The Total Health Expenditure constitutes current and capital expenditures incurred by Government and private sources including external or donor funds. As per the report, the Current Health Expenditure (CHE) is Rs. 5,40,246 crores which is 90.58 per cent of THE and capital expenditures is Rs. 56,194 crores, which is 9.42 per cent of THE.
The Capital expenditures are reported for all sources of Government - Union Government is Rs. 18,468 crores; State Government Rs. 37,477 crores; external donors Rs. 249 crores, the report said. The Government Health Expenditure (GHE) including capital expenditure is Rs. 2,42,219 crores which is 40.61 per cent of THE, 1.28 per cent GDP, and Rs.1,815 per capita. This amounts to about 4.81 per cent of General Government Expenditure in 2018-19. Of the GHE, Union Government's share is 34.3 per cent and State Governments' share is 65.7 per cent.
The Expenditures by all Government Financed Health Insurance Schemes combined are Rs. 12,680 crores. Household's Out of Pocket Expenditure on health (OOPE) is Rs. 2,87,573 crores (48.21 per cent of THE, 1.52 per cent of GDP, Rs. 2,155 per capita) Private Health Insurance expenditure is Rs. 39,201 crores (6.57 per cent of THE).
Of the Current Health Expenditures (CHE), the Union Government's share is Rs. 63,256 crores (11.71 per cent of CHE) and the State Governments' share is Rs.1,06,056 crores (19.6 per cent of CHE). Local bodies' share is Rs. 5,451 crores (1.01 per cent of CHE), Households' share (including insurance contributions) is about Rs. 3,24,717 crores (60.11 per cent of CHE, OOPE being 53.23.per cent of CHE). Contribution by enterprises (including insurance contributions) is Rs. 29,789 crores (5.51 per cent of CHE) and NGOs is Rs. 8,484 crores (1.57 per cent of CHE). External/donor funding contributes to about Rs. 2,493 crores (0.46 per cent of CHE).
The CHE attributed Rs. 93,689 crores to Government Hospitals (17.34 per cent of CHE) and Rs. 1,55,013 crores to Private Hospitals (28.69 per cent of CHE), the report has said.
The Current health expenditure attributed Rs. 1,86,625 crores to Inpatient Curative Care (34.55 per cent of CHE), Rs. 1,01,902 crores to outpatient curative care (18.86 per cent of CHE), Rs. 4,170 crores to Day Curative Care (0.77 per cent of CHE) Rs. 18,909 crores for patient transportation (3.50 per cent of CHE), Rs. 22,526 crores to Laboratory and Imaging services (4.17 per cent of CHE), Rs. 1,01,928 crores to Prescribed Medicines (18.87 per cent of CHE), Rs. 18,881 crores to Over the Counter (OTC) Medicines (3.49 per cent of CHE).
The Therapeutic Appliances and Medical Goods of about Rs. 643 crores (0.12 per cent of CHE), Preventive Care of about Rs. 50,991 crores (9.44 per cent of CHE), and others of about Rs. 12,258 crores (2.27 per cent of CHE) also constituted current health expenditure.
The total Pharmaceutical Expenditure is 33.81 per cent of CHE, while expenditure on Traditional, Complementary, and Alternative Medicine (TCAM) is 4.28 per cent of CHE. The CHE attributed to primary care is of around 47.4 per cent, secondary care of 31.7 per cent, tertiary care of 14.9 per cent and governance and supervision of 4.0 per cent.
As per the report, after disaggregation, government's expenditure on primary care is 55.2 per cent, secondary care is 30.5 per cent and tertiary care is 5.9 per cent. Private expenditure on primary care is 36.9 per cent, secondary care is 33.3 per cent and tertiary care is 26.9 per cent, the NHA report said.
Experts though feel that it would be a tough task as current account deficit may further go up to more than 3 per cent of the GDP in the current financial year.
Government, on its part, feels that with prices of global commodities like crude oil, fertilisers and gold among others falling, the current account deficit will gradually cool down.
Official sources say that the aforementioned commodities consume a significant part of foreign exchange and as their prices are showing a downward trend, its positive impact on current account deficit will reflect in the near future.
Experts, however, differ completely from this estimation, as Sher Mehta, economist and Director of Research at Virtuoso Economics, feels that current account deficit is likely to worsen in the coming days.
