Bhubaneswar: The growth of COVID-19 infection in India seems to be flattening, and has been more or less linear this week. While a faction of States ensured that there is a noticeable downward trend of the growth curve, cases scaling up drastically in few other States have to a point botched up the expected flat rate.
Latest findings by Prof Shamika Ravi* suggest that a new wave of COVID cases has emerged in States of Kerala, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as active numbers have seen a sudden spike over the last few days.
Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana on the other hand have not let loose the spread of n-CoV even as a rapid rise was seen between May 6 & 10.
While Odisha's COVID chart indicated an exponential growth at the start of the second week of May, the State fortunately saw a major decline in the growth rate of active cases between May 11 & 15. The GR in Odisha during May 6-10 was close to 21.5%, but it came down to 13% over the next five days.
If we compare GRs of the same time frame (May 6-10 & May 11-15), Tamil Nadu also has witnessed a fall from 11.5% to 6%. WB, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat too posted a drop from 6% to 1%, 5% to 1.5%, 4% to -1%, 4 to -1.5%, and 2.5% to 0.5% respectively. The rising speed in active cases for Karnataka (from 7% to 6.5%) and Maharashtra (from 7% to little below 5%) has not varied much.
The situation has been quite contrary in rest of the States including Kerala, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Global trends indicate that asymptomatic cases pose a bigger risk of spreading a second wave of infection. While the growth curve had almost flattened in these States, it is again heading north with emergence of more positives.
During May 6-10, GR in active cases for Kerala stood at -12%, Bihar (-3%), MP (-2%), Telangana (-1.5%), UP (-0.75%), Rajasthan (-0.5%), Jammu & Kashmir (1.5%). In next 5 days, Kerala’s growth rate jumped to 28.5%, Bihar’s number went up to 11%. Similarly, MP (3.5%), Telangana (0.5%), UP (1%), Rajasthan (5.5%) and J&K (2.5%) saw a spike in their active growth rate. Andhra’s GR did not change a lot during the period.
The overall growth rate in the country, however, came down from 5 per cent to a little over 3 per cent.
As of now, 34109 people have been cured or discharged in India with a recovery rate of 37.5 per cent. Country’s coronavirus count has soared to 90,927 while the death toll stands at 2,872. There are 53,946 active COVID-19 cases in the country, as per Health Ministry.
In Odisha, 196 patients have recovered while active count stands at 628. Four persons have succumbed to the virus.
Shamika Ravi is a Senior Fellow of the Governance Studies Program at the Brookings Institution Washington D.C. She was the former Director of Research at Brookings India. Ravi is a visiting professor of Economics at the Indian School of Business. She was also a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India. She is also affiliated with the Financial Access Initiative of New York University.