For the first time since the BJP swept to power at the Centre three and a half years ago, the Deadly Duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party President Amit Shah looks truly vulnerable. Gone is the nonchalance that marked the public utterances of Modi and Shah before and after the UP elections. Notwithstanding the braggadocio in public, there is a palpable sense of unease that manifests itself in myriad ways. The mysterious absence of the word ‘vikas’ and the ‘Gujarat Model’, which gave the party so much traction in the 2014 general elections, in their discourse; the hurried and far-reaching rejig of GST soon after Rahul Gandhi called it Gabbar Singh Tax; the scarcely concealed bid to rake up – and play up – the ‘Padmavati’ issue in a desperate effort to wean attention away from the failings of the government; clutching at the recent upgrade of the Indian economy by Moody’s for dear life – all point to the nervousness of the Big Two (and the party at large).
The reason for the discomfiture is all too obvious. For the first time in 22 years, the BJP is on the back foot in Gujarat. The anger, bordering on hostility, against the BJP among large sections of people in the state is giving the jitters to the party that has come to take Gujarat for granted. ‘No Entry’ boards have been put up in villages dominated by Patidars (Patels), who constitute over 15% of the state’s population and have stood solidly behind the BJP in previous elections. With the Patels under the banner of Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) now aligned with the Congress (notwithstanding the hiccups over seat sharing); OBC leader Alpesh Thakor already in the Congress camp and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani having announced that he would work to ensure the defeat of the BJP, the ruling party now faces a formidable challenge. The positive vibes that Congress scion Rahul Gandhi, the man the saffron party sought to dismiss as ‘Pappu’ till the other day, has been creating on his recent tours to the state have also contributed significantly to the unease within the BJP.
It is not difficult to see why the Modi-Shah duo has staked everything - time, money and effort - on winning Gujarat. After all, it was the laboratory where Modi patented his surefire winning formula of rabid Hindutva rhetoric and the ‘Gujarat Model’ of ‘Vikas’ before scaling it up to the national level in the 2014 general elections. But as they return to seek a mandate for their party in the state where it all started, they find very few takers for their patented potion. The same trading community which cast its lot with the BJP in the last five elections, is a disenchanted, disillusioned and despondent lot today. One does not have to be a political pundit to know that if the BJP loses Gujarat, the effect would be cataclysmic for the party in the rest of the country – and especially at the Centre. If that happens, Brand Modi would be severely dented and talk of the ouster of the BJP in 2019, now confined to whispers in drawing rooms, would become the subject of street talk. The fact that no one – not even the mainstream English media, which has been unabashedly hostile to Modi and his brand of politics so far – has predicted a defeat for the BJP yet would be poor consolation for the Big Two. Ground reports from Gujarat suggest that the disaffection against the party is widespread enough to threaten its continuation in power while successive opinion polls have shown that the margin between the BJP and the Congress has been steadily narrowing as Election Day approaches. While it is true that ‘ground reports’ by media persons and election surveys have proved horribly misleading in past elections – most notably and recently during the UP elections – the desperation in the Modi-Shah combine is a credible pointer to the fact that all is not well in the BJP house.
Why did things come to such a pass for the party in what has been acknowledged as its impregnable fort? On top of the list of reasons, of course, is the devastation caused by the twin ‘surgical strikes’ of demonetization and GST. Notwithstanding the elaborate and labored defence of the two moves by Modi and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, the fact that their impact on the common man has been debilitating is there for everyone to see. While the effect of the double whammy has been felt throughout the country, it has been particular severe on the predominantly mercantile state of Gujarat. Farming has been badly hit, thousands have lost their jobs, hundreds of small traders have had to close shop and traders are having a nightmare complying with the requirements of GST. Sophisticated talk of a ‘cleaner, better economy’, the benefits of a ‘less cash’ economy and the promise of good days ahead hardly provide any succor to the man on the street who doesn’t know where his next meal is going to come from. The people of Gujarat - like their counterparts in the rest of the country – trusted Modi when he dropped the demonetization bombshell on November 8, 2016 and happily suffered what was described by the government as the ‘initial pangs’/’teething troubles’ for months together in the fond hope of a better future. But one year down the line, they have reached the end of the tether. The damage to the BJP’s electoral prospects that demonetization could not do in UP this summer looks all set to singe the party in Gujarat.
The second major reason for the BJP’s concern is the fact that Modi himself is not in the fray this time. More than any solid performance on the ground, it was his charisma (call it glib talk, if you will) that has won the day for the BJP in the three previous elections. With the man who swayed the people not in the reckoning, it is doubtful if the people would repose the same trust in his party. The eminently forgettable and uninspiring stints of the two Chief Ministers who succeeded him – Anandiben Patel and Vijay Rupani – after he became Prime Minister in May, 2014 does not inspire much confidence. The Modi-Shah would no doubt invoke the ‘Gujarati asmita’, which has stood the party in good stead all these years, but it is doubtful if it would have the same resonance that it once did.
The third cause for the saffron party’s nervousness is the newly emerging caste equation, which is certain to damage its electoral prospects. If the Patels, OBCs and Dalits (besides the Muslims, who, in any case, are unlikely to vote for the BJP) indeed vote against the BJP in large enough numbers, it has the potential to bring the whole edifice carefully and painstakingly built by the BJP crashing down. Even if the BJP scrapes through with a slender majority or forms a minority government with the help of Independents and smaller parties, it would still arrest the BJP’s march and galvanise the Opposition ahead of the next election.
Gujarat thus is the litmus test for the Modi-Shah duo.