"In my estimation, the current account deficit will probably worsen to 3.4-3.5 per cent of GDP and is likely to reverse only from the second half of 2023. Given the prospects of a rapidly weakening global economic environment, exports are likely to fare worse over the coming 9-12 months and most of the worsening of the current account deficit
will be due to a widening trade deficit," he said.
The country's monthly trade deficit for goods has been rising and in July, it had gone past $31 billion. As imports continue to rise and exports hitting a plateau, the current account deficit is expected to rise, said an industry and trade watcher.
Government on its part, is cautious about rising current account deficit, as could be seen from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's reply to a question in Parliament during the recently-concluded Monsoon session.
Asked whether the current account deficit will grow due to rising crude oil prices, she said that the government is carefully monitoring it.
At the same time though she said that current account deficit depends on various factors like exports and imports as well as on crude prices.
However experts on their part feel that it is highly unlikely that it can be reversed in the immediate future.
Only if exports rise, will current account deficit come down to tolerable limits, said an independent economist requesting anonymity.
However due to global recessionary trends and the government imposing ban on export of food items like wheat and rice, growth in exports seems difficult as of now, he added.
On the other hand, India's forex reserves have slid drastically to $560 billion from a peak of $640 billion till almost a year back. This has basically happened due to rupee depreciation, the economist said.
Therefore as the country imports costly items and commodities like crude oil, medicines, semiconductors and electronic goods, the burden on the exchequer is rising and this is pushing the current account deficit higher.
So, under the current scenario, the current account deficit is likely to balloon and as a result of this, inflation will rise and forex reserves will deplete, say experts.
Addressing a press conference after the release of GDP data on Wednesday, which showed that first quarter growth in the current fiscal stood at 13.5 per cent, down from 20.1 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding period of last year, he said that India's GDP has crossed pre-pandemic levels.
"India is on course to achieve 7 per cent growth in the current fiscal," Somanathan said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected GDP growth to be at 7.2 per cent for 2022-23.
Somanathan also said that the government is on course to meet the fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal.
The country's fiscal deficit is projected at 6.4 per cent of the GDP for this fiscal ending March 2023 as against 6.71 per cent for the previous year.
Difference between total expenditure and revenue of the government is called fiscal deficit.
At the same time, Somanathan added that there could be more spending on food and fertiliser subsidy during the current financial year.
There would no restrictions on government's capital expenditure, he said.
The Finance Secretary also informed that the Government will stick to the current fiscal's borrowing target.
The government plans to borrow Rs 11.6 lakh crore in 2022-23 to meet its expenditure requirements.
Secretary, Economic Affairs Ajay Seth, who was also present on the occasion, said that the gross capital formation is highest in 10 years in this quarter.
He said that July's GST collection is seen at Rs 1.4 lakh crore.
Asked about cryptocurrency regulations, Seth said that the government expects global dialogue on cryptocurrency to intensify.
He informed that the volume of e-way bills generation in August registered a year-on-year growth of 15 per cent at Rs 7.56 crore, indicating robust domestic economic activity.
In the April-July period of the current financial year, fiscal deficit narrowed to 20.5 per cent of the budget estimates as compared to 21.3 per cent in the corresponding period of last year, he added.
"Given the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY23," the report said.
For FY23 also, as inflation remains elevated in the first half, the report said the projection is that nominal GDP will grow by 16.1 per cent.
The report mentioned some of the factors that will impact the GDP growth for FY23.In FY22, around 2000 Corporates in listed space reported 29 per cent growth in top line and 52 per cent growth in profit after tax, besides sector-wise data for April Indicated that credit off-take had happened in almost all sectors.
"Personal loans segment continued to perform well, registering acceleration in growth to 14.7 per cent in April 2022 and contributed around 90 per cent of the incremental credit during the month, primarily driven by 'Housing', 'Vehicle Loans' and 'Other Personal Loans' segments. Customers, especially in retail verticals could be having a feel of future run expected in interest rates, and might be front loading their purchases in days to come, giving a fillip to consumer demands in select niche areas."
Further, SBI Research said it expects central bank RBI to be supportive of growth and hike repo rates gradually, but mostly front load it in June and August policy review meetings.
It expects a 50 basis point repo rate hike and 25 basis point cash reserve ratio rate hike in forthcoming June policy meet. RBI is likely to raise the repo rate cumulatively by 125-150 basis points over the pandemic level of 4 per cent. RBI might also increase the cash reserve ratio rate cumulatively by another 50 basis points, after raising it by 50 basis points in the last monetary policy meet.
