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In the early hours of Tuesday, the skies over Tel Aviv and Beersheba erupted with the deafening sound of missiles. Iran had launched six waves of attacks, culminating in the deaths of four civilians in Beersheba — the first confirmed casualties in Israel since former U.S. President Donald Trump announced his ceasefire plan just a day prior.
Despite the fiery backdrop, Trump took to his platform, Truth Social, with an emphatic declaration:
“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”
His post came only hours after Iran’s SNN news agency confirmed that Tehran had fired its final volley just before the ceasefire’s implementation.
The Path to Ceasefire: Behind-the-Scenes Diplomacy
The deal didn’t materialize out of thin air. According to senior White House officials, Trump secured the agreement through direct communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The condition: Israel would stand down if Iran ceased further attacks.
Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, also played a pivotal role, reportedly securing Tehran’s agreement during high-stakes calls. Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff coordinated both direct and indirect channels with Iranian intermediaries.
Trump framed the development as the conclusion of what he dubbed “THE 12 DAY WAR,” commending both nations for their “Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence.”
Tehran's Ambivalence and a Narrow Window
Still, Tehran’s tone was markedly less triumphant. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi laid down specific terms: if Israel ceased “illegal aggression” by 4 a.m. Tehran time (0030 GMT), Iran would reciprocate with restraint. Yet, Araqchi’s remarks on X hinted at lingering uncertainty:
“The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.”
This cautious wording highlights a fragile truce balanced on a knife's edge.
An Escalation in Retrospect: The Path to Open Conflict
The current flare-up was preceded by a series of military escalations. Over the weekend, the United States joined Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, deploying 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs aimed at dismantling Iran’s underground enrichment infrastructure.
The bombings reportedly forced mass evacuations in Tehran. Iran retaliated by targeting a U.S. air base — a strike that caused no injuries, but drew public commentary from Trump:
“A very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered.”
JD Vance reinforced this sentiment on Fox News, stating that Iran is now “incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it,” though this runs counter to the latest U.S. intelligence assessments, which maintain that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Strategic Signals: Israel’s Ambitions and U.S. Calculus
Israeli airstrikes didn’t stop at nuclear infrastructure. Targets included Evin Prison — infamous for housing political prisoners — suggesting a broader campaign against Iran’s ruling apparatus.
Trump, for his part, has not shied away from hinting at regime change. On Sunday, he posted about toppling Iran’s hardline leadership — a sentiment that could complicate ceasefire efforts.
While official statements from Iran’s UN mission and Israel’s embassy in Washington remain absent, sources suggest Israel is eager to wind down operations, having signaled its intentions to the United States through diplomatic channels.
Markets React: A Fragile Optimism
Global markets offered a tentative sigh of relief. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, indicating investor confidence in regional stability. Meanwhile, oil prices dipped to their lowest levels in over a week, alleviating fears of prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern energy supplies.
Looking Ahead: Can the Ceasefire Hold?
As Tuesday unfolds, the world watches to see whether this ceasefire — hastily patched together in the fog of war — can hold. Trump’s public praise stands in contrast to the veiled threats and ambiguous commitments from both Israel and Iran.
If past patterns persist, this truce may serve as little more than a pause in a long, bitter rivalry. But for now, both sides are silent, the missiles grounded, and the world dares to hope.
