Macro environment conducive for RBI to cut rates
With the elections resulting in a decisive mandate, the attention will now shift to policy — both fiscal and monetary — with the key aim of spurring growth, boosting the slowing consumption and attracting private investment.
From a monetary policy perspective, the stated objective has been inflation-targeting and supportive of growth. Thus one can expect some structural measures from a liquidity perspective, strengthening of the financial system framework and of course looking at rates in the current context of low inflation and flagging growth.
The RBI has already announced a liquidity framework for NBFCs, has set up a committee to look at evolving a robust mortgage securitisation market and secondary market for asset sales, amongst others.
Inflation has been stable and even post spike in prices of vegetables and fruits, crude prices inflation is lower that the target set by the central bank.
So one can expect both liquidity measures and a rate cut. Rate cut expectation ranges from 25 bps to 50 bps. The central bank will see how the fiscal situation unfolds with the budget announcement and spending measures. It will also take into account global factors, trade tensions, crude price trends, geopolitical equations and the monsoon outlook.
So we can expect further liquidity measures, a rate cut and more structural strengthening measures in the monetary policy.