Lastly, the report said it was keenly watching the uncertainties regarding the crude oil prices. "At $120 per barrel, it still poses significant uncertainties regarding inflation trajectory. We, however, now believe that inflation will average 6.5-6.7 per cent in FY23 on the back of excise rate cuts by the government. Independent forecasts reveal that oil prices could climb further before declining, but it might still hold up at current levels for a longer period of time."
In a statement after the Monetary Policy Committee's bi-monthly meet, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the real GDP growth is projected at 16.2 per cent in Q1FY23, at 6.2 per cent in Q2; at 4.1 per cent in Q3 and Q4 at 4 per cent, assuming that crude oil (Indian basket) price is at $100 per barrel during 2022-23.
"As the horizon was brightening up, escalating geopolitical tensions have cast a shadow on our economic outlook. Although India's direct trade exposure to countries at the epicentre of the conflict is limited, the war could potentially impede the economic recovery through elevated commodity prices and global spillover channels," he said.
"Further, financial market volatility induced by monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies renewed Covid-19 infections in some major countries with augmented supply-side disruptions and protracted shortages of critical inputs, such as semi- conductors and chips, pose downside risks to the outlook."
Besides, the governor said that going forward, robust Rabi output should support recovery in the rural demand, while a pick-up in contact-intensive services should help in further strengthening urban demand.
"Investment activity may gain traction with improving business confidence, pick up in bank credit, continuing support from government capex and congenial financial conditions."
"'Capacity utilisation' (CU) in the manufacturing sector recovered further to 72.4 per cent in Q3:2021-22 from 68.3 per cent in the previous quarter, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of 69.9 per cent in Q4:2019-20."
On Friday, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.
In addition, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained.
Accordingly, the ratings agency believes that its 'FY23 Economic Outlook' released in January 2022 is unlikely to hold in view of the global geo-political situation arising out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
"Since the duration of Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be uncertain, Ind-Ra has created two scenarios with respect to the FY23 economic outlook basis certain assumptions."
According to Ind-Ra, in scenario-one, crude oil price is assumed to be elevated for three months, and in scenario-two, the assumption is for six months, both with a half cost pass-through into the domestic economy.
"Ind-Ra expects GDP to grow 7.2 per cent YoY in 'Scenario 1' and 7 per cent YoY in 'Scenario 2' in FY23, compared to its earlier forecast of 7.6 per cent."
"However, the size of the Indian economy in FY23 will still be 10.6 per cent and 10.8 per cent lower than the FY23 GDP trend value in 'Scenario 1 and Scenario 2', respectively."
As per the agency, consumption demand as measured by private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) has been subdued in FY22, despite sales of select consumer durables showing some signs of revival during the festive season.
"As the consumer sentiment is likely to witness a further dent due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict leading to rising commodity prices or consumer inflation, Ind-Ra expects PFCE to grow at 8.1 per cent and 8 per cent in 'Scenario 1 and 2', respectively, in FY23, as against its earlier projection of 9.4 per cent."
Besides PFCE, Ind-Ra said that private capex by large corporates, which has been down and out over the past several years, had shown some promise lately in view of the roll-out of the 'Production-linked Incentive Scheme' and increased manufacturing sector capacity utilisation driven by higher exports.
"However, Ind-Ra expects the surge in commodity prices and disruptions in global supply chain caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict to take a toll on their sentiments and there is a likelihood that this capex may get deferred till more clarity emerges with respect to the conflict."
"Government capex, however, is unlikely to be dented. By scaling up the capex to GDP ratio for FY22 to 2.6 per cent as per revised estimate from the budgeted 2.5 and budgeting the capex at 2.9 per cent of GDP for FY23, the government has been showing its resolve to do the heavy lifting."
Furthermore, the agency cited that although the Centre acknowledges the adverse impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the ongoing Indian economic recovery, it is unlikely to scale down its fiscal support already announced in the FY23 budget.
"Even the RBI has so far resisted the temptation to tighten its monetary policy stance, despite retail inflation being close to its upper tolerance level and/or occasionally breaching it."
"Although there is a case for a 50bp increase in the policy rates in FY23, the RBI may still opt for accommodation, because it believes initiating a premature demand compression via a monetary policy action would be counterproductive, particularly when the recovery is fragile and there is an output gap in the economy."
The Economic Survey 2021-22, tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament, expects the economy to grow by 9.2 per cent during the current financial year, indicating a recovery to the pre-pandemic level.
The economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in 2020-21 on account of impact of COVID pandemic and subsequent nationwide lockdowns to check the spread of coronavirus.
"Overall, macro-economic stability indicators suggest that the Indian economy is well placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23. One of the reasons that the Indian economy is in a good position is its unique response strategy," the survey said.
The Indian economy, as seen in quarterly estimates of GDP, has been staging a sustained recovery since the second half of 2020-21. Although the second wave of the pandemic in April-June 2021 was more severe from a health perspective, the economic impact was muted compared to the national lockdown of the previous year.
"Advance estimates suggest that GDP will record an expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22. This implies that the level of real economic output will surpass the pre-COVID level of 2019-20," the survey said.
The survey expects private sector investment to pick as financial system is in good position to provide support necessary for speedy revival of the economy.
The document authored by a team lead by Principal Economic Adviser Sanjeev Sanyal further said the fiscal support given to the economy as well as the health response caused the fiscal deficit and government debt to rise in 2020-21. However, there has been a strong rebound in government revenues in 2021-22 so far.
As per the survey, the government has the fiscal capacity to maintain the support, and ramp up capital expenditure when required.
The strong revival in revenues also provides government with fiscal space to provide additional support as well, if necessary, it added.
Also, the banking system is well capitalised and the overhang of Non Performing Assets (NPAs) seems to have structurally declined even allowing for some lagged impact of the pandemic.
Referring to the price situation in the country, the survey said "although the high WPI inflation is partly due to base effects that will even out, India does need to be wary of imported inflation, especially from elevated global energy prices".
"Overall, macro-economic stability indicators suggest that the Indian economy is well placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23.
The growth in 2022-23, it said will be supported by widespread vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms and easing of regulations, robust export growth, and availability of fiscal space to ramp up capital spending.
"The year ahead is also well poised for a pick-up in private sector investment with the financial system in a good position to provide support to the revival of the economy. Thus, India's GDP is projected to grow in real terms by 8.0-8.5 per cent in 2022-23," it said.
The projection, according to the survey, is based on the assumption that there will be no further debilitating pandemic related economic disruption, monsoon will be normal, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be broadly orderly, oil prices will be in the range of USD 70-75 per barrel, and global supply chain disruptions will steadily ease over the course of the year.
The survey also said India's external sector is resilient to face any unwinding of the global liquidity arising out of the likelihood of faster normalisation of monetary policy by systemically important central banks, including the Fed, in response to elevated inflationary pressures.
The latest survey has shifted from the two-volume format of recent years to a single volume plus a separate volume for statistical tables.
The current account, which records the value of exports and imports of both goods and services along with international transfers of capital, was in a surplus mode both in the quarter-ago and year-ago periods.
India's current account surplus had stood at USD 6.6 billion or 0.9 per cent of GDP in the April-June 2021 quarter, while in the year-ago period (Q2FY22), the surplus had stood at USD 15.3 billion or 2.4 per cent of the GDP, the data said.
For the first half of the fiscal year, India recorded a current account deficit of 0.2 per cent of GDP as against a surplus of 3 per cent in the year-ago period, on the back of a sharp increase in the trade deficit, the RBI said in the data on Balance of Payments.
In the reporting quarter, the deficit was mainly due to widening of trade deficit to USD 44.4 billion from USD 30.7 billion in the preceding quarter, and an increase in net outgo of investment income, the RBI said.
Net services receipts decreased marginally over the preceding quarter but increased on a year-on-year basis, on the back of robust performance of the exports of computer and business services, it added.
Private transfer receipts, which mainly represent remittances by Indians employed overseas, increased 3.7 per cent over the year-ago period to USD 21.1 billion, it said.
The net foreign direct investment (FDI) during the quarter recorded an inflow of USD 9.5 billion, much lower than the USD 24.4 billion a year ago, it said, adding that for the first half of the fiscal, the FDI inflows stood at USD 21.2 billion as against USD 23.9 billion for the year-ago period.
Net foreign portfolio investment during the September quarter was USD 3.9 billion as compared to USD 7 billion in the year-ago period. For the first half the fiscal, the portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of USD 4.3 billion which was lower than the USD 7.6 billion a year ago.
External commercial borrowings on a net basis recorded an inflow of USD 4.1 billion in the quarter, as against an outflow of USD 3.7 billion a year ago, while non-resident deposits recorded a net outflow of USD 0.8 billion as against an inflow of USD 1.9 billion in the year-ago period, the RBI said.
