The area where the low pressure area will take shape has all the elements to nourish the system. The tropical cyclone heat potential is predicted to remain at over 110 kjcm2. While at the place of the genesis of the system, the sea surface temperature is predicted at over 30 deg C, the sea surface temperature of the Bay of Bengal as a whole is predicted to hover between 28 - 32 deg C.
April Showers?
With such favourable indices, will the system grow up to become a cyclonic storm then? Historically verifying, between 1891 and 2021, the month of April had seen a total of 8 cyclones, including one super cyclone.
However, the significant fact here is that none of the systems has formed in the first week of April. Almost all cyclones in April developed after the first fortnight only. A total of two cyclones (Bijli -2009 and Marutha -2017) formed in the second week of April (14-17) could grow up to only category -1 cyclonic storms.
Data with IMD shows that the landfall of both cyclonic storms took place in Bangladesh (near Chittagong) and Myanmar (near Sandoway). And the place of origin has been around the same (Andaman Seas and southeast BoB) region.
April 2022 Story?
Will April 2022 join the years of 2009 and 2017? The history of April is evident that both the cyclones in the first fortnight after the initial westward/northwest track took a recurve towards Myanmar (and Bangladesh).
However, even as the system has all the elements to gain strength, the predicted high wind shear of around 25-30 knots will be going to prove as the major hurdle before the fresh low pressure system's intensification.
As per IMD, INCOIS, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF model analysis, due to high wind shear of over 20 knots, the system is unlikely to grow into a cyclonic system.
The Myanmar Weather Department has today predicted that the system will grow up to become a depression and will chart a westward track.
A study of the wind models of IMD, INCOIS, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF shows that the surface level wind speed of the system will hover between 30-60 km/hr. As a consequence, the analysis reveals that the upcoming low pressure system is unlikely to steam up to a cyclonic system.
However, the system will bring rainfall in and around Chennai and other coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. The system may also bring a spell of rainfall in Kerala.
Odisha Impact
Analysis of the IITM MME clearly reveals that rain is unlikely in Odisha till the end of April, even as pre-monsoon activities (rainfall of around 5mm/day) witness a kick-start in the neighbouring states like West Bengal and Jharkhand in the second fortnight of the month.
As per the latest INCOIS forecast, Cyclone Jawad will move very close to Pentakotta and Kalingapatnam at around 10-11 am on December 4 (Saturday). From that point, the cyclonic system will track a north-northeast direction.
With the change in direction, it seems the Cyclone will move parallel to Odisha coast up to the Paradip coast, and from there will take a further curve towards the northeast direction.
INCOIS Forecast
A look at the details of the forecast by India's ace ocean research organisation reveals that the cyclone tracking a northwest direction will move very close to Vishakapatnam and Srikakulam (Pentakotta to Baruva) at around 11 AM on Saturday (Dec 4). But the system instead of making landfall will track a north-northeast direction running parallel to the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Cyclone Jawad And Odisha
The NCEP-GFS and INCOIS data suggest that the Cyclone Jawad will run parallel to the Gopalpur coast around the evening hours on Dec 4, when the wind speed along the coast will attain a gale speed of over 70km/hr.
The gale speed wind will sweep along the coast of Odisha up to Paradip. Moreover, the significant wave heights along the coast will touch a high of over 10 feet between the night hours on December 4 and morning hours on Sunday (Dec 5).
The latest data of both models predict that the cyclonic system will then track a further northeast direction to make landfall in Bangladesh.
The JTWC Forecast
As per the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), the tropical disturbance 94W will intensify into a tropical cyclone as the wind speed will cross the 65 kmph threshold in the next 24 hours (by December 3 night hours). The analysis says the system is currently existing in a boundary layer of moderate (20knots) to low (5-10kts) vertical wind shear (VWS). The system will track continuously the northwest direction and enter into a zone of low VWS to intensify into Cyclone Jawad.
However, the analysis says, after intensifying into a tropical cyclone, further development of the system will be lackadaisical, though, it will chart a west-northwest track to reach near the coast of India.
Is High VWS Behind The Drift?
As per the NCEP data, since the vertical wind shear over Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh is predicted to remain between 25-35knots in the morning hour, and is slated to further rise to around 35-45 knots later, the wind shear seems not favourable for the system to track a northwest direction.
Moreover, the direction of upper-level winds (models show charting a northeast direction) seems to be a major reason behind the system taking a drift towards a favourable environment (to its northeast side). The system is slated to make landfall in Bangladesh, predicts NCEP-GFS.
A cyclone will intensify when it gets a wind shear of around or below 30 knots. But the model analysis predicts the wind shear over Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh will be hovering around 35 -45 knots. The direction of the upper-level winds is considered as an important determiner in forecasting the track of a tropical cyclone.
As the VWS is not high over the whole of north Bay of Bengal, the cyclonic system will not weaken. Instead, the system will track the supportive zone (the northeast Bay of Bengal).
Current Status Of 94W
As of now (at around 5:15 pm), the tropical disturbance is nearly 1066 km away from Vishakapatnam and nearly 1120 km from Gopalpur. The system in the last 24hours has charted a northwest direction. (see the main image). It has moved with a speed of around 45km/hr. The system's early clouds have been noticed on the Andhra Pradesh skyline.
Even as the weather tonight is partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and South Bay of Bengal, the satellite maps hint at the formation of the low pressure area over the south Andaman sea tomorrow.
It will be formed around the night hours on Nov 30, because, the trigger factor of the current tropical disturbance is now in the south China Sea and will cross over the Gulf of Thailand to enter into the Andaman seas by the night hours tomorrow. The wind shear in the south Andaman sea is between 15 - 17.5 knots, which is very supportive for the formation of the system.
