With the sea surface temperature in the whole of Bay of Bengal remaining red hot at 30 deg C, which then is cooking up a very high tropical cyclone heat potential of over 90 - 150 kilojoules across the sea, it seems the Bay is rolling out a red carpet for cyclone genesis in the month of December.
And this cyclonic affinity of the Bay of Bengal poses a big threat to the eastern coastal states of the country, including Odisha.
Showing a rare consensus, almost all the lead Met Models - NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS-G3, INCOIS, IMD - have predicted cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal between Nov 30-Dec 3. And the consensus prediction is a low pressure area will form on Nov 30 close to Nicobar islands and will develop into a well-marked low in the next 18-hours.
Will Severe Cyclone Take Birth?
A look at the parameters of model predictions provide a hint about the type of cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal and also its intensity.
As per the model data of NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS-G3 and INCOIS, as the system will move to the south Bay of Bengal from the Andaman seas, an intensification will happen. And the intensified system is predicted to move in the northwest direction towards the central Andhra Pradesh coast.
However, a look at the model parameters reveals that the system is unlikely to undergo rapid intensification. The central pressure is predicted to hover between 990 - 1000 Mb. And the wind speed associated with the system is predicted to hover at around 83 km/hr. The predicted system will intensify into a cyclonic storm, but not of a severe category.
Place of Landfall
As per the INCOIS prediction, the predicted cyclonic storm will take a hit between Krishna and East Godavari districts during the midnight hours on December 4.
In consensus with INCOIS, ECMWF forecast also predicts the cyclonic storm making landfall between the Krishna and East Godavari districts in the mid-night hours on Dec 4.
However, the ACCESS G3 and NCEP-GFS, while predicting that though the cyclonic storm will move close to the Andhra Pradesh coast (around Kakinada) will take a curve in a northeast direction and move along the Odisha coast to make landfall in south 24 Parganas district in West Bengal on Dec 4-5.
As per their forecast, the northwest wind will deflect the cyclonic storm towards the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts.
Under the impact of the system, Odisha will witness rainfall from the morning hours of Dec 3 onwards. By the morning hours of Dec 4, moderate to very heavy rains were predicted in Bhubaneswar and Cuttack.
On December 4, nearly half of the State is predicted to record moderate to heavy rainfall. The rainfall is predicted across the coastal districts Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar. Puri may witness heavy rainfall.
On Dec 5, the whole of the State is predicted to record moderate to very heavy rainfall under the impact of the system.
While NCEP predicts rainfall in the range of 50-100mm per 24 hour, IMD predicts rainfall in the range of 40-70 mm per 24 hour.
A forecast of heavy rainfall is predicted for the districts of Sambalpur, Deogarh, Angul, Dhenkanal on Dec 6.
Moreover, the coastal districts are predicted to witness a surface wind speed of 40-50 Kmph on Dec 4-6.
As per NCEP-GFS, State Capital Bhubaneswar may record a whopping around 70 mm per 24 hours on Dec 4. The gusting wind speed in Bhubaneswar will be in the range of 33 - 57 kmph between Dec 4 and 5. The State Capital skyline will turn overcast from Dec 3.
Blow To Farmers
Even as the system is not predicted to make landfall in Odisha, the amount of rainfall and wind speed predicted are enough to damage the paddy crop ready for harvesting in the coastal districts.
The State government has to work out a contingency plan to save the farmers' hard-earned produce. Severe crop loss poses the risk of farm distress and suicides.