There was an accretion of USD 31.2 billion in the forex reserves on a BoP basis which included Special Drawing Rights allocation of USD 17.86 billion by the International Monetary Fund on August 23, it said.
The share of Government Health Expenditure in total health expenditure has also increased overtime. In 2017-18, the share of government expenditure was 40.8 per cent, a significant rise from 28.6 per cent in 2013-14. The NHAE report findings also show that the government's health expenditure as a share of total expenditure has increased from 3.78 per cent to 5.12 per cent between 2013-14 and 2017-18.
Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan released findings of the National Health Accounts (NHA) Estimates for India for 2017-18, here on Monday. As per the report, the government health expenditure in the term of per capita has increased from Rs 1,042 to Rs 1,753 between 2013-14 to 2017-18. The share of primary healthcare in current government health expenditure has increased from 51.1 per cent in 2013-14 to 54.7 per cent in 2017-18.
Primary and secondary care accounts for more than 80 per cent of the current government health expenditure. There has been an increase in the share of primary and secondary care in case of government health expenditure. In private sector, the share of tertiary care has increased, but the primary and secondary care show a declining trend. Between 2016-17 and 2017-18 in government the share of primary and secondary care has increased from 75 per cent to 86 per cent. In the private sector, the share of primary and secondary care has declined from 84 per to 74 per cent.
The out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) as a share of total health expenditure has come down to 48.8 per cent in 2017-18 from 64.2 per cent in 2013-14 as per the report. Even in the case of per capita OOPE there has been a decline from Rs 2,336 to Rs 2,097 between 2013-14 to 2017-18. The findings also depict that the foreign aid for health has come down to 0.5 per cent, showcasing India's economic self-reliance.
This is the fifth consecutive NHA report produced by the National Health Systems Resource Center. The NHA estimates are prepared by using an accounting framework based on internationally accepted System of Health Accounts 2011, provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
With the present estimate of NHA 2017-18, India has had a continuous Time Series on NHA estimates for both the government and private sources for five years since 2013-14. These estimates are supposed to enable the policy makers to monitor progress towards the universal health coverage as envisaged in the National Health Policy, 2017.
The data released by the Union Ministry of Statistics on Tuesday showed that the country's GDP has recovered swiftly to clock a growth of 20.1 per cent in the April-June quarter of FY22 as against a contraction of 24.4 per cent seen in the same period of previous year.
Though the Q1 growth is a tad lower than RBI's expectation of 21.4 per cent growth, it is still on course to make a good recovery taking the economy back to its pre-Covid size.
According to a Bank of Baroda economic research, GDP is expected to grow at 9.7 per cent in FY22. The improving pace of vaccinations, government tax collections, exports and corporate investments in select sectors are a tailwind for growth, it has said.
Taking a similar line, a report by Kotak Institutional Equities expects GDP growth of 9 per cent in FY22 against RBI's own projections of 9.5 per cent growth. But the brokerage has cautioned that growth momentum may get disrupted if a third wave of the pandemic comes before a larger population gets fully vaccinated. Furthermore, one of the key drivers of growth in CYTD21 has been robust external demand, which risks slowing given the increasing Covid cases globally.
Additionally, surging freight costs and container shortages amid logistic bottlenecks pose downside risks to growth. So maybe the pressure of lower agricultural yield this year in wake of projections of lower than normal monsoon.
Agriculture sector has been pandemic resilient. Its output is 8 per cent above pre-pandemic level. A below normal monsoon poses a risk to its growth in FY22.
But according to BoB research manufacturing and construction activity are likely to do well on the back of exports and government spending. Contact intensive services sector is likely to recover with a lag and rising infections in certain states pose a risk to services recovery.
The workshop was organised for State legislators ahead of the special session on the bill tomorrow.
“We hope that the country’s GDP will increase by 2% after implementation of GST. Discussion on GST is going on since 2006 and we are sure that it will benefit both the consumers and the business community. This will certainly help the country’s economy to grow. Besides it will help improve the climate of business across the country,” said National Academy of Customs Excise & Narcotics (NACEN) director general and GST expert PK Das.
“Globally, over the years we are improving in the ease of doing business index. Small countries are adopting simple tax system which attracts business community. By implementing the proposed GST we can also create a better environment for business,” he stated adding GST will initially not apply to crude and high speed diesel.
Addressing media chief minister Naveen Patnaik said uniform tax system across the country will benefit the customers.
