Bumper Voting Indicates What?
Chequered by violence, booth capturing and rigging, three phases of Panchayat elections are over in Odisha. The main drag of this Panchayat polls - Kalahandi - has recorded a bumper voting. Many other swing districts have also registered copious polling.
As per the SEC data, swing districts like Kalahandi, Sundargarh, Sambalpur, Bargarh, Nuapada, Subarnapur and Jharsuguda have recorded brisk polling in the ongoing polls, whereas a district like Balangir, though has recorded a rise in average polling in the first 3-phases, the voter turnout has been on the wane over the phases. And in Deogarh, the average voter turnout in three phases and phase-wise have registered a decline.
These 9 districts in the western part of Odisha host a total of 207 seats (of total 853 seats). In 2017 Panchayat elections, the BJP had captured a whopping 126 seats. Though the overall strike rate of the saffron party in 2017 had been around 61 percent, a district-wise look puts the range between 37 percent in Sundargarh and high of 91 percent in Kalahandi - the central issue of this election (Mamita murder case, which both BJP and Congress had made it their banner issue highlighting nepotism and crime against women).
Voter Turnout And Poll Outcome
As per theoretical and empirical literature of electoral dynamics, a higher turnout is expected when policies of the incumbent had a salutary impact on voters or in case the contest has been very close.
On the contrary, lower turnout indicates voters' poor analysis of schemes and policies put on display by the political parties at the hustings.
And basically, higher or lower turnout in the swing seats gives an indication of the direction of the political wind.
A case study on Odisha vindicates the pattern of poll literature on the ground. Consider the following case.
The Bottomline
The above analysis indicates what has been cooking in the 2022 Panchayat polls in the State. The high turnout in the swing districts hints at the close contest in the backdrop of Modi schemes vs Naveen schemes.
Besides, there has been an issue like the Mamita murder case in districts like Kalahandi and Balangir. In order to neutralise, the charge sheet in the case has been filed only days before the Panchayat polls.
Going by the past poll trends and the theoretical electoral literature, it will not be easy for the BJD and BJP to repeat their landmark performances in 2022.