With the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, the Indian Ocean region's top tropical cyclone forecasting agency, today having predicted the formation of a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over the north Andaman sea and neighbourhood region in the next 48 hours, the Australian Meteorology Centre predicts the formation of Depression on and around October 15.
As per the Australian Meterology's weather charts, a low pressure area will form by Monday morning very close to Andaman islands. And the system is predicted to become more marked by the night of Oct 13. The system will grow to a well-marked system by Thursday (Oct 14) night.
The system, as per the model of the Australian Weather Department, is predicted to intensify into a depression by the evening of October 15 (Friday) - the day it will cross the land between Palasa and Puri on Friday night.
If the ACCESS-G3 model of the Australian Weather Department is to be believed, the districts right in south Odisha, south coastal (Ganjam to Puri) will record a massive 100mm rainfall on Friday evening to night hours.
However, the IMD-GFS model predicts heavy in Andhra Pradesh on Oct 15, and only moderate rainfall in the south and south coastal districts in Odisha. The model forecast of INCOIS also predicts rainfall in Andhrapradesh and south Odisha on Oct 15.
As per the Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology model forecast, there is a 70 per cent probability of cyclogenesis in the bay of Bengal. And the model forecasts the track of the intensified system between Macchilipatnam and Vishakapatnam.
But the NCEP-GFS in its latest weather chart has again predicted an extremely severe cyclone hitting Odisha between Puri and Jagatsinghpur on October 17-18.
As per the NCEP data, Bhubaneswar is predicted to record 137 mm accumulated rainfall in 3hours on October 18.
IMD Model Forecast
The numerical model of IMD also predicts cyclogenesis on and around October 18. But the model predicts the system making landfall between West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts on and October 17-18.
Monsoon Exit From Odisha
As per an analysis of all the global met models, Odisha will not be going to witness any rainfall from October 23. Moreover, by the time an anticyclone will be over the State's airs. Therefore, a nip in the air is likely from Oct 25-26.
However, till Oct 17, the State has to bear a very hot and humid environment. The mean surface temperature in coastal and central districts in the State is predicted to remain at around 28-30 deg C.