“Odisha Legislative Assembly has been convened tomorrow on GST bill. I am sure the workshop will provide an opportunity to enlighten our honourable members on different aspects of GST and pave the way for fruitful deliberations in the House,” the CM noted.
The State government has called for a special session of Legislative Assembly on May 18 and 19 to deliberate on the proposed bill in the House. The bill has been cleared in both the Houses of the Parliament. President Pranab Mukherjee has also approved the landmark legislation last year.
Health spending is made up of government expenditure, out-of-pocket payments (people paying for their own care) and sources such as voluntary health insurance, employer-provided health programmes and activities by non-governmental organisations.
The report "2018 Global Health Expenditure" revealed that in low and middle-income countries health spending is growing on average 6 per cent annually compared with 4 per cent in high-income countries.
While governments provide an average of 51 per cent of a country's health spending, more than 35 per cent of health spending per country comes from out-of-pocket expenses. And as a consequence, 100 million people are pushed into extreme poverty each year, the report said.
"Increased domestic spending is essential for achieving universal health coverage and the health-related sustainable development goals," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a statement on Wednesday.
"But health spending is not a cost, it's an investment in poverty reduction, jobs, productivity, inclusive economic growth, and healthier, safer, fairer societies," Ghebreyesus added.
In middle-income countries, government health expenditure per capita has doubled since the year 2000. On average, governments spend $60 per person on health in lower-middle income countries and close to $270 per person in upper-middle income countries.
However, in low and middle-income countries, new data suggest that more than half of health spending is devoted to primary healthcare. Yet less than 40 per cent of all spending on primary healthcare comes from governments.
In 2018 October, all 194 member states of the global health body recognized the importance of primary healthcare. The WHO urged them to act and prioritize spending on quality healthcare in the community.
The report also examined the role of external funding. As domestic spending increases, the proportion of funding provided by external aid dropped to less than 1 per cent of global health expenditure. Almost half of these external funds are devoted to three diseases -- HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis (TB) and malaria.
The report United Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2019 said that India's growth continues to be underpinned by robust private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal stance and benefits from earlier reforms.
"Yet, a more robust and sustained recovery of private investment remains crucial to lift medium-term growth," the report said, referring to the sustained slowdown in domestic private investment owing to various factors such as the massive accumulated non-performing assets (NPAs or bad loans) of banks, highly leveraged corporates and a general credit crunch.
"There is very little controversy about India's growth potential and there is a consensus about the country being poised on the 7.4-7.5 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate," UNESCAP's Director and Head South and South-West Asia Office, Nagesh Kumar, told reporters here at the launch of the report.
Noting that India's growth currently is fuelled by private consumption with the potential of expanding on the back of "pent-up demand", Kumar said that a revival of private investment could help push the country's growth trajectory above the 8 per cent level.
He said the downside risks to these growth projections are posed by political uncertainty bearing on the pace of reforms, global oil price volatility and financial instability created by a tightening in global financial markets.
On the global economic prospects, the report said it would continue to grow at a steady pace of around 3 per cent in 2019 and 2020, after expanding by 3.1 per cent in 2019, "amid signs that growth has peaked."
"However, a worrisome combination of development challenges could further undermine growth," it said.
The risks to the outlook are building, economic growth is uneven and is often failing to reach the regions and individuals where it is most needed, it added.
"These risks include waning support for multilateral approaches; the escalation of trade policy disputes; financial instabilities linked to elevated levels of debt; and rising climate risks, as the world experiences an increasing number of extreme weather events," the report said.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that while global economic indicators remain largely favourable, "they do not tell the whole story".
He also said the UN report raises concern over the sustainability of global economic growth in the face of rising financial, social and environmental challenges.
The statement said the provisional estimates of national income, for the financial year 2017-18 is estimated at 6.7 percent.
The GDP growth during the third quarter of the fiscal was at 7 per cent.
"GDP at 2011-12 prices in the fourth quarter (Q4) of financial year 2017-18 registered growth rate of 7.7 per cent as against 5.6 per cent , 6.3 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, in the first three quarters, Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2017-18. Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5 per cent), manufacturing (9.1 per cent) and construction sectors (11.5 per cent) contributed to the overall growth," the statement by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast that the global economy will grow by 3.6 per cent in 2017 and 3.7 per cent in 2018, both 0.1 percentage point higher than its previous forecast in July.
"The global recovery is continuing, and at a faster pace... we see an accelerating cyclical upswing boosting Europe, China, Japan, and the US, as well as emerging Asia," IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.
