Cyclonic circulation over Equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to bring heavy rainfall and temperature changes

A significant weather system is currently persisting over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and the adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, with an upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. As of 0830 hrs IST on February 20, 2026, this system remains active in the region and is expected to lead to the formation of a low-pressure area within the next 48 hours. The low-pressure system is forecast to move west-northwestward, which will trigger a series of weather disturbances affecting multiple regions of India.

Forecasted Weather Impact

The developing low-pressure system is expected to bring the following weather patterns:

Heavy Rainfall in Southern India:

Heavy rainfall is likely over South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala on February 21st and 22nd, 2026. This could lead to localized flooding and disruption in these regions, making it essential for residents to stay prepared for significant rainfall and possible flooding conditions.

Light to Moderate Rainfall and Thunderstorms Across Various Regions:

February 20th: Andaman & Nicobar Islands are likely to experience isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall, along with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching speeds of 30-40 km/h.

February 21st and 22nd: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Mahe will experience similar conditions, including thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds. South Interior Karnataka is also expected to face scattered rainfall and thunderstorms over these two days.

February 22nd: Uttarakhand will experience thunderstorms and lightning, while Vidarbha will be impacted on February 23rd. In the coming days, Chhattisgarh and Odisha will witness thunderstorms, lightning, and rainfall on February 23rd and 24th.

Temperature Trends:

Along with these weather disturbances, temperature fluctuations are expected:

Maharashtra: No significant changes in minimum temperatures are expected over the next four days, with a gradual fall of 2-4°C anticipated during the subsequent three days.

Gujarat: Minimum temperatures are forecast to remain stable for the next two days, followed by a gradual fall of 2-3°C over the next five days.

Rest of the Country: Minimum temperatures are likely to remain unchanged across the rest of India.

Safety and Preparedness:

Given the expected heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and potential snowfall, residents in the affected regions must stay informed and prepared for potential disruptions. Authorities will likely issue further weather advisories as the low-pressure system develops.

Farmers, travelers, and local authorities in regions like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Uttarakhand, and the Andaman Islands are advised to take precautions

Also Read: Fresh low pressure likely Over Equatorial Indian Ocean; Odisha to see dry spell, rain from Feb 23

The formation of a low-pressure area over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal is expected to bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and temperature fluctuations across India over the coming days. While southern states will experience intense rainfall and gusty winds, northern regions should prepare for snow and cold weather. Staying updated on weather forecasts and taking necessary precautions is essential to ensuring safety during this period of significant meteorological activity.