With two low pressures heading towards north Odisha in a span of around 9 days, floods are seemingly hanging like swords over the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak and Jajpur.
As per the Central Water Commission (CWC) data, a day after the low pressure system crosses the Odisha-West Bengal coast on September 20, the water level in Brahmani -Baitarani rivers is predicted to remain 1mt below the warning level.
In the given backdrop, model forecasts show the districts will face another low pressure system between Sept 26-28. And the prediction is, under the influence of this fresh low pressure, while the district of Balasore is going to record rainfall up to around 8mm per hour, the other north Odisha districts like Bhadrak, Jajpur, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Dhenkanal and Cuttack are predicted to measure rain in the range of 4mm per hour.
As per the CWC forecast, the flood situation in the Baitarani and Jalaka rivers will remain severe till September 21, courtesy heavy rainfall forecast under the impact of the fresh low pressure system likely on Sept 20-21in the Subarnareka basin in Jharkhand.
Back To Back Heavy Rain
The flood fears loom large over the north Odisha districts as another fresh low pressure system will hit the districts between Sept 26-28. Under its impact, Odisha is likely to receive very heavy rainfall for nearly 48 hours.
And as the system is predicted to bring heavy rainfall in the states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, besides West Bengal and Odisha, the flood situation in the northern districts are unlikely to ease till September end.
An analysis of CWC data shows that water levels in the Brahmani - Baitarani and Subarnarekha basins will hover around the danger level till the end of this month. And the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak and Jajpur may record floods.
Mahanadi Flood Forecast
As per the data available with CWC, with the Mahanadi basin recording a massive 27.6 mm rainfall on Wednesday, which is 341 percent more than the normal, the water inflow to Hirakud reservoir has crossed the 10.5k cubic meter per second today morning hours.
As a consequence, the water level at Naraj will breach the warning level at midnight today. As per the CWC forecast, the Cuttack district may record above normal floods on September 18. The water level will fall from midnight of Sept 18.
There is a forecast that the inflow to Hirakud reservoir will drop to nearly 3000 cubic meters per second by Sept 21.
However, the upper Mahanadi basin in Chhattisgarh is predicted to receive nearly 5mm/hour rainfall on Sept 21-23, Moreover, model forecasts show another spell of heavy rain in Chhattisgarh between Sept 28-29.
In the given backdrop, where heavy rains are predicted for both upper and lower Mahanadi basins during the next 14 days (at least 8 days will witness rainfall in all the three states of Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh), the perils of flood in Mahanadi exist till the end of this month.
Rushikuliya, Bansdhara On Watch list?
Odisha needs to stay alert on the southern front as a flood-like situation is likely to hit the southern districts in October 1st week when a deep depression is predicted to cross the coasts between East Godavari and Vizag districts.
Though the water level in Rushikuliya is predicted to remain below 4 mt from the warning level till Sept 23, the river has to remain on the watch list due to an upcoming severe system.
Similarly, CWC forecasts show Bansadhara water level inching towards the warning level by Sept 22, which may give the flood jitters later.