With Odisha Health Minister Naba Das himself having been detected Covid-19 positive on Friday, the emerging hotspots in the State during the Third Wave seems clearly written on the wall.
As per the latest available data, during the week ending on January 6, 2021, as many as three districts in the State have manufactured a weekly Test Positive Rate (TPR) of over 5 percent.
The home district of State Health Minister, Jharsuguda, has registered a weekly TPR of 5.15 percent. Besides, the adjoining Sundargarh district has recorded a weekly TPR of nearly 6 percent. Incidentally, Sundargarh along with Jharsuguda were the two worst hit districts in western Odisha during the second wave.
Third Wave Trigger - By Delta Or Omicron?
Since Odisha is yet to deploy the S-gene drop method to figure out Omicron at the community level, the genome sequencing data only sheds little light on the Omicron trigger factor behind the third wave surge.
However, given that the Omicron proportion in total genomes sequenced till Jan 6 has been only around 11 percent, it seems the Delta variant is also behind the big numbers the State is recording daily.
Moreover, the genome sequencing data for the country shows the Omicron variant constituted only around 33 percent of the total genome sequenced.
Delta Re-Coup In Odisha?
If the genome sequencing data is to be relied on, and when seen in tandem with the Odisha Health Minister testing positive, Omicron is yet to be detected in any sample from Jharsuguda. This then indicates a Delta re-coup in the State.
Is it Possible?
As per the US-based Centre For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in the event of people not adhering to Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, and if they are unvaccinated, the risk of Delta infection will be very high. But in fully immunised individuals, the symptoms will be asymptomatic to mild/moderate, not severe. Odisha Health Minister Naba Kishore Das is fully inoculated.
In the given backdrop, here's a reality check on the emerging hotspots of the third wave in the State and the unvaccinated population.
- Cuttack - Jan 1, 2022 - Daily Caseload was 45; Jan 6, 2022 - The number is up by 324 percent to touch 191.
- The fully vaccinated population in the district is a mere 38.73 percent. With only one-third of the population immunised, Delta risk and hospitalisation will be high in the district.
- The test positivity rate of the district is nearing the 5 percent mark (4.71 percent).
- Sundargarh - Jan 1, 2022 - The new cases detected were 38; Jan 6, 2022: Daily caseload up by 1094 percent to touch 454.
- The fully immunised proportion in the district as of date is estimated at only 39.36 percent. Delta vulnerability risk very high. Genome sequencing data from the district has also indicated the presence of the Delta variant in samples.
- Jharsuguda - Jan1, 2022 - The daily caseload was only 15. Jan 6, 2022 - The big numbers jumped by 606 percent. Genome sequencing data of Odisha Health Minister's home district reveals the presence of Delta sub-lineage AY.44.
- The fully inoculated population in the district stood at 54.07 percent. Nearly two-fifths of the population are vulnerable to Delta.
- Sambalpur: Jan 1, 2022 - The daily caseload was 15. Jan 6, 2022 - Number of new cases detected 179, which is up by 1093 percent.
- The immunised population in the district is estimated at 56.32 percent, leaving nearly 2 in every 5 vulnerable to Delta attack.
The test positivity rate is on the rise in the districts of Bhadrak (4.90 percent) and Puri (4.58 percent). New cases in Puri jumped to 54 today from 14 on Jan 1, 2022.