The Initial Report
As per the consensus model data, the low pressure system over the south Andaman sea will be triggered by a tropical disturbance called 94W currently located in the south China sea and is moving in a west direction towards the Gulf of Thailand. (see the image below)
The ACCESS G3 data shows the low pressure area will develop over the south Andaman sea (near the Nicobar Islands) by around 11:30 pm on Tuesday. The ECMWF and ACCESS predict the system to first move in a west direction to reach the south Bay of Bengal.
The Lopar will develop into a well-marked system by the early morning hours of December 2 (Thursday). And in the next 24 hours, the system will intensify into a depression.
Post the formation of depression, the system is predicted to chart a northwest direction. The system will further intensify into a cyclonic storm by Dec 3. Tracking the northwest direction, the cyclonic storm will veer very close to the coasts of East Godavari district by the early morning hours of December 4 (Saturday).
The Landfall Place
A look at the model parameters and track data of the likely cyclonic system does bring to memory - the cyclone Titli. Though the predicted track by INCOIS, NCEP-GFS, ECMWF and ACCESS G3 indicates that the cyclonic storm will make landfall between Kalingapatnam and Puri, it is very likely that the cyclone will make landfall in Andhra Pradesh coasts very close to Gopalpur. The landfall, as per the current weather parameters, will take place by noon hours on Saturday (Dec 4).
Like the very severe cyclone Titli, this upcoming cyclonic storm's first fury will be felt in the Gajapati district. The system then curve and move over the Odisha landscape to reach West Bengal. The forecasts show the weakened system to lay centred over West Bengal on December 6.
However, the system will not intensify into a severe cyclone. The wind speed of the likely system will hover around 80km/hr. And the central pressure will hover between 990-1000mb, though NCEP GFS predict the central pressure to fall to around 980.
This shows Odisha will be pounded by rain and hounded by gusty winds during Dec 4 and 5. However, high wind shear over Odisha will rapidly weaken the system, the forecasts added.
Rain and Wind In Odisha
As per the predictions, 100-175mm rain will pour down in the districts of Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur. And in other coastal districts like Khordha, Cuttack, Nayagarh, Jajpur, Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar etc will record rainfall in the range of 90-100 mm per 24 hours. The rest of Odisha districts will record rainfall in the range of 20-45 mm per 24 hours between Dec 4 and 5.
While the districts of northern Andhra Pradesh, close to Odisha, Ganjam, parts of Gajapati are predicted to record a wind speed of around 70km/hr. In the rest of the coastal districts, the wind speed will be in the range of 50-60km/hr.
Capital Impact
The State Capital Bhubaneswar may record nearly 200 mm rain on December 4. And The wind speed forecast is in the range of 30-60km/hr.
And this cyclonic affinity of the Bay of Bengal poses a big threat to the eastern coastal states of the country, including Odisha.
Showing a rare consensus, almost all the lead Met Models - NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS-G3, INCOIS, IMD - have predicted cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal between Nov 30-Dec 3. And the consensus prediction is a low pressure area will form on Nov 30 close to Nicobar islands and will develop into a well-marked low in the next 18-hours.
Will Severe Cyclone Take Birth?
A look at the parameters of model predictions provide a hint about the type of cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal and also its intensity.
As per the model data of NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, ACCESS-G3 and INCOIS, as the system will move to the south Bay of Bengal from the Andaman seas, an intensification will happen. And the intensified system is predicted to move in the northwest direction towards the central Andhra Pradesh coast.
However, a look at the model parameters reveals that the system is unlikely to undergo rapid intensification. The central pressure is predicted to hover between 990 - 1000 Mb. And the wind speed associated with the system is predicted to hover at around 83 km/hr. The predicted system will intensify into a cyclonic storm, but not of a severe category.
Place of Landfall
As per the INCOIS prediction, the predicted cyclonic storm will take a hit between Krishna and East Godavari districts during the midnight hours on December 4.
In consensus with INCOIS, ECMWF forecast also predicts the cyclonic storm making landfall between the Krishna and East Godavari districts in the mid-night hours on Dec 4.
However, the ACCESS G3 and NCEP-GFS, while predicting that though the cyclonic storm will move close to the Andhra Pradesh coast (around Kakinada) will take a curve in a northeast direction and move along the Odisha coast to make landfall in south 24 Parganas district in West Bengal on Dec 4-5.
As per their forecast, the northwest wind will deflect the cyclonic storm towards the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts.
Odisha Impact
Under the impact of the system, Odisha will witness rainfall from the morning hours of Dec 3 onwards. By the morning hours of Dec 4, moderate to very heavy rains were predicted in Bhubaneswar and Cuttack.
On December 4, nearly half of the State is predicted to record moderate to heavy rainfall. The rainfall is predicted across the coastal districts Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar. Puri may witness heavy rainfall.
On Dec 5, the whole of the State is predicted to record moderate to very heavy rainfall under the impact of the system.
While NCEP predicts rainfall in the range of 50-100mm per 24 hour, IMD predicts rainfall in the range of 40-70 mm per 24 hour.
A forecast of heavy rainfall is predicted for the districts of Sambalpur, Deogarh, Angul, Dhenkanal on Dec 6.
Moreover, the coastal districts are predicted to witness a surface wind speed of 40-50 Kmph on Dec 4-6.
Capital Impact
As per NCEP-GFS, State Capital Bhubaneswar may record a whopping around 70 mm per 24 hours on Dec 4. The gusting wind speed in Bhubaneswar will be in the range of 33 - 57 kmph between Dec 4 and 5. The State Capital skyline will turn overcast from Dec 3.
Blow To Farmers
Even as the system is not predicted to make landfall in Odisha, the amount of rainfall and wind speed predicted are enough to damage the paddy crop ready for harvesting in the coastal districts.
