Heat to tighten its grip across India over the next fortnight

As February draws to a close, India is poised to step steadily into warmer days, with the next two weeks likely to bring a pronounced rise in temperatures across large parts of the country. The latest extended range forecast for Week 1 (February 26–March 4) and Week 2 (March 5–11) signals an expanding footprint of above-normal heat, particularly across northern and western India.

Week 1: The Gradual Build-Up (Feb 26 – March 4)

The first signs of intensifying heat will be felt across the plains of Northwest India, where maximum temperatures are expected to climb gradually by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius over the next seven days. By the end of the week, many areas in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh could see daytime temperatures hovering 3 to 5 degrees above normal, marking an early spike ahead of the typical summer surge.

Moving westward, Maharashtra is set to experience a similar warming pattern. Daytime temperatures are forecast to rise by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius over the next five days, before stabilising at elevated levels.

In Gujarat, however, the week will begin on a slightly cooler note. Maximum temperatures may dip by around 2 degrees Celsius over the next three days, offering brief respite. But that relief is expected to be short-lived, with a sharp rebound of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius in the following four days.

Across Central India, the heat will build steadily. States such as Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to witness a consistent 3 to 5 degree Celsius rise through the week, intensifying daytime warmth.

In East India, the story begins calmly, with little change expected during the first two days. But as the week progresses, temperatures are forecast to rise gradually by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius, aligning the region with the broader warming trend.

By the close of Week 1, positive temperature departures — meaning temperatures above seasonal averages — are likely to spread across West, Central, East and northern Peninsular India, with many areas recording 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

Week 2: Heat Expands Its Reach (March 5 – 11)

The second week is expected to consolidate and expand this warming pattern. Forecasts suggest that most parts of the country will experience maximum temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal, pointing to a widespread intensification of heat.

The notable exception will be Central and adjoining Peninsular India, where daytime temperatures are likely to remain near normal or marginally below normal by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, creating a relative contrast to the rest of the country.

Night-time temperatures will tell a slightly different story.

While Northwest and Northeast India are expected to experience warmer nights, with minimum temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal, parts of East, Central and Peninsular India may see cooler-than-normal nights by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius. This divergence could lead to sharper day–night temperature variations in some regions.

An Early Signal of Summer

Taken together, the two-week outlook suggests that India is entering an early phase of seasonal transition, with northern and western regions likely to feel the heat more intensely and sooner than usual. The steady rise in maximum temperatures — particularly in Northwest India — could signal the beginning of pre-summer heat stress conditions.

As March approaches, meteorologists advise close monitoring of updates, as sustained above-normal temperatures could have implications for agriculture, water demand, and public health in the weeks ahead.

The coming fortnight, it seems, will mark the first decisive turn toward summer 2026.