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Bhubaneswar: The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a deep depression over southwest BoB and then further into a cyclonic storm 'Nivar' Tuesday morning. At 0830 hours today, it lay centred over southwest BoB about 410km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450km southeast of Chennai. Reports suggest that the cyclonic storm is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours.
As per the latest weather bulletin of the IMD issued in the afternoon, it is very likely to move west-north-westwards for the next 12 hours and then north-westwards. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry in the evening of November 25 (tomorrow) as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.
Forecast and warnings for Odisha in association with this system:
The Regional MeT Centre has clearly stated that Nivar Cyclone will have no direct impact over the districts of Odisha neither there is any warning for the State. However, some light to moderate rainfall activity is likely to occur in some districts of Odisha in the next two days.
On November 25, light to moderate rainfall or thundershower is very likely at a few places over Malkangiri, Rayagada, Gajapati, Koraput, Ganjam and at isolated places over rest of the districts. Almost similar predictions were seen for November 26. Light to moderate rainfall or thundershower is very likely at many places over the aforementioned districts in southern Odisha and at isolated places over rest of the districts.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of southwest and adjoining West-central Bay of Bengal till November 25.
What impact will Nivar have on other coastal States?
WIND SPEED: As per the prediction, the current wind speed would further increase to 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over the southwest Bay of Bengal from November 25 morning for the subsequent 18 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is prevailing along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and touch 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph along and off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram and Chengalpattu districts). Wind speed of 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph is very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts during forenoon to the night of November 25. Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph is very likely over adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and along and off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore and Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off districts of south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during forenoon to the night of Nov 25.
DAMAGE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL DISTRICTS OF TN, PUDUCHERRY AND ADJOINING ANDHRA PRADESH:
Under the impact of the cyclone Nivar, major damage will be caused to thatched houses and huts with a possibility of rooftops being blown off, unattached metal sheets might also fly. It is also expected that Nirva might cause damage to power and communication lines. This apart, major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads is predicted. Moreover, flooding of escape routes, breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees, severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops and orchards, major damage to coastal crops and damage to embankments/ salt pans could be caused.
A red warning has been issued for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on November 25 (tomorrow). The forecast suggests that rainfall will occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places.
SEA CONDITION: Sea condition is high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become very high over the southwest Bay of Bengal tonight. The sea condition would be very high over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts and high along and off south Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts and also over Gulf of Mannar on November 25.
STORM SURGE WARNING: Tidal wave of about one mt height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu and Puducherry near the place of landfall.
WARNING FOR FISHERMEN: There will be a total suspension of fishing operations, as such fishermen are advised not to venture into Southwest and adjoining west-central and the southeast Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mannar and along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during November 24-25. Those fishermen already out at sea are advised to return to the coast and avoid the mentioned sea areas. Coastal hutment dwellers will be moved to safer places while people in the areas likely to be affected have been asked to remain indoors.
