Low pressure persists over Equatorial Indian Ocean; Heavy rain alert for South India, thunderstorm likely in Odisha

A low-pressure area over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal persisted over the same region at 8:30 AM IST on February 19. According to the latest meteorological update, the system is expected to move west-northwestwards towards Sri Lanka and gradually weaken over the next 24 hours.

Fresh System Likely to Form

Even as the existing low pressure system weakens, meteorologists have indicated the formation of a fresh weather system. An upper-air cyclonic circulation has developed over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and the adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, extending up to the middle troposphere as of 8:30 AM IST on February 19.

Under its influence, a new low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region within the next 24 hours. This system is also expected to track west-northwestwards thereafter, potentially influencing weather conditions over the southern parts of the country and adjoining seas.

Additionally, a trough in the lower tropospheric levels currently extends from the cyclonic circulation associated with the existing low-pressure area to the Lakshadweep region. This trough is likely to enhance moisture incursion and convection over peninsular India.

Rainfall Forecast and Weather Warnings

Under the combined influence of these systems, the following weather conditions are expected across various regions:

Heavy Rainfall Warning

Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places on February 19.

South Tamil Nadu and Kerala & Mahe: Heavy rainfall likely at isolated locations on February 21 and 22.

Thunderstorm, Lightning & Gusty Winds

Uttarakhand and Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds (30–40 kmph) on February 19.

Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Mahe: Similar conditions likely on February 21 and 22.

Madhya Pradesh: Thunderstorms and lightning are likely at isolated places on February 19.

Kerala & Mahe: Thunderstorms and lightning are also expected on February 20 and 23.

Rainfall and Snowfall in Northern India

Himachal Pradesh: Isolated rainfall/snowfall likely on February 23.

Uttarakhand: Isolated rainfall/snowfall expected between February 22 and 24.

Eastern India Outlook

Odisha: Isolated light rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning likely on February 23 and 24.

Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand: Similar conditions expected on February 24.