3rd Wave In Odisha: Data Reveals High Community Transmission Of Omicron In Bhubaneswar

The State Capital Bhubaneswar has today crossed the Covid-19 danger level. By detecting 400 cases on January 6, the daily test positivity rate in the city has now zoomed to around 5.4 percent.

As the WHO has already warned that if Test Positivity Rate (TPR) hovers over 5 percent, then the transmission of the virus is growing fast and it will lead to an explosive state sooner than later. Moreover, WHO has further alerted that over 5 percent of TPR means, the virus is spreading in the community.

A look at Union Health Ministry data suggests that Bhubaneswar city has already been recording a weekly positivity rate of over 5 percent. Data revealed that in the week ending on Jan5, the State Capital had a TPR of over 5 percent.

In such a tense backdrop, the Capital city on Thursday recorded 400 new confirmed cases. Within a span of 48-hours, the Capital city witnessed a nearly 3.5 times growth in the Covid cases. Such a lightning speed growth rate does hint at community transmission in the State Capital.

Community Transmission On?

A look at the WHO Covid epidemiological indicators to ascertain community spread reveals big.   As per the top health body's epidemiologists, if the number of Covid-19 cases per lakh per day in a region is over 5, then the virus is gaining an 'uncontrolled substantial spread' there.

Going by the calculation, the weekly (Dec 31- Jan 6) average new positive cases per capita in the State Capital has been around 178 per day. And the number of new Covid cases per lakh population per day is estimated at a high of 14.52.

According to the WHO epidemiological indicators, if the number of Covid-19 cases per lakh per day is over 5, then the virus is stated to be gaining an explosive spread in the community.

Given that the value for the State Capital is measured at over 14, it seems very clear that the virus is again spreading in the community in the Capital city in a big way.

Ground Level Evidence

Since Jan 1, 2022, the number of micro containment zones in the State Capital has zoomed to over 20. The sharp spurt in the containment zones vindicates the WHO identified epidemiological indicators that point at rapid community transmission in Odisha's State Capital.

A glance at the infected age group reveals that maximum infections in the city have been reported in the age group of 19-40 years, followed by 0-18 years. The proportion of the age group 19-40 years in the new infections have been around 75 percent.

Significantly, the BMC had earlier claimed that by August end, the eligible population in the age group of over 18 years have been brought under fully vaccinated category.

One big food for thought, as revealed by the data with BMC, the rate of infection among the elderly (60+) and 41-60 has been lower this time.

While in the first wave the majority of infections were reported in the age group of 40-60 years and above 60-plus, in the delta-led second wave, large scale infections were reported in the age group of 30-50 years.

In the third wave, initial data suggests a high infection rate in the age group of 19-40 years.