Odisha is unlikely to get hit by the third wave. The State's SVEIRD dynamics hint so. But experts have two opinions on whether the Covid pandemic phase called the 'Third Wave' to storm the State. Even, top epidemiologists feel the novel virus disease will play a long inning as an endemic, just like malaria, influenza or dengue, in the State.
As per a study published in medRxiv, which is based on SVEIRD - Susceptible, Vaccinated, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered and Dead - model, Odisha is unlikely to record any third wave in the future thanks to its low population density.
The study very clearly said, "As per our calculations, Odisha with low population density (269 persons/km2 ), which had the R0 value of 2.245 during the second wave (April-May), is unlikely to witness any subsequent wave."
The study believes that post the scale of infections in the second wave, and along with vaccination, the susceptible population in the State has shrunk to very low.
For which, the study believes, given State's low population density, Odisha can maintain the social distancing norms without enforcing lockdown. Moreover, as the infection rate (total infected per 100 population) in the State has been quite low, the calculation shows Odisha is unlikely to experience the third wave.
A detailed look at the study reveals two cardinal factors - population density and infection rate. If the study is to be believed, Odisha has an infection rate of around 1.164. The study says low infection rate, along with low population density, worked favourably in manufacturing low R0 value during the second wave. With vaccination being the new factor, the study scales down the susceptible population in the State, therefore, leaving little chance for any subsequent wave.
Epidemic To Endemic
However, the study didn't declare Odisha to go Covid-19 free soon. It maintained that the novel disease will survive in the State as an endemic. And outbreaks will happen but remain limited to areas having high population density and more vulnerable population.
Like malaria and dengue endemic districts in the State, some districts with high population density and more susceptible population may emerge as COVID19 endemic districts in future.
List Of Future COVID19 Endemic Districts
- Khordha - population density highest at 800 per sqkm. Incidentally, the thick second wave tail in the district prevails, despite good progress in vaccination. Khordha district is now second in the country after Puducherry's Mahe. In the State headquarters district, a whopping 40.37 per cent of population stands fully vaccinated as against 45.87 percent in Mahe.
- Cuttack - The population density is high at 667. Social distancing is not possible without restrictions. Moreover, as the vaccination rate is very slow, the susceptible population is still high.
- Jajpur - has the third-highest population density of 630. The vaccination rate is poor. The susceptible population, therefore, is high. And restrictions required to maintain covid-19 appropriate behaviour.
- Balasore - The population density very high at 610 as against the State average of 269. The infection rate is higher than State average.
- Ganjam - has a population density of 430. The district has the potential to see outbreaks, as social distancing is very hard to maintain in full unlock condition. Moreover, only 17 per cent of the population stands fully vaccinated.