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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

News Highlights

  • The net reproduction number in the country has dropped to 1.1 on January 18 from 2.24 on Jan 13 and 4.03 on Jan 9.
  • The filtered daily growth rate of the cases at the national level is down at 3.02 percent on Jan 18 as against 20.2 percent on Jan 13 and 34.9 percent on Jan 9,
  • The daily COVID cases in India can be expected to peak on January 24 at just under 3,30,000 reported cases in terms of its underlying trend value
  • In the backdrop of the encouraging indicators and after a case study of other states in the country, it seems Odisha will be recording the third wave peak between Jan 29-31.

With the daily caseload in the country touching a high of 3.17 lakh on Thursday, the hunch here is will the viral numbers grow past the second wave's peak of 4.41 lakh, given that the Omicron spread factor is 3-4-times that of the Delta?

As per the Union Health Ministry data, the weekly positive rate as on Jan 20, 2022, is estimated high at 15.91 percent. The daily positivity rate stands higher at 16.41 percent as against 15.13 percent on Jan 19. The active cases in the country have increased to over 19.24 lakhs on Thursday. Moreover, in the last 24 hours, 491 succumbed to the virus as against 284 deaths on Jan 1, 2022.

The data analysis reveals that while 207 persons died of the disease during the last 19-days in the country, the toll has clocked a high growth rate of around 73 percent between Jan 1 and 19.

In the given scenario, is the country going to see the third wave tail sooner or a little later?

India Peak When?

As per the data released by the report of Cambridge University, Delhi-based Health System Transformation Portal and UK-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the net reproduction number in the country has dropped to 1.1 on January 18 from 2.24 on Jan 13 and 4.03 on Jan 9.

The report further added that as the filtered daily growth rate of the cases at the national level is down at 3.02 percent on Jan 18 as against 20.2 percent on Jan 13 and 34.9 percent on Jan 9, the daily COVID cases in India can be expected to peak on January 24 at just under 3,30,000 reported cases in terms of its underlying trend value. By the end of January, the trend value of reported daily cases will drop below 3 lakh, the report predicted.

Odisha Peak Time

Even as the daily caseload in the State is maintaining its over 10k trend for the last 8-days, the news of respite is the net reproduction value in the State has tumbled down to 1.37 percent from 5.01 on Jan 13, 2022.

Moreover, the filtered daily growth rate that was measured at around 40 percent in the week ended on Jan 13, seems to have hurtled down to around 10.4 percent.

Besides, the doubling rate measured on the week ending on Jan 18 has risen to 5 days from 3 days on Jan 13.

In the backdrop of the encouraging indicators and after a case study of other states in the country, it seems Odisha will be recording the third wave peak between Jan 29-31.

Like in the country, the daily caseload in the State is unlikely to touch a high of  20,000 on the peak day. The third wave peak in the State will record daily cases in the range of 15k.

The Rider

However, the rider here is the peak time is based on the maths of the disease epidemiology. But the cases may go haywire if the Covid measures stand flouted in the State as Odisha is in the poll mode now. There is a high risk of rural spread. Viruses in rural Odisha may bring havoc.

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