The State government has to work out a contingency plan to save the farmers' hard-earned produce. Severe crop loss poses the risk of farm distress and suicides.
Another top ocean forecasting agency of the Government of India, INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services) in its latest state of the forecast for Bay of Bengal predict the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the central bay on around Oct 14.
Both IMD and INCOIS models don't see any low pressure area around Andaman seas in next 48 hours. (see both the images below)
Current State Of Weather
As per the conditions prevailing at morning hours (5:30 am) today, a low pressure trough line from Arabian sea is extending up to south 24 Parganas in West Bengal, after passing through south Maharashtra, parts of MP-Chhattisgarh and Odisha. (see the image)
The passing up of the trough line over Odisha shows monsoon still over Odisha and Chhattisgarh.
The wind pattern in the north Bay of Bengal (near Odisha and West Bengal) today has been around 75 deg from north, and at times between 20-30 degree from north. This data shows the wind is blowing mainly from east and north east.
Durga Puja: Heavy Rain In AP
As per the forecast of INCOIS, the wind will blow in the east direction in the northern bay in the coming 48 hours. Both the models predict the formation of a low pressure area over the central bay around Oct 14.
And the system will gradually move and cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Vadarevu and Machilipatnam on October 16.
As a consequence of the weather system, the districts around Machilipatnam are predicted to record a whopping 70 mm rainfall. Moreover, the surface winds are predicted to be in the range of 30-60km/hr. (means the land where the system crosses over will record wind up to 60 km/hr)
Odisha Impact
Though the State will be remaining almost dry during the Durga Puja days (up to Oct 14), the IMD short range forecast shows south coastal Odisha will be recording around 40 mm accumulated rainfall in 24 hours on Oct 16, due to the LPS crossing Andhra Pradesh.
It says, Puri, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Bhadrak, Kendrapada, and Jagatsinghpur may record an accumulated rainfall in the range of 20 mm. But no significant rainfall forecast for other districts in the State.
The Big Forecast
As per the IMD-GFS model, low pressure in the northern Andaman sea is likely to form on Oct 17. And the intensified system will eye on Odisha on Oct 18. The surface wind speed is predicted to be at around 60-80km/hr. The wind speed forecast of IMD shows the system will be a depression.
And the forecast is, the system will cross the land around Jagatsinghpur on Oct 18. But it will bring very heavy rainfall, the forecast says.
The model predicts rainfall in coastal Odisha (Puri to Balasore) in the range of 40mm in 24 hours. However, the accumulated rainfall in and around Jagatsinghpur will be 70mm per 24 hours. Centra Odisha districts will record at least 20mm rainfall before the system's cross over to land.
The Global Models
NCEP-GFS: Based on sea conditions at 11:30 hrs today, the US model predicts a very intensified cyclone (extremely severe cyclone) to hit Odisha on Oct 17-18 between Puri and Jagatsingpur.
ECMWF: Another top weather forecasting agency, ECMWF has predicted a depression hitting Odisha coast on and round Oct 18. The place of landfall has been predicted between Puri and Jagatsinghpur.
The Bottomline
The model summary shows Odisha will be bracing up for very heavy rainfall and windy conditions on Oct 18. While GFS predicts it to be of an extremely severe cyclone, IMD and ECMWF put it in the depression category, as of today.
While the IMD has indicated formation of a well marked Low Pressure Area (LPA) over east Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, it has only maintained that the LPA will turn into a depression by today evening. The depression then to evolve into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow evening. And the cyclonic storm moving northwest ward drift towards the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast by April 30.
However, a study of a model developed by Indian National Centre of Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) reveals a clear cyclone threat for Odisha in the first week of May. The local Met senior official Ramesh Kumar Nayak here, though, informed that as of now our assessment is cyclone Fani will have no impact on Odisha.
Though INCOIS model too has predicted conversion of LPA into a tropical depression by April 27 and evolving into a cyclonic storm with the formation of an eye by the night of April 29, it clearly shows the cyclonic storm instead of making landfall in Tamil Nadu or south AP coast, will keep drifting away from the Tamil Nadu and South Andhra coast to reach near the Odisha coast by morning of May 3. The cyclonic system looks to be very intense, if one goes by the INCOIS model.
However, the wind pattern suggested by the model didn't predict landfall in Odisha as of now. But what looks certain at least now is coastal Odisha would likely to witness heavy rainfall along the coastal areas from May 2 onwards. The sea would also remain rough and wind speed could roaring over 80 km/hr during the date.
Why Odisha may stave off from the cyclone Fani? Historically, Odisha have witnessed cyclones in September and October only. The cyclone data available with IMD shows Odisha saw cyclone hitting in May only once, that too around 4 -decades back. Recent data reveal cyclones generated during May -June in Bay of Bengal (BoB) had drifted along Odisha coast, only to make landfall in Bangladesh. But cyclonic conditions along Odisha coast are favourable. An analysis reveals the sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal (BoB) along the south Odisha coast is now hovering at over 30 – 31 degree Celsius. This reveals the landmass of Odisha coast adjoining to the sea is having a very high atmospheric pressure. And cyclones are systems that move from low to high pressure fronts
The fact needs to be mentioned here is sea surface temperature of BoB gets heated up during pre-monsoon (April-May) and post Monsoon (September - October). And if the vertical wind shear, means variation of wind's speed and direction, sustains a LPA , then cyclones are a reality in these months in the BoB.
The direction of winds along Odisha coast is around 85 –90 degrees from north, which means they are nearly vertical. And vertical winds play an important role in sustaining a cyclonic storm and influence its movement too.
