OTV Foresight 2026: Consumer operating leverage & small-business finance bolster India’s growth, says Gaurav Dalmia

India is fast emerging as a ‘standout economy’ in an otherwise slow and uncertain global environment, said Gaurav Dalmia, Chairman of Dalmia Group Holdings, while speaking at ‘OTV Foresight 2026’ on Tuesday. He highlighted that while global growth remains below three percent amid a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, India continues to gain prominence on the global stage.

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Speaking during a session titled ‘India as a Super Power and the role of states’, Gaurav Dalmia, Chairman of the Dalmia Group Holdings, expressed, “I see in the tech world, today’s chance for India and China. India, of course, is gaining a prominent position in world affairs, compared to what it was twenty years ago. So, if you look at the world today, the world is growing at sub three percent, which is slow growth for the world. The 2026 forecast is about the same. At the same time, we are in what is often called a VUCA world. VUCA is an acronym that stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity.”

Dalmia noted that, unlike typical VUCA periods, where oil prices rise due to supply fears, the current slowdown has kept oil prices relatively low, creating a risky combination for the global economy. Against this backdrop, India’s projected economic growth of 7.3 percent in 2026, as per IMF estimates, with some forecasts nearing 8%, presents a sharp contrast.

“Normally, in the VUCA times, if you use oil as a proxy, oil prices go up because of fear of shortage of supply and so on and so forth. But because the world economy is slow, oil is actually available at a low price today. We have a VUCA world and slow growth, which is a very dangerous and bad combination for the world. In this environment, India stands out. So, if you look at the IMF forecast of economic growth for India, which is for 2026, it is 7.3 percent. Somebody else has forecasted a growth of around eight percent. In a world which is growing at three percent, that is a refreshing change for a large economy like India. There are two forces that will continue this upward trajectory of India, even though there may be short-term cycles that we may see,” Chairman Gaurav Dalmia said.

The head of Dalmia Group Holdings identified two major forces sustaining India’s upward trajectory. The first is rising disposable income among Indian consumers, where modest real wage growth leads to disproportionately higher spending power. The second is increasing financial penetration among small businesses, which has been strengthening the country’s economic engine and positioning India as a resilient growth leader.

“The first force is the operating leverage of Indian consumers. Think of an average Indian making a hundred rupees or hundred units of income. Let’s assume that 80 percent of it goes away in what we often call ‘Roti, Kapda aur Makan’. The remaining 20 percent of it is disposable income, with which one buys a washing machine, a scooter, or a refrigerator or whatever. The person gets 10 percent increment at the end of the year, around four percent of which is inflation. Let’s say the person gets a real wage growth of nearly five per cent. This income moves from 100 to 105 in real terms. But the disposable income moves from 20 to 25 percent. There are millions of Indians who are crossing the thresholds where the nominal wage growth may be 9-10 per cent, the real wage growth may be five percent, but the disposable income growth is over 20 percent,” Chairman Gaurav Dalmia stated.

“This is why the industries that are boring in the Western world are exciting industries in India. What I think, the second bet (force) that will keep our economic engine alive is the penetration of finances into small businesses. These two forces together will truly make India stand out in the world,” the head of Dalmia Group Holdings added.