The IMF expects the Chinese economy to grow 6.8 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent next year, both 0.1 percentage point higher than its previous forecast in July.
The fund also revised upwards its US growth forecast to 2.2 per cent in 2017 and 2.3 per cent in 2018, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively, higher than its projection in July.
In his address at the 'Safaigiri Awards' function organised by the India Today Group on the occasion of Gandhi Jayanti, Naidu said that the situation is very serious as facts stand as every family loses approximately Rs 50,000 every year due to unsanitary conditions.
"World Bank report also says that lack of sanitation cost us 6 per cent of our GDP... This is people's cause. You are not doing any favour to anybody by participating in this because facts, the situation is very serious.
"This has to be understood by us all that we cannot achieve sustained progress if we adopt a 'business as usual' approach. We should correctively set for an innovative solution that will make a tangible difference," Naidu added.
The Vice President also blamed the "everything goes" attitude of the people which is dragging the country behind and said that this will not work anymore.
"This is mission without any commission, so there should not be any remission in this mission. Because this has to become a people's movement. Unfortunately ... this has become the habit of the people 'sab kaam sarkar karega, hum bekaar baithe to chalega. Aisa nahi chalega" (Government will do everything, I will do nothing. This won't work)," he said.
"We need to, one work towards creating an atmosphere, change the mindset, secondly, create infrastructure and thirdly we have to think in future going for punitive action also.
"Otherwise in a country of our size with a 130 crore population where people think that we have freedom to do anything.. but at the same time you are affecting others' health also and you are bringing bad name to the society," he said.
Naidu also lauded the women for their newfound demand for toilets and refusing to marry if there are none at their in-laws' houses.
"That will solve some of the problem definitely because everybody needs to get married... It's not mandatory but it's required," he added.
He congratulated those who won the awards saying that they will serve as role models for others
However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis the debt level increased by 1.29 per cent over the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.
"At end-June 2017, India's external debt witnessed an increase of 3.0 per cent over its level at end-March 2017, primarily on account of an increase in inflow of foreign portfolio investment into the debt segment of domestic capital market encompassed under commercial borrowings," the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.
"The increase in the magnitude of external debt was partly due to valuation loss resulting from the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis the Indian rupee and other major currencies."
According to the RBI, external debt to GDP ratio stood at 20.3 per cent as at end-June 2017, a shade higher than its level of 20.2 per cent at end-March 2017.
"Valuation loss due to depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis the Indian rupee and other major currencies was placed at $1.72 billion," the RBI elaborated.
"Excluding the valuation effect, the increase in external debt would have been around $12.24 billion instead of $13.96 billion as at end-June 2017 over the level at end-March 2017."
The RBI disclosed that commercial borrowings continued to be the largest component of external debt with a share of 37.8 per cent, followed by NRI deposits (24.3 per cent) and short-term trade credit (17.9 per cent).
As per standard practice, India's external debt statistics for the quarters ending March and June are released by the RBI with a lag of one quarter and those for the quarters ending September and December by the Ministry of Finance.
Jaitley's clarification came amid reports of the government planning a financial stimulus to give a boost to the economy as the GDP numbers in the first quarter dipped to a low of 5.7 per cent.
"How do you maintain balance -- support banks and at the same time maintain best standards of fiscal prudence. The last part is the current challenge we are facing. It seems the logical course to get back (to the earlier growth rate)," Jaitley said here at the Bloomberg India Economic Forum.
"Lare number of structural reforms have been taken in a year, but we have to make sure that capital does come and also maintain best standards of fiscal prudence. That is the balance we have to maintain. But there is no need to panic. But responsive action is needed and we are fully prepared for it," he said.
Jaitley said that there is need for fiscal prudence in the economy as the real answer lies in finding balance between structural reforms and growth.
"India and the world must be rest assured that government in India is conscious of this. So that the position we have gathered as the fastest growing economy for three years, we should be able to retain that. That is the level of aspiration we have," he said.
On being asked if the current economic situation in the country was a challenge, he said that there was no easy day in the management of the economy as every day was a challenge.
"Everyday is a challenge. There is no easy day in the management of economy. But we have learnt to live in an active democracy because the luxury which the commentators have, we don't have that privilege. We have to decide which way to go.
"If you don't decide, the challenges arise then. You take your time to decide, but eventually decisions have to be taken. There are multiple challenges, there are some which can be immediately addressed and some are because of external factors," he added.
On the challenge of addressing banking stress, he said that the government was at an advanced stage of consolidating and strengthening the public sector banks.