However, the Indian Metrological Department in its latest afternoon bulletin maintained that the Cyclonic storm Fani lay centered at southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) and east Equatorial Indian Ocean, around 1,440Km from Macchlipatnam. The IMD release has indicated the system to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by April 29 and reach near the north Tamil Nadu coast and south Andhra coast. And Odisha till April 30 will not see any adverse cyclonic impact.
Private weatherman SkyMet has maintained the INCOIS prediction. Skymet too said Cyclone Fani will skirt the entire east coast of India, right from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal, post intensification to severe cyclonic storm by Sunday night. The organisation indicated that post becoming severe cyclonic storm, Fani will become the second such severe storm in BoB since 1891, after cyclone Mala. Cyclone Mala was formed on April 25, 2006 and had made landfall in Myanmar.
According to INCOIS latest bulletin, till April 30 the impact of Cyclone Fani will be restricted to Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh, when it will be near the TN - AP coast. However, neither IMD nor INCOIS model predict Fani to make landfall in TN or AP.
Rather, the INCOIS model suggest it taking a recurve after travelling northwestwards till April 30. The wind pattern suggested by the model didn’t predict landfall in Odisha or West Bengal, as of now.
But what looks certain now is Odisha would likely to witness heavy rainfall along the coastal areas from May 2 onwards. The sea would also remain rough and wind speed could roaring around 100 km/hr during the dates.
Favourable conditions in BoB seems laying the red carpet for Fani to move towards Bangladesh. An analysis reveals the sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal (BoB) along the south Odisha coast is now hovering at over 30 – 31 degree Celsius.
The fact needs to be mentioned here is sea surface temperature of BoB gets heated up during pre-monsoon (April-May) and post Monsoon (September – October). The direction of winds in the BoB is around 85 –90 degrees from north, which means they are nearly vertical. And vertical winds play an important role in sustaining a cyclonic storm and influence its movement too. And, the low vertical wind shear seems guiding Fani towards Bangladesh.
As the cyclonic storm has been categorised as 'very severe', the devastation wrecked recently by very severe cyclonic storm Titli is still fresh in memory of peoples in Gajapati and Ganjam.
However, an analysis of INCOIS wind pattern model shows the Fani to be drifting along the entire coastal belt in the State, post the landfall. While IMD has predicted its wind speed on May 3 at around 130 - 140 and gusting up to 150Km/hour, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has predicted the wind speed at 185Km/hour and gusting up to 190Km/hour on May 3. Now, it seems Fani will not only bring pounding rain but wrecking large-scale devastation for the State.
Moreover, if the INCOIS model's suggestion proved true, then Odisha for the first time in last 40 -years would be witnessing a cyclone making landfall in the month of May. Odisha have witnessed all - from cyclones to super cyclones - in the month of October.
The climatic fact behind is as cylonic systems are low pressure zones, they tend to move to high pressure zones. Post Monsoon and in the month of October, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was higher than the temperature in the landmass. For which, low pressure areas were formed in Bay of Bengal (BoB) and they move towards the high pressure zone in landmasses of Odisha or Andhra Pradesh. In contrast, during summer the temperature over the landmass in Odisha were higher than the SST in BoB.
For instance, the SST in BoB currently is around 30-31 degree Celsius. But the atmospheric temperature prevailing in Odisha is around 40 degree Celsius. As the temperature is high in Odisha, the atmospheric pressure in Odisha is currently lower. For this, weather scientists have predicted the Fani to recurve towards Bangladesh.
But the latest INCOIS model suggest different dynamics and as a consequence, the cyclonic system is likely to make landfall in Odisha on the night of May 3.
There is seemingly little chance of the system dissipating in BoB. Because, the favourable conditions in BoB are working for its intensification to a very severe cyclonic storm. An analysis reveals the sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal (BoB) on May 1, when Fani is to take a recurve, would be around 31 - 33 degree Celsius. The SST along the south Odisha coast on May 1 will be hovering at around 31 degree Celsius.
The direction of winds in the BoB around May 1 is predicted at around 90 degrees from north, which means they are almost vertical. The vertical wind shear is aiding Fani to take a recurve towards north.
As per Indian Metrological Department's latest bulletin, Cyclone Fani lay centered at southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) and east Equatorial Indian Ocean, which is around 1,230Km from Machlipatnam. The IMD release has indicated the system to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm by April 30, and after reaching near north Tamil Nadu coast and south Andhra coast, it will take a re-curve towards north from May1. IMD has predicted very heavy rain in coastal Odisha for May 2 and May 3.
Even, SRC Bhisnupada Sethi had yesterday alerted all collectors of coastal districts to remain on alert and take necessary actions to re-vitalise the cyclone infra in the State.
The high temperature in landmass of Andhra Pradesh resulted in low atmospheric pressure. Cyclonic systems are low pressure areas, and they move to high pressure zones. For this, Cyclone Fani, instead of moving north west, is taking a re-curve towards north and north east.
The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) has also confirmed that Cyclone Fani will make landfall in northern India (means northern Odisha and West Bengal). Its latest tropical cyclone analysis reads as post the formation of the cyclonic system, Fani will make landfall at TAU 120 hours in northern India, which means around May 3 or 4.
It needs mentioning that the cyclonic storm Fani will take a re-curve at around evening of coming Wednesday (May 1). The system will acquire the tag of extremely severe cyclonic storm on the night of May 1. It is observed that the system will then drift towards Odisha coast, and during day hours of Friday (May 3) will make landfall in between Puri and Paradip.
