Not before the lapse of 48 hours of Cyclone Gulab's landfall, the head of the Bay of Bengal is likely to conceive another depression in a few hours from now. However, satellite data don't agree on the system intensifying into a cyclone.
As per the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), a low-level circulation centre is persisting over the north Bay of Bengal and the system has heavy to moderate rain-bearing clouds on its southeast arm. Moving at around 23 km/hr, the system is tracking towards the land in the northwest direction.
Since the system is rapidly consolidating, and with the sea conditions favouring, the system may at most likely to grow into a depression in the next 24 hours, the JTWC analysis reveals.
Why Depression Formation Likely?
As per the data analysis, to the northeast of the low pressure area, an anticyclone (1008 Mb)area exists, which will help in maintaining an outflow of warm wind to the low pressure system. Moreover, with the sea surface temperature being very warm (29-30 deg C) and vertical wind shear being low to moderate, the conditions aid the vorticity process and, thus, help it getting intensified.
The surface wind speed is estimated at around 55km/hr.
Will It Grow To A Cyclone?
Analysis of the data available reveals that the LPA is just around 26 km away (at 5pm today) from the river delta area of the Sundarbans (see the image).
As it is nearing the river delta and is set to move over the swampy landmass, further intensification is simply not possible. The system is unlikely to grow into a cyclone.
While the system is a mere 26 km away from the West Bengal coast, it is nearly 167 km away from the coast of Balasore by the evening hours today. At the current rate of movement, the system is likely to make landfall in the region of South 24 Parganas just a few hours from now.
Given that the heavy convective cloud band will pass over Odisha after landfall, rainfall in the range of 4mm per hour is likely to lash the Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj etc from around 5 am onwards tomorrow (Sept 29). By the evening hours, the rainfall intensity will drop to around 2mm/hour.
On Sept 30, many places in the districts will record rainfall in the range of 6mm/hr in the morning hours. Similarly, during the evening hours, few places in the districts of Jajpur, Keonjhar and Dhenkanal may record rainfall in the range of 5mm/hr.
The whole of the State is predicted to receive rainfall from the evening hours on Sept 29 and will experience so till the early morning of October 1. The average rainfall will range from 1.5mm to 5mm/hr.
Twin City Impact
As per the forecast, State Capital Bhubaneswar and Cuttack may record rainfall in the range of 4-5mm/hr during the night hours on Sept 29 and also during the early morning hours, evening to night hours on Sept 30.