Is Second Wave Over In Odisha? Wait Till July, Says IIT Kanpur

Even as the second wave in Odisha has taken a downslide, the IIT Kanpur has put the State along with West Bengal and north-eastern states in the category of 'situation is yet to saturate'. The top research institute has, therefore, called for caution while easing restrictions.

In its latest situation update, as of June 19,  the ace Covid-19 model forecaster in the country has put the net reproduction value (R0) or the rate of transmission at 0.8 - which shows that the spread of the virus in the State is under check.

Data shows the transmission rate (R0) in the State during mid-April had been around 1.8.  The R0 in the State started picking up in mid-March itself and had remained above one.

As per WHO,  if the R0 value remains above 1 and on the upswing, then the outbreak is happening briskly and getting widespread. But if the number falls below 1 and on the downslide, then the outbreak is tapering off from the region.

R0 Shows End Of Second Wave In Odisha?

Taking into consideration the WHO parameters on the rate of transmission, the second wave outbreak in the State seems to be on its way out. But the test positive rate (TPR) in the State, as per IIT Kanpur, has been around 5.8 per cent on June 19. WHO mandates that the TPR should remain below 5 per cent for 14-days. For which, the highly-rated Covid-19 model forecaster of the country has put Odisha in the category of 'Unsaturated state'.

Note: The TPR in Odisha today has been around 5.2 per cent.

Pandemic In 'Decay State' In Odisha  

Terming that the pandemic in Odisha is in a 'decay state', the model predicts that the daily cases in the State will drop to around 1,794 by July 1st week. It has made this forecast based on the current net reproduction rate of 0.8.

Peak Vs Post Peak Picture

As per the IIT-K report, based on a 7-day average, Odisha reported a maximum of 11,657 cases on 22-May-2021. And the peak fatality was observed on the week ending June 10 - when a maximum of 44 deaths daily took place.

• The daily count of infections has reduced by 69.1 % compared to its value at its peak.
• The active case has also gone down by 61.1 % from its peak value of 98991 on date 23-May-2021.
• The current case fatality rate based on average daily data is 1.1 %.

Is Odisha Worse Hit In Second Wave?

A detailed glance at the report shows Odisha was hit badly in the second wave. The State figured along with the group of states in the country that had TPR of above 20 per cent. The list of high positivity in the country during  the second wave are:

• Goa
• Karnataka
• Kerala
• West Bengal
• Tamil Nadu
• Odisha
• Northeast states.

In the second wave, the report observed that a total of 5.37883 lakh new cases has been reported in Odisha - which is more than 60 per cent of the combined positives in the State during both waves.

However, to the satisfaction of the State, Odisha has the lowest case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.2 per cent in the country, says IIT Kanpur report.

• A high of 1,807 deaths has taken place in Odisha during the second wave. The total deaths during the wave have been nearly 49 per cent of the combined deaths in both waves.

• Deaths with no co-morbidities in Odisha has been around 70 per cent of the total deaths between May and June 22.
• With such a high proportion of deaths with no co-morbidities, Odisha tops the country.
• Nearly 40 per cent of fatalities having no co-morbidities belong to an age group of below 50-years.

Worst Hit District In Odisha  

• Though Khordha district ( read as Bhubaneswar) sits at the top with the highest number of cases (77008) and deaths (229), it's Kalahandi that is the worst hit for having the highest case fatality rate in the State.
• As per IIT-K report, while Kalahandi reported only 132 deaths but the case fatality rate in the second wave has been near 1 per cent (0.93%) vis-a-vis Khordha's 0.29 per cent.
• The current case fatality rate in Kalahandi based on average daily data, as per the report, stood high at 8.9 per cent vis-a-vis 1 per cent in Khordha.
• The current case fatality rate based on average daily data in Baragarh is 2.6 per cent.
• The value has been 1.4 per cent in Balangir, Nuapada (4.5%) and Sudargarh (3.9%).
• 14 districts carry the Covid-19 burden in the State. And 7 (Kalahandi, Angul, Jhasuguda, Puri, Balangir, Sundargarh, Nuapada) districts have a CFR higher than state average.