Even as the State has decided to take a plunge in Panchayat polls, the shocker to the fore is between the week ended on Jan 9 and the week ending on Jan 13, the number of districts in the State having a weekly test positivity rate of over 5 percent has jumped to 18.
As many as five tribal districts have now started recording a weekly positive rate of over 5 percent. This shows the rural spread of the virus. Since Delta and its sub-lineages are still stoking up the numbers, the State government has a task clearly cut out.
For Odisha Health Department, the immediate task is to break the transmission chain, and simultaneously go for early tracking and treatment in order to prevent the growth of severe cases, especially in the rural areas. Because such a scenario will result in a rise in the Covid toll.
Odisha In Pre-Peak Phase Now?
As per a recent report by the Cambridge University, New Delhi-based Health System Transformation Portal and UK-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research, an infected individual in Odisha is still spreading the disease to nearly 5 others.
The R0 value is estimated at around 5 in the week ending on Jan 13 from six in the previous week.
A hint that the State is now in the pre-peak phase has been dropped by the report. It observed that the filtered daily growth rate for Odisha is at around 42 percent in the week ending on Jan 13 from over 44 percent in the week ending on Jan 10.
The fall indicates big. As per the report, the super-exponential growth phase of Odisha is now over. The doubling rate which has exacerbated to 2.3 days on Jan 8 from 3.01 days on Jan 5, has been again measured in the week ending on Jan 13 at 3.01 days.
Based on the above evolving trends, the report predicts that Odisha will reach the third wave peak in the fourth week of January.
The 'Positive' Map
Between Jan 9 to Jan 13, the weekly test positive rate (WPR) in as many as seven districts have been more than 10 percent. In the week ended on Jan 9, the WPR of Khordha, Sundargarh and Sambalpur were at over 10 percent.
Cut to the week ending on Jan 13, in addition to the three districts, four more had started recording a WPR of over 10 percent.
Data shows while Sundargarh with a weekly test positivity rate of 28.07 percent has emerged as the top hotspot in Odisha, Khordha with a rate of 24.18 percent is second in the State. Balasore has a high WPR of 18.96 percent. The WPR of Sambalpur increased to 18.05 percent from 11.3 percent in the week ending on Jan 9.
While the WPR of Jharsuguda has been estimated at 13.01, Cuttack has a WPR of 11.92 percent and Mayubhanj's rate is 10.05 percent.
Besides, the 7 districts, another 11 districts in the State have recorded a WPR of over 5 percent but below 10 percent. In the week ended on Jan 9, the tally had been a mere two - Balasore and Jhrasuguda.
The new entrants are:
- Angul - 9.83 percent
- Bolangir - 9.46 percent
- Puri - 9.16 percent
- Bargarh - 8.3 percent
- Bhadrak - 7.69 percent
- Rayagada - 6.92 percent
- Nabarangpur - 6.67 percent
- Gajapati - 6.48 percent
- Kalahandi - 5.34 percent
- Koraput - 5.17 percent
- Jagatsinghpur - 5.15 percent