Bhubaneswar/New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the country will witness a normal South-West monsoon this season between June to September. Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall during the monsoon season 2020 is expected to be around 96 per cent to 104 per cent of its long-period average. The Earth Sciences department, however, said that the arrival of monsoon in Odisha is likely to delay.
Briefing on the onset in Odisha, Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, Secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences said, "The onset of South West Monsoon is likely to delay by 3 to 4 days in case of Odisha. In spite of its normal date of arrival on June 9/10, the monsoon may touch the State by June 13."
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Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
"This year, we will have a normal monsoon. Quantitatively the monsoon rainfall during the monsoon season 2020 is expected to be 100% of its long period average with an error of plus or minus 5 due to model error," said Rajeevan.
"For normal monsoon, which is defined between 96%-104%, the forecast probability is 41%. So there is a high probability that the monsoon is likely to be normal. For monsoon above normal (104%-110%) of the long-period average, the forecast probability is 21% and for excess monsoon, which is more than 110% of LPA, the probability is 9%. Similarly, for below-normal monsoon (90%-96%), the forecast probability is 20%. The good news is for deficient monsoon, our forecast is 9%," the official explained.
As per IMD forecast, Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Some climate model forecasts indicate these conditions are likely to persist during the ensuing monsoon season.
However, a few other global climate models indicate the possibility of development of weak La Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean during the second half of the season.
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As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and the Indian oceans.