crucial in safeguarding national interests and protecting its vast diaspora in the region.