With very severe cyclonic storm Yaas having battered the Odisha coasts on May 26, after a gap of mere 17-days, the State will be going to witness a depression crossing its coast on June 13.
This will not be the end of the monsoon saga this year. The long-range forecasts by reputed models predict another possible monsoon low during the week of June 27 - July 4. And this time the low pressure may cross between south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast, bringing heavy rains for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
As per model forecasts, a low-pressure system is predicted to form over the north Bay of Bengal close to the Odisha coast on June 11.
Will LOPAR Grow To A Depression?
A cursory glance at the model predictions shows that the low-pressure area will develop into a depression on June 12. The central pressure of the system is predicted to remain at around 988 millibars. The model forecasts discount the possibility of the system developing into a deep depression.
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Where Depression Will Cross Land?
There seems to a near unanimity between all the models over the place of crossover by this year's first monsoon depression.
The model forecasts by IMD, CGEPS (MME), US-GFS, ECMWF indicate the depression to be crossing the Odisha coast between Puri and Jagatsinghpur. The prediction is the depression will veer towards the Odisha coast and cross the State's coast at around Puri during the early morning hours on June 13 (Sunday).
Weather To Be Stormy In Odisha?
A look at the wind predictions by various weather models shows the districts over which the core area of depression will pass see a wind speed of mere 10kmph. However, the districts that fall to the outside of the core zone of depression are predicted to record a wind speed of 28 -37kmph in the morning hours on June 13, when the system will cross the Odisha coast.
Districts in Core Zone: The districts that fall under the core zone of depression are: Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Khurda and Cuttack.
Districts in Non-Core Zone: The south coastal districts of Ganjam, southern districts like Gajapati, Raygada, central and western Odisha districts.
Rainfall Forecast
A look at the model outlook suggests that districts falling to the south of the depression will be recording heavy rainfall on June 13. Districts like Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Khordha, Cuttack, Malakngiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Balangir, Nuapada, Kandhamal and Nayagarh will be witnessing heavy rainfall. These districts may record an accumulated rainfall of around 90-100 mm in 24 hours.
Very heavy rainfall is predicted at some places in the districts of Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Boudh, Bolangir and Nuapada on June 13.
The rainfall is predicted to extend up to districts like Sonepur, Sambalpur and Bargarh on the next Sunday. Districts like Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, parts of Sambalpur and Deogarh will record accumulated rainfall of 30-40mm in 24 hours. The rest of the districts in the state will record a light monsoon drizzle.
As per the model outlook, Odisha will be witnessing heavy rains, especially in the districts adjoining Chhattisgarh like Nuapada, Balangir and Bargarh, even till noon on June 14.
Odisha Monsoon Forecast
While the monsoon is predicted to remain vibrant and strong in the western states of India with heavy and bountiful rains along with the states on the western coast, the monsoon rains will dry out along the eastern coast of the country. As a consequence, Odisha will not be going to witness heavy rains till June 18.
• Balasore and adjoining districts are predicted to receive very heavy rainfall on June 19.
• North Odisha districts and western districts like Sundargarh are also going to record a decent amount of rainfall since June 19.