Has the fledgling 26-party Opposition alliance played into the hands of the BJP-led NDA by naming itself the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA)? Going by the flurry of sarcastic and vitriolic comments unleashed in the public space by cheerleaders of the saffron party against the acronym, it certainly looks like the Opposition block may have unwittingly handed over an issue to the ruling coalition on a platter. Quick to pounce on this gaffe of sorts, they have been painting the alliance members as a motley crowd of elite, urban-centric, and ‘westernised’ parties that have no connection with the ‘soul’ of this ancient land and accusing them of perpetuating the colonial legacy – notwithstanding the presence of such authentic rustic sons-of-the-soil like Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mallikarjun Kharge. They have successfully posited the general elections in 2024 as an India Vs. Bharat battle.
Having announced the name of the alliance, the leaders of INDIA themselves appear to have realized the damage potential of this strange-sounding acronym as evident in the late-night decision to add a tagline “Jeetega Bharat” to limit the damage. On the other hand, the quick back-tracking by Himanta Biswa Sarma proves that even the BJP has to be wary of harping on this point too much and without due deliberation. Having tweeted that “Congress for India, Modi ji for Bharat”, the Assam Chief Minister had to hastily delete the tweet when the Congress pounced on Sarma’s inadvertent indiscretion to claim that the ‘truth’ (that Congress stands for India) had come out!
By now, it is abundantly clear that the Opposition alliance could have done without this needless distraction as it embarks on the arduous task of forging a working arrangement between diverse parties, many of them at loggerheads with each other at the state level. There is little doubt that ‘INDIA’ sounds a little weird for a political alliance. It does seem that it was a hurriedly conceived name that was made public without enough deliberations. Whoever came up with this ‘brainwave’ – or at least the leaders who gave it a go-ahead - should have foreseen the fallout and thought of some other, more appropriate and less controversial, nomenclature. There are reports that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar did raise an objection about the name at the meeting in Bengaluru, but his was obviously a minority view that did not prevail in the end. (Nitish, however, was quick to dismiss speculation that he left the Bengaluru meeting early because his suggestion was not accepted,)
Some people have raised a question about the propriety – and even legality – of naming a political alliance after the country’s name. There are indications that the nomenclature is going to be challenged in the courts. In case the courts rule against the naming, the opposition alliance would certainly lose face, if not the election.
But make no mistake, the coming elections are not going to be won or lost because of the name of the rival alliances, but on issues of bread and butter; the rapidly rising prices of almost all essential commodities, the ever-burgeoning unemployment in the country, farmers’ distress and the like. After reaching a peak of 9.1% in the post-pandemic year of 2021-22, the annual growth rate of the economy has nosedived to 6.5% in 2023-24 and the portents don’t look very encouraging for the months ahead. The numbers are simply not in favour of the NDA at the moment.
There will be other issues that will also have a bearing on the outcome of Elections 2024; the shameless efforts to topple opposition governments, the misuse of central agencies to harass opposition leaders, the crony capitalism that has seen just two business houses prosper at the cost of all others, the growing intolerance and persecution of the minorities, the tensions on the borders with China and so on. Manipur may have stopped burning by the time of the elections. But the scars of the ethnic strife and the anger against the failure of the NDA government to put an end to the ethnic strife could influence voting in the next elections – and not just in the northeastern state.
It is now clear that 2024 is not going to be a ‘wave’ election as the one in 2014 – and to an extent even in 2019 – was. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi still remains the most popular leader in the country by a distance, some of the halo around his personality appears to have diminished, if the results of the Karnataka elections, where he had staked everything, are anything to go by. But the one thing that could go against the INDIA alliance is that it may not be able to forge a consensus on its Prime Ministerial candidate to take on Modi, given the number of aspirants in the coalition and their king-sized egos. By all indications, INDIA would go to the elections without a Prime Ministerial face and keep the leadership question open till after the elections in a bid to keep the flock together. The statement by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge that the Congress was not after the PM’s post seems to be an exercise in preventing the boat from sinking even before it started floating properly. And that may be an advantage for the NDA.
All such calculations, however, could go out of the window and the outcome of the polls decided on a hitherto unseen issue. One only has to remember what happened in the run-up to the 2019 polls and how the terrorist attack in Pulwama tilted the scales decisively in favour of the NDA on that occasion. But it doesn’t have to suit the NDA every time. For all know, there could be something – a major corruption scandal or an adverse court ruling - that could put the NDA in the dock and give a fillip to the combined opposition.
A week, they say, is a long time in politics. And there is a lot that can change in the months leading up to the next elections.
(DISCLAIMER: This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own and have nothing to do with OTV’s charter or views. OTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.)