Odisha seems heading for a bigger peak in the third wave than the second wave. The virus transmission is happening at a brisk rate. On average, a Covid-19 positive individual is infecting more than 3 in the State.
The Rt value in the State is measured at 3.30 in the first week of January. In contrast, the value had been below 2.5 in both the first and second waves in the State.
Amid widespread transmission, the doubling time in the State as of Jan 8, 2022, is measured at 2.3 days from 3.01 days on Jan 5. The pace of growth in the daily numbers, however, hints at a bigger peak in the third wave in the State.
Odisha Heading For Bigger Peak?
Consider the numbers. While in the last 120 hours, the number of tests in the State had grown by only 0.8 percent, the new cases detected per day had grown by 202 percent during the same period (Jan 4 - 8).
Significantly, in the second wave, the doubling time was 7-days on the day the State's daily caseload had recorded over 3k cases per day. But the third wave has depicted a shattering growth. On Friday when the State jumped to the 3000 new cases per day club, the doubling time had shrunk to 2.3 days.
In the given backdrop, the peak numbers in the third wave could grow up to a high of 20-26K per 24 hours in the State. The first wave peak in the State had recorded over 4.4k cases daily, and the second wave peak saw a number of over 12.3k cases per day.
The Peak Date
Ground-level data from the UK and South Africa suggests that the Omicron wave in their respective countries is now on the wane. Both the countries have entered into the post-peak phase. The new cases in UK have dropped from a high of over 2.1lakh to 1.78 lakh on Jan 7. The 7-days rolling average had also exhibited a fall.
The trend has been the same in South Africa, as the cases had declined from December 25, 2021 onwards. First Omicron was detected in South Africa on Nov 24, 2021.
While S Africa has officially declared the passing of the second wave peak in the country, UK is yet to declare so. Incidentally, both the countries had taken nearly a month to hit the 3rd wave peak.
In the given context, the forecast is Odisha may hit a bigger peak in the third wave towards the end of this month.
20 Districts On Road To Hotspots
As per the Rt (rate of transmission or reproduction value) value estimated by field-level epidemiologists network, Sundargarh scenario is explosive. A positive individual in the district is infecting as many as 6 other individuals.
The Rt value is also more than 6 in Nabarangpur and Kalahandi districts. The rate of virus transmission in as many as 20 districts is around 4.
The districts are Balangir, Balasore, Bargarh, Puri, Cuttack, Khordha, Ganjam, Subarnapur, Sambalpur, Rayagada, Mayurbhanj, Malkangiri, Koraput, Keonjhar, Jharsuguda, Jajpur and Boudh.
Only two districts - Bhadrak and Gajapati - have an Rt value of below 2 in the State.
Transmission Brisk In Western Odisha
A detailed glance at the Rt values indicates that the spread of the virus in western Odisha is very brisk. Apart from Sundargarh and Kalahandi, other districts like Balangir, Baragarh, Boudh and Subarnapur have a Rt value of around 5.
As per a report prepared by the UK Health Security Agency, high Rt value indicates the taking of large scale contacts between infected and uninfected in the State. In other words, the Rt value tells that the transmission chain in Odisha is very strong and Delmicron has an upper hand when the State still has nearly 40-60 percent of the population unvaccinated in a majority of the districts.