With the deep depression, 05 B (precursor of Cyclone Jawad), is currently moving at over 20km/hr, the big breaking is Cyclone Jawad will make landfall to the south of Puri around 36 hrs from now.
The consensus data of all the lead Met models - INCOIS, IMD, NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS-G3 and JTWC - is Cyclone Jawad will make landfall to the south of Puri at around 11:30 hours on Sunday. Post the landfall, the system will pass over Jagatsinghpur and adjoining Kendrapada districts, only to emerge into the northwest Bay of Bengal. The weakened system will then head for West Bengal.
Here is the Cyclone Jawad Timeline.
- December 3, Around Midnight: Cyclone Jawad will take shape when the system will be at a distance of over 260 km approximately from Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh.
- Post acquiring the cyclonic status, the system will move in a northward direction.
- December 4, Around Mid day Hours: Cyclone Jawad will be just around 137 km from Vishakapatnam, where it will take a northeast turn and head towards Gopalpur.
- December 4, Around Midnight Hours: Cyclone Jawad at just 62 km away from Srikakulam will take further north east curve and head towards Odisha coast.
- December 5, Around Midday Hours: The cyclonic system, when will be just 30 km from Gopalpur will move further northeast.
- December 5, Afternoon Hours (12PM onwards):Cyclone Jawad will simply hit into the landmass of Odisha. And it seems moving close to Chilka lake, the cycclonic system will make landfall to the south of Puri town in Odisha.
- December 6 Morning (around 11 AM): A weakened Cyclone Jawad will emerge as a depression into the northwest Bay of Bengal, very close to Bhadrak coastline, only to head towards West Bengal's Purvi (East) Medinipur district.
Cyclone Jawad Impact
- December 4 morning hours very heavy rain to lash Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh.
- Rain to continue in the district in the afternoon hours, only to taper down during the night hours.
- December 4 morning hours, very heavy rainfall in Odisha's Ganjam. The day will record more than 10 cm rainfall.
- In Ganjam district, rainfall will take a pause from Sunday afternoon hours.
- From night hours of December 4, very heavy rain to lash the Puri district. The district may record 10-20cm rainfall in the night hours.
- Heavy rain to continue in the morning hours. And the wind speed will be gusting at around 80-100kmph from the midnight hours till the Sunday morning hours. It is only district in Odisha that is predicted to experience high gusty wind.
- As per JTWC, over 50 kmph wind to sweep the districts of Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada till Monday morning.
- The consensus model data of INCOIS, NCEP, ECMWF and ACCESS-G3 is, as per the latest conditions, the districts that will bear the Cyclone Jawad brunt is Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada and Bhadrak.