The Third Wave in India could have taken a toll on over 1 lakh lives. But Covishield and Covaxin have saved a massive 93k lives. For the vaccines, Odisha has prevented 673 Covid-19 fatalities in the State.
As per the SBI report, Based on the 2-SLS model, COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 90,000 deaths during the third wave (28 Dec 2021 to 31 Jan 2022). About 14,756 COVID-19 deaths have occurred in India during the 3rd Wave; whereas the model has projected about 93,000 deaths would have occurred without the vaccines.
Detailing further, the SBI report says, " In order to understand the importance of vaccines, we tested a two-stage least square (2-SLS) panel model with 20-major states considering the daily data during the 3rd Wave, i.e, from 28 December 2021 to 31 January 2022."
The report then added that in this 2SLS regression, we first regressed the state-wise test data on the population to gauge the number of tests that should have been done given the population difference. In Stage 2, the number of confirmed cases was regressed on estimated test numbers calculated to arrive at a model estimate of a number of cases if the tests were done in accordance with the population size.
"We then used the fatality rate on the number of cases arrived at, to get an idea on the number of lives saved during the 3rd wave of the pandemic if there was no vaccine available," the report then concluded.
Lives In Odisha Saved
A look at the SBI report reveals that Odisha had reported 141 deaths between Dec 28, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022. And as of Jan 31, 2022, the proportion of fully vaccinated populace in the State stood at 76 percent.
As per the report, vaccines saved a high of 37k lives in Maharashtra and over 11k in Delhi. (See the state-wise chart below).
As per the SBI's 2-SLS model, the estimated deaths in Odisha during the third wave period of Dec 28-Jan31 could have been a high of 814. But the actual number of reported deaths by Jan end was 141. As a consequence, the report says the State has saved a total of 673 lives in the third wave.
Omicron Toll Chart
The third wave has taken a toll on human lives. If the SBI report is to be believed, the fatality count in the State could have been much higher but for the vaccines.
As per Odisha Health Department data, Odisha had recorded 150 deaths in January and a whopping 347 fatalities between Feb 1 and 18.
In contrast, the month of December 2021 had recorded only 47 Covid-19 mortalities.
The above Covid-19 toll chart in Odisha clearly hints at a rise in pandemic deaths in the State during the third wave.
Deaths In First Vs Second Vs Third
A cursory glance at the data available with the State Health Department, Odisha had recorded nearly 1780 deaths during the peak of the First Wave.
In the Second Wave, the official data shows that the State had recorded 6,094 deaths during the peak period of the disastrous wave.
As of Feb 18, 2022, the total toll in the Third Wave in the State stood at 521.
The above comparison shows that the total Covid-19 mortalities in the State has been lowest in the Third Wave.
Significantly, during the First Wave, fully vaccination status in the State was zero percent. The fully vaccinated population during the peak of the Second-wave in the State was around 2-3 percent.
In contrast, the fully inoculated population in the State during the peak of the third wave was a massive 76 percent.