Weather will take an about-turn in Odisha. Though the maximum temperature of over 40 deg C had been recorded in only a few districts like Bolangir, adjoining Nuapada and Bargarh in the month of March, come April 13 the State is predicted to turn into a hot plate.
As per the weather models like NCEP-GFS and MME of IITM, in the second fortnight of April, the maximum day temperature in the State will hover at above 40 deg C.
An analysis of NCEP-GFS prediction reveals that in the first fortnight of April (April 1-14) while western and central districts will record a maximum day temperature of 39-40 deg C plus, the coastal and south Odisha would be recording temperature in the range of 36-38 deg C till April 12. North Odisha will record maximum temperature in the range of 34-37 deg C.
However, from April 13 onwards the mercury in the State will keep shooting up northwards. While the mercury in the western parts of the State is predicted to hit 42 deg C, the coastal, south and northern parts will record around 39 deg C.
As per the NCEP prediction, the State will burn at over 42 deg C on April 16. If the prediction is any indication, the mercury will shoot over the roof to touch 44 deg C. The coastal, northern and southern (except Malkangiri and Koraput) parts of the State will burn at over 42 deg C. The heatwave is predicted to sweep the State till April 19.
If the forecast by the multimodal ensemble (MME) of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology is to be believed, there is a high probability (around 50 percent) of heatwave sweeping across Odisha till the end of April.
Cyclonegensis In April
Though the CFS based Grand Ensemble Prediction system (CGEPS) of IITM has no forecast of cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal till April 27, the OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) numbers hint at cloudy Bay of Bengal and Andaman seas from the third week of April. The last week of April will witness highly cloudy conditions as the OLR is predicted to go for a toss by the IITM model.
In tandem with the IITM's OLR report, the NCEP-GFS model also predicts cloudy conditions in the southeast, southwest bay and Andaman seas.
The MME model makes a forecast that Odisha will record below normal rainfall in the month of April. But Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar will be recording normal to above-normal rainfall in the month.