As the cyclonic storm has been categorised as 'very severe', the devastation wrecked recently by very severe cyclonic storm Titli is still fresh in memory of peoples in Gajapati and Ganjam.
However, an analysis of INCOIS wind pattern model shows the Fani to be drifting along the entire coastal belt in the State, post the landfall. While IMD has predicted its wind speed on May 3 at around 130 - 140 and gusting up to 150Km/hour, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has predicted the wind speed at 185Km/hour and gusting up to 190Km/hour on May 3. Now, it seems Fani will not only bring pounding rain but wrecking large-scale devastation for the State.
Moreover, if the INCOIS model's suggestion proved true, then Odisha for the first time in last 40 -years would be witnessing a cyclone making landfall in the month of May. Odisha have witnessed all - from cyclones to super cyclones - in the month of October.
The climatic fact behind is as cylonic systems are low pressure zones, they tend to move to high pressure zones. Post Monsoon and in the month of October, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was higher than the temperature in the landmass. For which, low pressure areas were formed in Bay of Bengal (BoB) and they move towards the high pressure zone in landmasses of Odisha or Andhra Pradesh. In contrast, during summer the temperature over the landmass in Odisha were higher than the SST in BoB.
For instance, the SST in BoB currently is around 30-31 degree Celsius. But the atmospheric temperature prevailing in Odisha is around 40 degree Celsius. As the temperature is high in Odisha, the atmospheric pressure in Odisha is currently lower. For this, weather scientists have predicted the Fani to recurve towards Bangladesh.
But the latest INCOIS model suggest different dynamics and as a consequence, the cyclonic system is likely to make landfall in Odisha on the night of May 3.
There is seemingly little chance of the system dissipating in BoB. Because, the favourable conditions in BoB are working for its intensification to a very severe cyclonic storm. An analysis reveals the sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal (BoB) on May 1, when Fani is to take a recurve, would be around 31 - 33 degree Celsius. The SST along the south Odisha coast on May 1 will be hovering at around 31 degree Celsius.
The direction of winds in the BoB around May 1 is predicted at around 90 degrees from north, which means they are almost vertical. The vertical wind shear is aiding Fani to take a recurve towards north.
As per Indian Metrological Department's latest bulletin, Cyclone Fani lay centered at southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) and east Equatorial Indian Ocean, which is around 1,230Km from Machlipatnam. The IMD release has indicated the system to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm by April 30, and after reaching near north Tamil Nadu coast and south Andhra coast, it will take a re-curve towards north from May1. IMD has predicted very heavy rain in coastal Odisha for May 2 and May 3.
Even, SRC Bhisnupada Sethi had yesterday alerted all collectors of coastal districts to remain on alert and take necessary actions to re-vitalise the cyclone infra in the State.
And the significant fact is the intensity of cyclone will upgrade to 'severe' cyclonic storm by November 7.
While IMD bulletin says the system is now 950 km south-southeast from Paradip, it is 1020 km and 1000 km from Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Kheppura (Bangladesh), respectively, JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) latest summary has also confirmed the depression to progressing into a cyclone in next 24 hours and move north-northwestwards.
The IMD bulletin has also predicted the tropical cyclonic system to move north-northwestwards towards Odisha-West Bengal coasts, IMD DG Mritunjaya Mahapatra says it may skip the Odisha coasts.
Regarding the intensity of the cyclone, IMD MD says it will upgrade into severe cyclone by November 7. JTWC says the cyclone will intensify in next 72 hours (by Nov 7). It further said that the system has persistent deep convection. The sea surface temperature of 30-31 deg C and low-moderate vertical wind shear will aid its intensification, JTWC observed.
In the meantime, SRC Odisha, P K Jena, holding his first presser post IMD's confirmation of depression progressing into a cyclone, maintained that the cyclone may skip Odisha.
"IMD has made a forecast of light to moderate rainfall in Odisha, especially northern Odisha, from November 8," he added.
Meanwhile, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), the ocean information services unit of Govt of India, in its latest wind model forecast maintained that the cyclone will be hitting Odisha coast at around 5:30 hours on November 10.
Significantly, its INCOIS, whose wind model has predicted from Wednesday last about the tropical disturbance progressing into a cyclone by Nov 9-10.
The ECWF's (European Centre for Weather Forecasts) latest forecast maintained that the tropical cyclone will hit Odisha coast on November 9-10. Like INCOIS, the predicted landfall area is Jagatsinghpur.
However, US met agency Global Forecast System's (GFS) latest forecast reiterated its yesterday observation, but with little modification.
