Odisha COVID R0 value grows to 3rd highest in country: IIT Delhi

Bhubaneswar: As Odisha recorded a massive 68 COVID positive cases in last 48 hours, the corona shocker is reproduction number or R₀ value (means rate of secondary infection) in the state is third highest in the country.  Now, one COVID positive individual is infecting nearly 2 other persons in Odisha.

This emerging big trend in the State has been measured by IIT Delhi's COVID tracking AICSEIR model. The model has calculated the R₀ value of all states, including Odisha, by taking into account the current confirmed COVID positive cases in the states.

It is the R₀ value that will determine the quantum of COVID surge in any State. And the major concern for the State is, the R₀ value as on May 4 here is estimated at 1.98, which means one positive person is infecting nearly 2 others. On May 4, Odisha had confirmed 170 COVID positive cases. The cases have grown in the meantime to touch 245 on May 7.

In April, the R0 value was estimated at around mere 1.1, which means the secondary infection rate was limited to only one individual. This is the reason behind the State's lower doubling rate during the month.

The key fallout of this higher R₀ value on Odisha is, COVID cases in Odisha will double at a very faster rate in May.

A glance at the state-wise data reveals that the R₀ value in Odisha now stands higher than many high-burden states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh. (See the image below)

As on May 4,the highest R₀ value in the country is measured in Bihar. The value is estimated at 2.95, means one COVID positive in Bihar infects three others. Jharkhand followed Bihar with a value of 2.13, reveals the IIT-Delhi COVID report. The higher R0 value in three prominent eastern states, including Odisha, hints at where the upcoming COVID surge is going to happen in the country.

Maharashtra, country's COVID capital, has a value of 1.88. The value for another high-burden state Gujarat is estimated at 1.79. Delhi has a value of mere 0.94. R₀ value for other high-burden states like TN, MP and Rajasthan is estimated at 0.95, 1.51 and 1.15, respectively.

The cases of COVID positives in the state are increasing quite briskly. When the IIT-D model has predicted that total COVID positives in Odisha would reach 244 by evening of May 10, the reality is State reported 245 cases on May 7 itself.

The prediction made by IIT-D is Odisha will record 813 COVID positive cases by the evening of May 24.