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Bhubaneswar: Post detection of first novel coronavirus positive in the State on March 16, the State on Tuesday recorded its first confirmed death. And the dubious distinction is shared by Bhubaneswar, Odisha's Covid-19 epicentre.
As per the information provided by State Health and Family Welfare department, a 72-year old male from Jharpada in Bhubaneswar, who was admitted to AIIMS with complaints of respiratory distress, died on April 6 (Monday). His sample tested Covid-19 positive today, said a release of State Health and Family Welfare department.
It seems April is proving hotter for Odisha. The count of Covid-19 positives in the State is increasing on daily basis, since beginning of the month of April. In just about a week's time (Apr 1-6), the total Covid-19 positives in the State swelled by 38. And total novel coronavirus positives tally is galloping fast towards the half-century mark. The total Covid-19 count on Tuesday stood at 42.
Why the month of April saw a sudden spike in Covid-19 cases in Odisha?
A closer look at the data shows a clear positive co-relation between rise in number of Covid-19 positives in the State and the increase in number of samples tested during the period April 1-6.
The big trend inferred from the April drift is Odisha in all probability will see the novel coronavirus positive counts to hover at around 100-mark by mid-April.
Odisha's rise in count looks imminent as chief minister Naveen Patnaik has directed the State health administration to scale up the total Covid-19 tests in the State to 1000/day.
Now, consider how the number of samples tested in Odisha demonstrate a positive co-relation to the rise in Covid-19 positive counts in the State.
A look at the State health ministry data shows Odisha saw a total of around 610 samples tested during the month of March, and the total Covid-19 positives detected stood at mere 4. The net positive rate (NPR) stood at 0.65 in March.
In contrast, during the time span of April 1-6, the total samples sent for Covid-19 testing totalled to 1,580. And the total novel coronavirus positive counts detected during the period rose to 38. The net positive rate (NPR) during April 1 - 6 is estimated at over 2.2 per cent.
The major observation from the above analysis shows that when the number of samples tested in Odisha rose by 2.5 times between March and April first week, the corresponding rise in net positive rate is estimated at around 3.3 times. The numbers clearly depict existence of a strong co-relation between increased samples testing and rise in positive counts in the State.
In the given context, when Odisha government took a decision on Monday to raise the sample testing capacity to 1000 everyday by April 10 from around 263/day as on April 1-6 and a paltry 20 tests per day during the month of March, a certain impact on Covid-19 count is discernible.
Moreover, taking into account the linear progression of cases, despite lockdown in State, mathematical model trends suggest the total novel coronavirus positive counts in Odisha may grow up to hover at around the 100-mark by mid-April.
