Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: Here is a big Corona breaking on Thursday. The growth graph of Covid-19 seems to have fallen flat in the country in the week number 8, since the detection of the first Covid-19 positive case.

Though the count of novel coronavirus keeps ticking upwards every day, a tumbling down in the growth rate of n-CoV cases every day in the country since March 23 (post Janta Curfew day) is clearly discernible.

Take a look at the graph. The n-CoV cases started growing at the rate of 31 per cent on March 20, 25 per cent on March 21 and 26 per cent on March 22 (Janta Curfew day). On March 23, when a lockdown was enforced by as many as 32 states and UTs, the growth rate of Covid-19 cases dropped to 19 per cent. The growth rate dipped further to 14 per cent on March 24.

covid-19 growth


On the 25th of March, when the whole country was brought under lockdown, the rate of growth of novel-coronavirus cases dropped further to 13 per cent.  And on March 26, the rate of growth fell further to around 7 per cent.

The above analysis crystal clearly points to falling flat of the Covid-19 growth curve in the country post janta curfew and enforcement of lockdown.

The number of Covid-19 positive cases recorded in country yesterday (Mar 25) stood at 70. And the positive cases today (Mar 26) at 43 till evening. As per reports, the Covid-19 count in the country will cross the 1000 mark as the number of suspects identified as on today stood at a massive 652.

Some unquiet numbers surfaced are: When the recovery rate in the world stood at 24 per cent as on today, the rate in India stood at mere 6.6 per cent. The total confirmed cases recorded till today has been 649. And the recovered cases stood at 43.

Consider this significant yardstick. An epidemic can be described as under control when the gap between new cases and new recoveries is very narrow.

In case of Covid-19 in India, the gap is yawning. As per data available, the widening of the gap started on March 18 and touches a new high on March 26.  For instance, on March 14, new cases were 8 and the recovered case stood at 1. But on March 26, new cases stood at 43 (till evening) and the recovered cases stood at mere 2.

A state-wise glance reveals more. Maharashtra has recorded 124 cases, recovered case is only 1. Similarly, Kerala recorded 118 cases, recovery observed in 4 cases.

Only Haryana has recorded a very strong recovery rate in India. The total positive cases in the State stood at 31, and recovery noticed in 11 cases.

Moreover, the Covid-19 death rate globally has increased from 3 per cent in March first week to 4.5 per cent as on March 26. In India, the mortality rate has also increased from below 1 per cent in March 2nd week to 2 per cent as on March 26.

The above analysis indicates how the mortality rate of Covid-19 globally, including India, have been on the ascent.

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