India among worst hit as extreme heat risks rise sharply: Oxford study

A new study by researchers at the University of Oxford has warned that accelerating global warming could expose nearly half of the world’s population to dangerously high temperatures within the next few decades. According to the analysis, if average global temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, around 3.79 billion people could be living under extreme heat conditions by 2050.

Scientists say the threat is not limited to the distant future. As the planet moves closer to the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set under the Paris Agreement, heat exposure is expected to increase rapidly. In 2010, extreme heat affected about 23 per cent of the global population, a figure projected to rise to 41 per cent in the coming years, significantly affecting densely populated countries like India, according to reports by NDTV.

India Among Most Exposed Nations

According to the Oxford study, the highest number of people exposed to extreme heat will be in populous countries, including India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines. While some nations such as the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil may see the fastest rise in heat exposure, India’s large population makes it particularly vulnerable to widespread impacts.

Infrastructure and Social Impact Concerns

Lead author Dr Jesus Lizana said most changes in heating and cooling demand will occur even before the 1.5-degree Celsius limit is reached, indicating the need for earlier adaptation than policymakers often anticipate. The study warns that buildings and energy systems in cooler regions are poorly equipped to handle prolonged heat, which could result in a sharp rise in air-conditioning demand.

Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and head of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, further cautioned that overshooting the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold could have wide-ranging consequences, affecting public health, education, migration and agriculture, and underscoring the urgency of climate preparedness and mitigation efforts.