Though the cone of Cyclone Fani's effect will see very heavy rainfall in south Odisha coastal districts, the brunt of the extremely severe cyclonic storm would be borne by northern coastal districts like Puri, Jagatsingpur and Kendrapara. The observed track of the cyclonic system Fani shows that it will be drifting all along the Odisha coast, post landfall to enter West Bengal. As the system will drift along the coastal region of the State, Odisha coastal districts are going to receive very heavy rainfall and gale wind till Saturday (May 4) evening.
The INCOIS model had yesterday revealed of the Cyclone would probably making landfall between Kalingapatnam and Puri on the evening of May 3, which now stands revised.
As per JTWC, the wind speed of Fani on May 3, the day of landfall, will be a high of around 176 KM/hour with the gusting speed reaching to 216 KM/hr. If the JTWC predictions prove true, the intensity of Fani then will be more severe than Titli - whose wind speed was 150 KM/hr during landfall. Now, it seems Fani will not only bring pounding rain but wrecking large-scale devastation for the State.
Even, IMD has updated the predicted wind speed on May 3 at around 160 -180KM/hr and gusting up to 190Km/hour, informed Mrutyuanjay Mahpatra, ADG, IMD. He, however, added that IMD will declare the time and place of landfall at a later date.
Earlier, a JTWC analysis has hinted at 'Fani' getting dissipated in the Bay of Bengal. But its latest tropical cyclone analysis said there is little chance of the system getting dissipated in BoB. Because, the favourable conditions in BoB are working for its intensification to a very severe cyclonic storm. An analysis reveals the sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal (BoB) on May 1, when Fani is to take a recurve, would be around 31 - 33 degree Celsius. The SST along the south Odisha coast on May 1 will be hovering at around 31 degree Celsius.
Moreover, the direction of winds in the BoB around May 1 is predicted at around 90 degrees from north, which means they are almost vertical. The vertical wind shear is aiding intensification of Fani. Only horizontal wind flow pattern could take steam out of the fledgling cyclonic storm Fani.
In view of the looming cyclone threat on Odisha, the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) under the chairmanship of Chief Secretary Aditya Prasad Padhi held a review meeting at State Secretariat today. The meeting was attended by SRC Bhishupada Sethi, DGP Rajendra Kumar, NDMA, OSDMA, Navy, Air Force and Fire department officials.
Briefing media persons, Padhi said 20 ODRAF (Odisha Disaster Redcution Action Force) teams are functional in the State now. Last year only 10 ODRAF teams were functional. Besides, 12 units of NDRAF are positioned in the State. Other additional measures to deal with the exigency owing to cyclone Fani were discussed, he added.
"Though fishermen were not venturing into the sea with fishing ban in force till June 14, yet the Government will enforce more measures to see that no traditional fishermen would venture into the sea," he informed.
However, CS maintained that as per the information government has, the cyclone may skirt the Odisha coast. IMD hasn't predicted its landfall now, said SRC Sethi. He added that on May 2, the wind speed on and along Odisha coast will be 40 -50Km/hr. District Collectors in south Odisha and coastal districts were alerted to keep the 800 cyclone shelters ready for use in any exigency. Around 335 fire station units were put on alert mode. Also, the State administration will activate communication modes like SMS or VMR sets to alert people in likely affected districts.
Prior to SDMA meet, Union Cabinet Secretary has held a review meeting with all Chief Secretaries of concerned States that are to be affected by cyclone Fani.
Later in the day, the state government cancelled the leaves of its employees in four coastal districts.The leaves of government employees in Ganjam, Puri, Khurda and Kendrapara have been cancelled as a precautionary measure ahead of the the cyclonic storm. CM Naveen Patnaik took stock of preparedness by the state administration to deal with cyclone Fani at the state secretariat.
As per the latest Special Bulletin from IMD, Cyclonic storm FANI has intensified into severe cyclonic storm over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal & laid centred 770 km east of east-southeast of Chennai. It is likely to intensify into very severe cyclonic storm in next 24 hours and very likely to move northwestwards till May 1 & thereafter recurve north-northeastwards towards Odisha coast, the Special Bulletin predicted.
But post making landfall, as the system will drift along the north-east direction, 'Fani' will move along the coastal region of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara and Balasore before entering West Bengal.
The latest model of Indian National Centre of Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) clearly hints at 'Fani' making landfall in south of Puri at around 5:30 hrs of Friday (May 3).
However, the latest Tropical Cyclone (TC) analysis by Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) forecasts 'Fani' to skirt the east coast of India and make land fall at south west of Kolkata at TAU 84, which means at 12- 1PM noon on Friday (May 3). Earlier today, JTWC has made a forecast that 'Fani' world make landfall in the northeast coast of India, which means from Paradip to Sagar Island (West Bengal) in the night of May 3.
Why 'Fani' steers its path towards West Bengal than Odisha? As per JTWC's TC analysis the conditions are very much favourable for taking a re-curve towards northeast ward, instead of moving north. Had it been moved north wards, JTWC observed Odisha would be on its hit track. Since a new STR is developing over northern Thailand, Fani will re-curve northeast ward. For which, it will veer towards West Bengal.
What is Sub Tropical Ridge(STR)? It's an airflow pattern that have high atmospheric pressure and aids cloud formation. Since tropical cyclones are low pressure systems, it track towards high pressure zones. And the STRs during summer move towards poles and turn eastward. And 'Fani' is simply following the STR curvature.
As per the JTWC TC analysis, 'Fani' has upgraded the TC with an intensity from T 4.5 -5 to T4.7 - 5. For which, the wind speed accompanying the cyclonic system will now touch 153 - 167 KM/hr from 147 - 167 Km/hr in its earlier forecast. But the gusting speed may touch around 180Km/hr.
However, IMD has predicted the wind speed at around 180Km/hr with gusting wind speed of around 205Km/hr. It further added that Fani will make landfall to the south of Puri in afternoon hours of May 3.
