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Devbrat Patnaik

Bhubaneswar: The migrant influx from the n-CoV hotbeds, particularly Gujarat (Surat), West Bengal, Kerala, TN and Karnataka, seems to have unsettled the COVID management by the State administration to a large extent.

Reportedly, the first lot of Odia migrants from Surat reached Ganjam district on April 30. As on May 2, Odisha's recovery rate was 35.2% while case doubling rate stood at 10.5 days.

The maiden cases involving returnees started popping up from May 3 when two of them were tested positive in Ganjam. On May 3, Odisha’s recovery rate (RR) still was considerably high at 36.8 per cent vis-a-vis the country’s recovery rate of 26.59 per cent. COVID dashboard data for the day reveals that Odisha had 163 confirmed cases with 60 recoveries.

[caption id="attachment_450190" align="aligncenter" width="826"]Odisha covid-19 Source: COVID Dashboard[/caption]

The State witnessed a drastic dip in RR thereafter, as in the next 6 days a mere 8 cases of recoveries came to the fore as against 189 more positive COVID cases. The biggest single-day spike of 68 cases was reported on Saturday. Such a sudden spurt has dragged Odisha’s recovery rate below the national average which has seen a steady growth over the last 10 days.

[caption id="attachment_450191" align="aligncenter" width="827"]Odisha latest covid19 positive Source: COVID Dashboard[/caption]

The current standings indicate that Odisha’s cure rate of 19.3% is far below the country’s rate of 30.5%. This can be ascertained from the fact that 62769 COVID cases have been reported from across the country among which 19163 have recovered.

Here's another insight into Odisha's COVID picture. Bhubaneswar still has 16 active cases. Three cases were reported two days back while another person who was tested positive for the virus on April 29 has succumbed to the disease. This means there are as many as 13 cases detected on or before April 14 who are yet to recover.

However, the big respite for the State is the fatality rate which stands at 0.85% in comparison to national’s 3.33%. “Our fatality rate continues to be around 3.3% and the recovery rate is nearing 30%, these are very good indicators. The doubling rate for last 3 days has been about 11 days, and for last 7 days it has been 9.9 days,” said Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan on Saturday while presenting the national data.

So far, 52723 migrants have returned to Odisha from other States while Ganjam alone accounts for over 30000 returnees. With thousands in queue to return to Odisha in the coming days, the State’s RR is very likely to sink further.

Now take a look at the tally of some of the worst-affected States. Maharashtra’s positive count has reached 20223 while 3800 of them have recovered; as such the RR is now 18.79%. Similarly, West Bengal has a cure rate of 20.82% with 372 recoveries out of 1786 confirmed cases. The RR of two other COVID-hit States of Gujarat and Delhi stand at 26.8% and 30.8%, respectively.
Odisha’s neighbour Andhra has a recovery rate of 45.95%. Here, 887 patients have been cured so far among 1930 cases. Chhattisgarh with 59 positive cases till now has seen a RR as high as 72.88%. With 156 cases and 52 recoveries so far, Jharkhand’s RR stands at 33.3%. Almost half of the cases in Karnataka have recovered. The State’s RR on May 9 was 48.6%.

On Saturday, the Health Ministry issued a revised discharge policy for COVID-19 patients. It said the patients severely ill will have to test negative through RT-PCR test, and only then they will be discharged from hospital. Patients having mild, very mild and pre-symptomatic and also moderate cases of Covid-19 can be discharged without test. The Ministry said, "The revised discharge policy is aligned with the guidelines on the 3-tier COVID facilities and the categorization of the patients based on clinical severity."

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