With the progress of southwest Monsoon slowing down in the country, the latest model forecasts indicate the likely formation of a fresh low pressure area in the south Bay of Bengal in July first week, though Odisha is going to see sunny skies for the next 48 hours.
As per IMD, Odisha has received 25 per cent more rainfall till June 16. A departure of around 75 per cent deficient rainfall has been observed for today in the State, the data reveals. The State will not be witnessing any heavy downpour for the next 48 hours. With the rainfall trend on the downhill, is the State going to record only normal rainfall in the first month of the Summer monsoon?
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The Forecast
A detailed glance at all the models - IMD-GFS, IITM-IMD MME and US-GFS - suggests that during the slog days of the month of June, Odisha will be witnessing heavy rain for only 48- hours in the remaining 10-day period.
The model prediction shows probable rainfall in the State on June 23- 24 following the running of a trough line from Gujarat and passing through Odisha and Andhra Pradesh to extend upto the northeast Bay of Bengal. This weather development will bring heavy rainfall in the districts of western and northern Odisha, though not much rainfall predicted for the coastal region.
The districts from Kalahandi to Mayurbhanj are going to record moderate to heavy rainfall on June 23-24. However, from June 25 - July 2, the State is unlikely to record any significant amount of rainfall.
District-Wise Actual Rainfall
As of today, two districts - Bhadrak and Gajapati - in Odisha have recorded deficient rainfall. While the deficit in Bhadrak is estimated at over 27 per cent, the amount of deficient rain in Gajapati stood at 31 per cent. While deficient rainfall up to 19 per cent is considered normal rainfall, as per IMD parlance, districts like Ganjam and Keonjhar have recorded 18 and 19 per cent deficient rainfall, respectively. Kandhamal has received 16 per cent less rainfall to date.
A high of 12 districts in the State has received excess rainfall in the first month of the current monsoon. The significance here is with no rainfall predicted during the remaining 10-days in the State, July assumes significance for Odisha.
Will July Be Raining Cats and Dogs?
Almost all model outlooks have a consensus on the formation of fresh low pressure area in the south Bay of Bengal on and around July 2. However, the system will form very close to the south Tamil Nadu coast, and it will be bringing good rainfall to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Odisha is unlikely to get any significant rainfall from the likely fresh low pressure in the Bay of Bengal.
July 4: A trough line extending from Maharashtra and passing through Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha will extend into the northeast Bay of Bengal. This development will bring heavy rainfall in the coastal regions in Odisha. The model outlooks suggest a significant amount of rainfall in Odisha from July 5.