The JTWC analysis shows 'Fani' moving at speed of around 21Km/hr in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The slower speed hints at 'Fani' gaining more steam.
However, If INCOIS-IMD joint prediction prove true then Odisha's twelve districts are in the cone of EVCS Fani effect, the districts of Puri, Khurda, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara and Balasore seem all set to bear the rain and gale fury of 'Fani'. As the system has very tightly wrapped spiral rain bands, it is expected to bring very heavy rainfall and high gale speeding up to around 180 Km/hr in the landfall place and its subsequent tracking zone. IMD warned that isolated places in Odisha's coastal districts would witness rainfall in excess of over 20 cm or 200mm. North odisha districts to witness very heavy rainfall on Saturday (May 4).
IMD has also cautioned Odisha government to take necessary precaution to prevent Fani induced damages in districts of Ganjam, Gajapati, Khurda, Puri and Jagasinghpur.
But If JTWC's model prove correct than Odisha would see only good rainfall and moderate wind speed of around 40 -50 Km/hr on May 3 and 4.
But storm surge warnings will be there, in any case, for the districts of Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Khurda and Ganjam.
But both INCOIS and JTWC analyses show 'Fani' showing a deepened convective structure that is becoming more symmetrical, which implies that the cyclonic system has developed into an intense cyclonic system. It is well known that during intensification of a cyclonic system, the inner core convective structure was more asymmetric (unorganised).
Moreover, the contraction of the eye of 'Fani' that is wrapped around with compact rain bands indicate the severe intensification process of 'Fani'. It need reminding that during rapid intensification, the microwave 'eye' of cyclonic storm contracts.
The BoB is still supporting 'Fani' as the TC analysis shows sea surface temperature (SST) at around 31-33 degree Celsius, low vertical wind shear at around 22.5Km/hr and strong coriolis effect - means outward flow of air towards equator and poles.
While the latest Indian National Centre of Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) model predict the land fall to the south of Puri after passing at a kissing distance from Gopalpur and Chilika (see the pictures), the office of SRC has pinpointed the place of landfall as Balukhanda, which is to the north of Puri .
Fani also keeps guessing on the time of arrival to the Puri landmass. Though IMD has predicted it by afternoon of Friday (May 3), the drop in the pace of 'Fani' to around 6 Km/hr at 9 AM today from 22 Km/hr yesterday, indicates the time of landfall to the south of Puri will be in the evening hours (5:30 -7 PM) of Friday (May 3). The caveat, however, is the time of landfall will get delayed if pace of 'Fani' slows down further.
As per the latest INCOIS model, the extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani on Friday morning (5:30AM) will skirt Gopalpur at a kissing distance (see the picture below).
And will give a miss to Chilika at around 11:30 AM to move on to make landfall at around the evening hours of 5:30 PM on Friday (May 3) (see the picture below).
Moreover, the snail's pace movement aids intensification of 'Fani'. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has upgraded intensity of 'Fani' to T 5.0 - 6.0 today from T4.7 - 5.0 last night. The wind speed during land fall has been upgraded to 160 - 210 Km/hr by JTWC.
Significantly, last evening JTWC had predicted 'Fani' to skirt east coast of India (Odisha) and make landfall near Sagar Islands (West Bengal).
But since last night JTWC has revised its landfall place. It has now predicted the landfall at Puri in Odisha. The JTWC analysis explains why 'Fani' didn't move towards West Bengal.
As per JTWC, the subtropical ridge over Bangladesh which was actually guiding the track of 'Fani' has started eroding owing to an approaching shortwave 'Trough'.
Troughs are an air flow pattern that moves from west to east and has a bulge towards southern end. The troughs are a cool air aloft. In contrast, the sub tropical ridges have a bulge towards northern end having high atmospheric pressure. The high pressure is due to the air flowing from equator towards poles get build up at a certain location, When the air starts sinking, it develops high pressure and is termed as sub tropical ridge.
Following the erosion of this high atmospheric pressure ridge, 'Fani' didn't track the West Bengal and Bangladesh way, explained JTWC.
As the fury of 'Fani' will be on Odisha, the maximum brunt will be borne by districts like Puri (place of landfall). Puri district will witness rainfall in excess of over 204 mm.
However, the maximum sea wave height is predicted for Gopalpur. As per INCOIS - IMD joint bulletin, sea along Ganjam will see a significant wave height of 3.0 - 8.7 meter over 10 Km area. And the swell height is predicted the highest of 2.5 - 6.5 metre in Ganjam. This analysis by INCOIS shows there is high possibility of sea water ingress in low lying areas in Ganjam.
Puri district will witness large-scale sea water inundation on Friday as the district is forecast to see second highest wave height surge and swell height on land fall day.
The INCOIS forecast also reveals that squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely to commence along & off Odisha Coasts from Thursday (2nd May) and very likely to become gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 85 kmph from Friday (3rd May) morning and become 175-185 kmph gusting to 205 kmph over Odisha Coast during landfall.
While the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) in its latest model predict landfall of 'Fani' in between Chilika and Puri (see the picture above) at early morning (5:30PM) tomorrow (Friday), the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has also pointed out the same range of places as point of landfall (see the picture below) and hinted the landfall time as before 8 AM on Friday.
Though the wind speed may gust to 243km/hour during landfall, the significant fact is what would be the wind speed in big cities like Bhubaneswar, Cuttack and Berhampur in the next 12 hours prior to the landfall?
As per JTWC model prediction, the maximum wind speed in cities like Bhubaneswar, Berhampur and Cuttack could be around 100 - 115 Km/hr in the next 12 hours (means staring from around midnight today). The model further hinted at a wind speed of around 50km/hr in far off places like Nayagarh, Aska, Gunpur, Gajapati and parts of Dhenkanal from midnight to landfall time.
