Taking to Twitter, the weather department said, “The monsoon has completely withdrawn from Odisha.”
The monsoon is also likely to withdraw from the remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha and North Bay of Bengal and some parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and the central Bay of Bengal during the next two days.
As per IMD, monsoon is likely to withdraw from parts of Maharashtra, including Pune by October 23. The low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and may continue the rainfall and may not affect the withdrawal of monsoon from Maharashtra, weather department officials said.
Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal are expected to receive heavy rainfall until October 25. "Scattered to fairly/widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls & thunderstorm/lightning very likely over Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal on 24th & 25th October, 2022," the MeT Department stated.
The monsoon withdrawal today is against its normal date of withdrawal from southwest Rajasthan of September 17.
As per IMD, the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon is based on the following conditions:
(i) Anti-cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa level,
(ii) No rainfall during last 5 days and
(iii) Water vapour imagery indicates dry weather conditions over the region.
The line of withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon passes through Khajuwala, Bikaner, Jodhpur and Naliya.
Meanwhile, the low pressure area now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining north Odisha-West Bengal coasts, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.
The associated cyclonic circulation also extends and the system is likely to move west-northwest wards across north Odisha and north Chhattisgarh during the next two days.
A trough runs from the low pressure area over Northwest Bay of Bengal adjoining north Odisha-West Bengal coasts to southwest Uttar Pradesh across Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.
As per IMD, the southwest monsoon is now active over Odisha and several parts of the state experienced heavy rainfall activities in the past 24 hours. Baliguda in Kandhamal district recorded highest 302 mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours.
Similarly, Dharakote (Ganjam) recorded 121 mm of rainfall, followed by Sheragada (Ganjam) 120 mm, Purusottampur (Ganjam) 102.2 mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours.
Realized #rainfall (mm) during past 24Hrs recorded at 0830 Hrs IST of today, 20th September 2022#monsoonrains #monsoon pic.twitter.com/cEBJqWE8EF
— Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar (@mcbbsr) September 20, 2022
As per a bulletin issued by the IMD's Regional Centre in Bhubaneswar, monsoon has withdrawn from Sundergarh, Jharsuguda, Deogarh, Sambalpur , Bargarh, Bolangir, Sonepur, Nuapada, Boudh, Kalahandi and Nabarangpur districts in the State.
This apart, it has also pulled out from most parts of Angul and Kandhamal districts and some parts of Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Dhenkanal, Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj districts as of today, October,12, 2021, the country's premier weather forecasting agency said.
The IMD has predicted that the monsoon will pull out of the remaining parts of Odisha in the next few days.
Odisha had recorded 1046 mm of seasonal district average cumulative rainfall from June to September which was nine percent less than the long-term average.
Similarly, for the month of October (post-monsoon period), the State has recorded district average cumulative rainfall of 28.9 mm till today (October 12) which is a departure of 50 percent from the normal rainfall.
This year, the southwest monsoon started withdrawing in India on October 6, 2021, a record 19 days later than the normal date of September 17.
As per IMD, the conditions are also becoming favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some more parts of Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, some parts of Maharashtra, Odisha and West Bengal during next 2-3 days.
“The cyclonic circulation over north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood persists. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is very likely to form over the same region during next 48 hours. It is likely to become more marked and move west-north-westwards towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts during subsequent 4-5 days,” said IMD.
Weather Outlook For Next Few Days In Odisha:
Day 1(valid from 1330 hrs IST of 09.10.2021 up to 0830 hrs IST of 10.10.2021)
Yellow Warning (To be updated): Thunderstorm with lightning is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Malkangiri, Koraput, Nawarangpur, Rayagada and Gajapati.
Day-2 (valid from 0830 hrs IST of 10.10.2021 up to 0830 hrs IST of 11.10.2021)
Light to moderate rain or thundershower is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Coastal Odisha, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Nawarangpur, Malkangiri and Koraput.
Day-3 (valid from 0830 hrs IST of 11.10.2021 up to 0830 hrs IST of 12.10.2021)
Light to moderate rain or thundershower is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of South Coastal Odisha, Rayagada, Malkangiri and Koraput
“After the end of monsoon season, due to divergence in lower level of atmosphere, air from upper atmosphere is dragged down and resulted rise in temperature,” Bhubaneswar Regional Meteorological Centre's former director Sarat Sahu said.
Sahu further said that as thunderstorm activities are not so prevalent during this year’s monsoon withdrawal, it is helping in the rise of temperature.
On the other hand, the meteorological department has predicted that there is a likelihood of formation of a low pressure system in Southwest and Central Bay of Bengal by October 8 or 9.
Also Read: Monsoon withdraws from Odisha, but low pressure likely in next 72 hours
It is likely to become more marked and move towards Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coast during the subsequent 72 hours leading to rains in some parts of the state after October 10.
The conditions then further hint at the Monsoon withdrawing from Odisha by the end of October.
Significantly, when the State is all set to witness heavy rainfall on September 2-3 owing to a likely depression system over north Bay of Bengal, weather models by Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) further show development of another low pressure area over north Bay of Bengal on and around September 7.
Even, the US-based Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) has made forecasts that show Odisha will be experiencing precipitation amounting to over 50 mm (5cm) in the week ending on September 13 (as shown in the figure).