The GFS forecast says the system will first move north-northwestwards towards Odisha, then drift away towards Bangladesh and then re-curve to cross southern Andhra Pradesh coast on November 14. Seemingly, a very peculiar forecast.
Because, such steep recurves are very very rare. Cyclonic systems mostly follow linear path. Instances of normal recurves are very few.
While it is still the early days to pin-point the path of cyclone, what looks disappointing is the approach of the SRC Office. During his media interaction, instead of taking the approach that Odisha is 24X7 ready to tackle any eventuality, the SRC's approach looks escapist.
"As IMD is saying cyclone 'may' skip Odisha, the danger doesn't lurks now over Odisha. The SRC then added if the cyclone changes its path, we have 2-days in hand.
As per NDMA guidelines, mobilisation and evacuation is possible within 48 hours of alert. But to mitigate flash floods due to heavy downpour in vulnerable areas, the SOP on checking canals, drains or surface tanks need to be activated at least before 96 hours.
This is what happened with Titli cyclone. IMD then has predicted the cyclone to make landfall at Gopalpur, but Titli winged up towards Palasa and post landfall entered Gajapati district. The administration there was caught unawares. And cyclone wrecked havoc in Gajapati and Ganjam.
The bottom line is still no lessons were learnt.
https://youtu.be/4-hi6UndNY4
Cyclone ‘Amphan’, as we know now, has not just followed the exact path charted out by the IMD as early as Sunday. The ‘desi’ agency was also spot on about the intensity of the storm, the wind speed and the place of landfall. As IMD Director General (DG), Odisha’s very own Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra emphasized, with an unmistakable but justifiable sense of pride, at the presser in New Delhi this afternoon, the ‘Red’ and ‘Black’ lines on the map, denoting the predicted and the actual course of the cyclone respectively, overlapped almost completely!
Around midnight yesterday, the more fancied international weather station Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy spread panic among those tracking the course of the cyclone, not the least of them the Odisha government, as it hurtled along towards the Odisha coast menacingly, by predicting that it would have landfall on the north Odisha coast. Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) Pradeep Jena revealed today that he made an anxious phone call at the unearthly hour of 3 AM to Dr Mohapatra, who assured him that the landfall would be at the place it had predicted. Lo and behold! By this morning, the JTWC had come round to the course that IMD had stuck to since the beginning!!
This is not something that this columnist discovered during Amphan. There was an exactly similar kind of situation in the lead up to Cyclone Phailin on October 12, 2013, causing the same kind of confusion and uncertainty among those tracking its course (among them yours truly) that JTWC red herring did late last night. If I remember correctly, the IMD had said on that occasion that the wind speed at the time of landfall would be between 20-220 kmph. JTWC, in sharp contrast, had predicted that the wind speed would be around 300 kmph at the time of landfall! Other international agencies put it between 240-260 kmph. Some of them differed widely with the IMD about the place of the landfall as well. While IMD had stuck to its guns and maintained throughout that it would be Gopalpur on the south Odisha coast, some other weather agencies said it would be somewhere on the Andhra Pradesh coast. In the end, it was IMD which had the last laugh. Not only did the landfall take place at Gopalpur, the wind speed too was measured at 215 kmph – just as the IMD had predicted!
I remember calling up the then Director of the Bhubaneswar Met Centre, the affable Dr Sarat Sahu, anxiously to ask him about the prediction of JTWC and other agencies. Calm and unflustered as ever, he replied; “I don’t know what model they use. So, I can’t really comment on their predictions. But we have full trust in the model we use. And as per that model, the speed would be around 210 kmph.”
Since then, I have always trusted the IMD more than any other agencies while reporting cyclones that followed in subsequent years: ‘Hudhud’, which came exactly a year after Phailin, Titli, Bulbul, Fani and numerous other cyclones of varying intensity that did not have landfall on the Odisha coast. And the IMD has come out trumps each time.
Notwithstanding its stellar record over the years, however, some people – and organisations – have greater faith in ‘phoren’ agencies, which have repeatedly come a cropper when it comes to predicting Indian cyclones (I don’t really know how accurate they are in predicting cyclones and typhoons in their own countries!). This time too, some media houses lent greater credence to the international agencies than IMD and unwittingly spread panic among the people for some time. I have never quite figured out this fascination. It is possible it’s part of the general tendency among most Indians that advanced countries know best. It could also be another case of ‘familiarity breeds contempt’, something we Indians excel in.
But whatever it is, we should inculcate some respect for our very own IMD after the experience of Amphan!
(DISCLAIMER: This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own and have nothing to do with OTV’s charter or views. OTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same)