Post landfall and when 'Fani' will be moving over the coastal districts of Jagatsinghpur and Balasore, before entering West Bengal, the wind speed in parts of Cuttack and Jajpur districts will see equally squally winds reaching up to 100 km/hour.
The impact of Fani in Odisha will remain for nearly 12 hours after landfall, when it will be moving north coastal districts enroute to West Bengal.
As per the INCOIS forecast system, the sea along Odisha coast from Gopalpur to Chandbali will remain very rough as high tidal waves ranging from 16 - 34 feet are forecasted till midnight of Friday (May 3). The INOIS data reveals that storm surge during landfall will be observed along the coast of Gopalpur to Chandabali.
High level of sea water ingress into human habitations is feared along the coast of Gopalpur to Chandbali as tidal storm surge is predicted at 1.5 metre over the astronomical tide, which means the storm surge prior, during and after the land fall along the Odisha coast will be around 6.5 feet.
Fearing high sea ingress, the State Government has set a target to evacuate over 7.5 lakh people from the coastal districts to safer places. Till morning of May 2, nearly 25,000 have been evacuated, informed SRC officials. However, as of now, maximum population evacuated is from Gajapati.
Significantly, when the brunt of 'Fani' will be borne by districts like Ganjam, Khurda , Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara, as per the SRC list, this high density populated districts have seen little evacuation, when 'Fani' impact will be discernible from tonight in coastal districts of Odisha.
Significantly, October - November period has been the cyclone season in BoB. But post brewing up Fani in May this year, the BoB has been relatively quieter this year till date, when the usually cooler Arabian Sea has brewed up two cyclones - Kyarr and Maha - in succession.
However, the models of INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services), under Ministry of Earth Sciences, indicate the LOPAR system developing by November 4 over Andaman Sea will be later graduating into a deep depression by November 6.
Though the IMD in its last weather inference, didn't mention about any cyclone genesis, it made a forecast about formation of a LOPAR over north Andaman sea and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal by November 4.
As the weather inferences show prevalence of the factors responsible for cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal, there is high probability of the LOPAR later developing into a depression and then intensifying further into a cyclonic storm by November 8.
The Bay of Bengal’s surface temperature at the LOPAR region is now hovering at over 31 – 32 degree Celsius, which is abnormally higher than the normal sea surface temperature during October.
Moreover, the model shows the sustaining wind velocity would be around 35km/hr by November 6. Along with blowing of easterly winds, as suggested by the models, and the wind direction predicted at around 82 – 90 degrees from north, the conditions seem favourable for developing of the LOPAR into a depression by November 6.
The persistence of the conditions beyond November 6 is likely to aid the system to graduate into a probable cyclonic system.
But the big question then is will the system move towards Odisha coast?
An analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) around Odisha coast predict the SST to hover at around 26 degrees Celsius. This reveals the coast adjoining to landmass of Odisha has relatively lower atmospheric pressure. Since cyclones are systems that move from low to high pressure fronts, the system may not veer towards Odisha coast.
However, as vertical wind shear plays a crucial role in cyclonic system's likely path, the forecast made about the wind direction near Odisha coast will be around 87-88 degrees C, which means they are vertical.
This is a bad news, because vertical winds play an important role in sustaining a cyclonic storm and influencing its movement too.
However, as most cyclones follow a linear path, the models suggest that the probable path of the ‘possible cyclonic storm’ will be between Srikakulum and Visakhapatnam coast.
As per the relevant weather data available with the US-based National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP), the developing system over north Andaman sea is unlikely to progress into a tropical cyclone.
It needs mentioning here that a Low Pressure Area (LOPAR) will develop over north Andaman sea on November 3 and will move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by November 6.
It will further move towards the Andhra coast and likely to cross near Macchlipatnam by November 11-12.
Since the central pressure of a cyclonic system drops below 960 millibar (mb), and as the developing system's central pressure is predicted to fall to around 990mb, the system is unlikely to progress into a cyclone. The central pressures of depressions usually stay at around 990 mb.
However, as the depression will be bringing with it intense clouds, along with Andhra Pradesh, the whole of Odisha will have an overcast sky from coming Saturday (November 9). The forecast is Odisha will experience intense rainfall till next Monday. The south interior and coastal Odisha will bear the maximum brunt.
The forecast of heavy rains is not a good news for the farmers in the State. But the State government could mitigate large scale loss, provided it activates its disaster mitigating machinery and alert the farmers about the impending rains since November 9.
In this context, the task is cut out for the SRC (Special Relief Commissioner) Odisha. Since a week's time is left, the State Government should launch a hectic awareness drive at the panchayat level asking farmers to harvest mature standing paddy crops early and shift immediately to safer places or cover it by polythene sheets.
The government has to provide extra polythene sheets to farmers to store their complete produce, because unseasonal rains are occasional and farmers don't stock polythene sheets in large numbers.
However, standing paddy crops that are not mature to be harvested early, will become prone to lodging (displacement of roots) due to high waterlogging following heavy rains. And such condition will affect the grain quality of farmers in a big way. And they will face largescale problems during procurement.
Not only paddy, vegetable cultivation will also take a big hit in the State.
And the bad news is it will move towards northern Odisha coast and may hit between Jagatsinghpur and Balasore by November 10-11.
And if the models are to be believed, the wind models suggest that the system may make landfall in and around False Point in Kendrapada district (As shown in the Picture).
Significantly, October - November period has been the cyclone season in BoB. But post brewing up Fani in May this year, the BoB has been relatively quieter this year till date, when the usually cooler Arabian Sea has brewed up two cyclones - Kyarr and Maha - in quick succession.