As per the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the withdrawal of monsoon in 2019 is expected in the third week of October only. And the reason behind delayed withdrawal is attributed to very high temperature on the periphery of monsoon in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
"It takes longer time when the whole continent cools down to the temperature of monsoon withdrawal," said its lead researcher Elena Surovyatkina.
It needs worth mentioning that last year just before days of Monsoon withdrawal, the active Bay of Bengal had spun a severe cyclonic storm Titli.
Notably, last year the month of September had witnessed more phenomenon of low pressure areas (lopar), and one such lopar had developed to cyclone Daye that crossed the Odisha coast on and around 21 September.
It has been observed that the atmosphere gets more unstable during the last leg of Monsoon and the vertical wind shear gets stronger. These two conditions have the ability to turn a lopar into cyclone.
Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted moderate thunderstorms for today in only three districts of Koraput, Nabarangpur and Kalahandi.
Why such a scenario seems plausible this year is the Monsoon 2019 is taking its own time to coil back from the north-west of India (Rajasthan). Generally, the Indian Summer Monsoon takes nearly 15-30 days to sign out from Odisha, post pulling out its footprint from Rajasthan.
As per the data available with IMD, the shortest span of 15-days it took to sign out from Odisha had been in 2008. Though the withdrawal from Rajasthan started as late as on September 29, the withdrawal date from Odisha was on October 13. And the most delayed withdrawal span of more than 30 days happened in 2010, when the monsoon withdrew from Odisha on October 26-28.
An analysis of Monsoon withdrawal over the years (1958 -2018) reveals that the normal withdrawal date of monsoon from Odisha have been around Oct 15-16, except for the years of 1973, 1975, and 2010, when the withdrawal from Odisha commenced in the last week of October.
Also, in the years like 1982, 1984 and 1994, Monsoon pulled out its footprints from Odisha in September last week.
It needs mentioning here is IMD declares withdrawal of Monsoon taking into account the synoptic features like formation of anticyclone at a height of 850 mb (air pressure) from the sea surface level and considerable reduction in moisture content.
An analysis of 500mb heights Spaghetti maps suggest prevailing of warmer temperature in Rajasthan till November 6. However, likely development of an anticyclonic circulation in lower troposphere seems a possibility by around October 10. Therefore, IMD has recently predicted that withdrawal this year will commence around October 14.
In the given context, as per the usual trend, the withdrawal date from Odisha would then be around October 29.
But the complexity in Odisha's case is development of any upper air cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal during October 14 - 29 could then thwart the withdrawal. In such a scenario, the withdrawal could see extension to November.
As per the recorded trends of monsoon withdrawal from Odisha, the withdrawal from the State normally had started atleast after a fortnight, post the withdrawal from north-western India.
A persisting anticyclonic air-flow has been observed over Odisha. The moisture level in the lower and middle troposphere has seen a drastic reduction over Odisha, especially over western Odisha. The relative humidity over western Odisha has now dropped to below 50 per cent. The coastal region, including Khurda, Puri, etc has also seen a drop in relative humidity to around 70 per cent, which is a normal level.
However, the relative humidity range in south interior Odisha is still estimated at over 80 per cent.
Moreover, a drastic dip in the rainfall activity has been recorded in Odisha since the beginning of October.
As per the IMD data, Odisha has recorded over 16 per cent less rainfall vis-a-vis the normal during the period of October 1-11. The IMD has further made forecasts that Odisha will not witness any significant rainfall activity till October 19.
For which, IMD observed that the conditions are getting favourable for much sooner withdrawal of Monsoon from eastern India, including Odisha.
However, the northeast Monsoon (that makes onset over south east India, especially TN and Puducherry) will trigger above normal rainfall over Odisha prior to Diwali (October 27).
But for weather connoisseurs, the winter is still atleast a fortnight away. While northwestern India will enjoy a fresh dewy morning by Diwali, Odisha has to wait till November.
As per the US-based Climate Prediction Centre, states like Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana will record dew temperature below 12 degree Celsius (C) from mid-October.
Currently, the dew temperature in coastal and southern Odisha is above 21 degree C, whereas the dew temperature in Western Odisha is hovering between 18-20 deg C.
As per National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department, conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some more parts of Rajasthan & Punjab and some parts of Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next 2-3 days.
The country's premier weather forecasting agency states that the monsoon withdrawal has begun almost 11 days later against the normal date of September 17. The normal date of complete withdrawal of the southwest Monsoon from the country is October 15.
According to sources, monsoon rain over the country is 9% in excess since the onset date of June 1. The south peninsula accounts for the maximum 30% excess while central India has 16% surplus. The northwest part of the country has witnessed a 15% deficiency this season while 7% excess over east and northeast India.
Weather Updates From Other Parts Of India
♦ A trough runs from a cyclonic circulation over east Bihar to west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast across Gangetic West Bengal and coastal Odisha at lower tropospheric levels. Under the influence of this system:
♦ Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with moderate thunderstorm & lightning very likely over south peninsular India during next 3 days.
Isolated heavy falls are very likely over Tamil Nnadu during next 2 days; over Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala on 29th September, 2020.
♦ Dry weather very likely over most parts of the northwest India during next 5 days.
♦ Moderate thunderstorm with lightning very likely at isolated places over north peninsular India, Central and northeast India during next 12 hours.
As per weather experts, three main synoptic features are considered for declaration of monsoon withdrawal from a certain part of the country —
1. There should be no rain in the region for at least five days.
2. There should be an anticyclonic wind pattern and a considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries.
Read More:
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