IPL 2025 playoff scenarios: Why RCB vs KKR could decide everything

The IPL 2025 fixture between Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) has emerged as a high-stakes encounter with ripple effects across the playoff race.

The playoff probability matrix (as visualised in a detailed breakdown by @ameind386) illustrates just how decisive this matchup is for teams still in the hunt for a top-four or top-two finish.

Current Standings Snapshot

RCB (99.99%), GT (99.99%), and PBKS (99.92%) are almost guaranteed a top-four spot.

The race for the fourth position is tightly contested between MI (62.01%), DC (53.6%), LSG (12.25%), and KKR (2.05%).

Top-two finishes, valuable for the extra shot at qualifying for the final, are still up for grabs, especially for RCB, GT, and PBKS.

If RCB beats KKR

RCB becomes the first team to officially qualify.

Their top-two probability surges to 69.98%, while their overall playoff chance hits 99.80%.

KKR is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

LSG’s slim top-two hopes are erased.

Marginal improvement for MI, DC, and LSG as a competitor drops out.

This scenario greatly simplifies the playoff race, effectively narrowing the field and increasing the clarity for MI and DC’s qualification equations.

ALSO READ: IPL 2025 playoffs qualification scenario: What each team needs to do post-resumption

If KKR pulls off a win

RCB’s top-two chances drop sharply from 69.98% to 36.95%.

Playoff probability for RCB dips slightly to 98.10%, which is still strong, but the margin tightens.

KKR’s chances rise modestly to 4.10%, but they still require a miracle.

MI, DC, and LSG all benefit slightly from a KKR win.

Interestingly, a KKR win barely dents RCB’s top-four hopes but disrupts the top-two finish dynamics. This makes it more attractive for teams hovering below to root for a KKR upset.

Points & NRR Thresholds

The data identifies 17 points and a positive NRR as the safe benchmark for top-two contention. A team finishing with 16 points and a strong Net Run Rate still holds outside hope.

RCB, GT, and PBKS are all well-placed to breach these thresholds.

Teams like MI and DC not only need to win but also watch NRR closely.

Maximum achievable points now stand at 21 for teams with three matches remaining.

Remaining Fixtures and What to Watch

GT vs DC, PBKS vs MI, DC vs MI are key knockout-style games.

LSG still plays GT, RCB, and SRH and will need to win all.

RCB’s remaining matches could shape the final four and determine seeding.

ALSO READ: IPL 2025: Can RCB finally end 10-Year hoodoo against KKR at Chinnaswamy?

One Match, Many Outcomes

The RCB vs KKR match is a textbook example of how a single result can influence multiple playoff outcomes in the IPL. While RCB has much to gain in terms of seeding and security, KKR is fighting to remain relevant.

Meanwhile, fringe contenders MI, DC, and LSG will be keenly watching the outcome, as their hopes rise or fall with every run.

In what is already one of the most unpredictable IPL seasons, the race to the playoffs has turned into a thrilling battle of numbers, momentum, and timing, making every ball from here on a potential decider