As per the wind models forecast of INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services), under Ministry of Earth Sciences, the low pressure system will develop into a tropical cyclone and move towards the Odisha coast.
The reason: the wind velocity of the system is predicted at around 38 knots, when a system with a velocity of 34 knots is termed as cyclone in BoB.
However, IMD in its mid-day weather inference today mentioned only about formation of a LOPAR over north Andaman sea and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal by November 4. And it becoming a depression by November 7.
But the weather inferences show the depression will later progress into a cyclonic system.
As per the weather norms, a depression in Bay of Bengal could develop into a cyclonic system, provided the central pressure of the Low-Pressure system falls by 5-6 hPa (HectoPascal). Since the central pressure of the system is predicted to drop to around 995 -1002 hPa by November 9, which is atleast 13 hPa less than the mean sea level pressure, the system then will certainly become a tropical cyclone.
Moreover, the cyclonic systems have a angular momentum and they move towards pole, for which, the IMD has made a forecast that the system will move northwestwards post forming depression.
"As the movement of a cyclone to higher latitudes (from equator towards poles) creates an acceleration to the east. So an initially westward moving system, on average, begins to veer to the north and as it does so its westward movement slows and eventually turns into an eastward movement. And in this scheme of things, Odisha coast comes into picture," explained a retired senior IMD scientist.
While IMD's latest bulletin has been quite conservative as it only has predicted the system developing into depression by November 7 and its further intensification later, the US Navy has gone a step further and predicted that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone in next 96 hours (around November 8), when system's wind velocity will touch 35 knots or 65 km/hour. The high Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of 29-30 deg Celsius will aid the systems' intensification, says JTWC's latest summary.
World's lead weather agencies like US based Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) have also categorically predicted that BoB is going to churn another cyclone after extremely severe cyclone Fani that hit Odisha coasts in May this year.
Even, the premier ocean research agency of India, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), under ministry of Earth Sciences, has also made a forecast about the system developing into a tropical cyclone by November 9.
The moot point then is whether the cyclonic system will have any impact on Odisha? And it is where, lead weather agencies present a discordant view.
For Odisha, the good news is US-based GFS model shows the system after racing towards Odisha coasts till November 9, will then deflect towards east by November 10-11. And if the prediction proves true, then Odisha will receive only heavy rains and no cyclone blues.
However, predictions by two other lead agencies like ECMRWF and INCOIS are news of discomfort for Odisha. Both the lead agencies predict the system to hit Odisha.
And both are unanimous on the day of strike on Odisha. They say the tropical cyclone to hit Odisha's northern coasts by November 10-11.
And the significant fact is the intensity of cyclone will upgrade to 'severe' cyclonic storm by November 7.
While IMD bulletin says the system is now 950 km south-southeast from Paradip, it is 1020 km and 1000 km from Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Kheppura (Bangladesh), respectively, JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) latest summary has also confirmed the depression to progressing into a cyclone in next 24 hours and move north-northwestwards.
The IMD bulletin has also predicted the tropical cyclonic system to move north-northwestwards towards Odisha-West Bengal coasts, IMD DG Mritunjaya Mahapatra says it may skip the Odisha coasts.
Regarding the intensity of the cyclone, IMD MD says it will upgrade into severe cyclone by November 7. JTWC says the cyclone will intensify in next 72 hours (by Nov 7). It further said that the system has persistent deep convection. The sea surface temperature of 30-31 deg C and low-moderate vertical wind shear will aid its intensification, JTWC observed.
In the meantime, SRC Odisha, P K Jena, holding his first presser post IMD's confirmation of depression progressing into a cyclone, maintained that the cyclone may skip Odisha.
"IMD has made a forecast of light to moderate rainfall in Odisha, especially northern Odisha, from November 8," he added.
Meanwhile, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), the ocean information services unit of Govt of India, in its latest wind model forecast maintained that the cyclone will be hitting Odisha coast at around 5:30 hours on November 10.
Significantly, its INCOIS, whose wind model has predicted from Wednesday last about the tropical disturbance progressing into a cyclone by Nov 9-10.
The ECWF's (European Centre for Weather Forecasts) latest forecast maintained that the tropical cyclone will hit Odisha coast on November 9-10. Like INCOIS, the predicted landfall area is Jagatsinghpur.
However, US met agency Global Forecast System's (GFS) latest forecast reiterated its yesterday observation, but with little modification.
The GFS forecast says the system will first move north-northwestwards towards Odisha, then drift away towards Bangladesh and then re-curve to cross southern Andhra Pradesh coast on November 14. Seemingly, a very peculiar forecast.
Because, such steep recurves are very very rare. Cyclonic systems mostly follow linear path. Instances of normal recurves are very few.
While it is still the early days to pin-point the path of cyclone, what looks disappointing is the approach of the SRC Office. During his media interaction, instead of taking the approach that Odisha is 24X7 ready to tackle any eventuality, the SRC's approach looks escapist.
"As IMD is saying cyclone 'may' skip Odisha, the danger doesn't lurks now over Odisha. The SRC then added if the cyclone changes its path, we have 2-days in hand.
As per NDMA guidelines, mobilisation and evacuation is possible within 48 hours of alert. But to mitigate flash floods due to heavy downpour in vulnerable areas, the SOP on checking canals, drains or surface tanks need to be activated at least before 96 hours.
This is what happened with Titli cyclone. IMD then has predicted the cyclone to make landfall at Gopalpur, but Titli winged up towards Palasa and post landfall entered Gajapati district. The administration there was caught unawares. And cyclone wrecked havoc in Gajapati and Ganjam.
The bottom line is still no lessons were learnt.
https://youtu.be/4-hi6UndNY4