"We are at an advanced stage of our strategy. We are looking at both consolidating and strengthening banks. The object of consolidation is creating stronger banks. I can't put a timeline though," he said.
He said that when the issue of non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans started rising, banks were given various enabling tools, which worked only marginally.
With the Reserve Bank of India taking up top bad loan accounts for resolution, he said its success would be determined if the timelines were maintained.
"The crisis of the (bad) accounts can't be allowed to persist indefinitely," he said.
On the roll-out of Goods and Services Tax (GST), Jaitley said he was keeping his fingers crossed as "a huge chaos" was expected on the technical side but added that the implementation has been much smoother.
"I was keeping my fingers crossed. I was pleasantly surprised by the smooth rollout. Industry has taken to it. The returns have shot up. I was expecting major technical glitches. Any system can get glitches.
"This (GST) system has capacity of one lakh returns per hour, but if 50 lakh people wait for the last day, it is a problem that assessees are inviting on themselves. System can easily take 24 lakh returns per day," he said.
On the working capital blockage issue being faced by exporters under GST, he said that the government was "seriously looking into it".
"First two months may not be sufficient indication though. There are still lot of things that can be done to improve the export competitiveness of India," he added.
"From day one, this is a proactive government. We are analysing the economic indicators and appropriate action will be taken at right time. There is a problem of private investment. Government has seized the issue. Very soon you will hear from us," he said here while addressing the second "India Investor Summit" organised by New York based banking and financial services company J.P. Morgan.
Jaitley had chaired a high-level meeting on September 19 to review the economic situation and discuss measures. The meeting was attended by Railway Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian and Secretaries in the Finance Ministry -- Ashok Lavasa, Subhash Chandra Garg, Hasmukh Adhia, Rajiv Kumar and Neeraj Kumar Gupta.
The government is said to be considering a financial stimulus package following a sharp fall in latest key macro indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production as well as a widening current account deficit.
Pulled down by sluggish manufacturing, growth in the Indian economy in the first quarter of this fiscal fell to 5.7 per cent, clocking the lowest GDP growth rate since Narendra Modi took power in May 2014.
Asserting that corruption in the central government had become a thing of the past, Jaitley said that this is happening in states as well.
"India's confidence as a nation has increased tremendously in last few years," he said.
He said remonetisation following demonetisation last year has been successfully completed. "There is positive mood towards digitisation. As far as black money, benami transactions, etc. are concerned, it is no more safe in India to deal in excessive cash."
Speaking on bad loans of banks, he said, "Banks have done excessive lending in the past. Proposal of capital adequacy of the banks is also on the table."
On divestment, Jaitley said that the government had an ambitious target in the current fiscal.
"Even today, we have Air India divestment meeting. In the last few years, the market was quite volatile at times, so the government had to wait for the right time for divestment. As far as divestment is concerned, we never had any reservations about privatisation," he said.
Touching upon the issue of technical glitches under the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Finance Minister advised the traders to file their returns four to five days in advance before the due date to avoid last minute problems.
As far as bringing more items under the GST is concerned, he said that real estate would be the most easy to bring in.
"Demonetisation should not be seen as the reason for the fall in GDP. There was a six-week period when cash deficit existed and from January (2017) things were fine," he told reporters after taking charge of the office.
Kumar was appointed Vice Chairman in place of Arvind Panagariya, who opted to return to teaching in Columbia University in the US.
He said destocking by firms was the reason for the GDP fall. "Huge discounts were given and productivity also came down. A deflationary effect was negative after a long time. In every economy whenever there is a fundamental governance reform, such a situation is witnessed."
Kumar said that including governance capacity at the state level was a focus for him.
"Governance for states has to be given shape at NITI Aayog. It is important for the states to be on same page. Policy making is an activity which is to be participative. People and everyone have to come on the same level and what is achieved can be our own model of priority and development."
He said jobs have to be created and private investment is important in this regard. "We have to make sure that domestic investment is protected so that it picks up."
"This is an area where India has a lot of entrepreneurs. So, we have to ensure that their role and participation is appreciable."
He also talked of agricultural transformation and health and education as sectors that needed attention.
Thanking Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the responsibilty given to him, Kumar said, "Let me tell you that this is a dream job and (there is) no doubt about it."
"I started my career from the same building in 1975. I used to come to this building library as part of my research. I want to thank Panagariya ji also for nourishing the NITI Aayog work and has made my work easier," Kumar said.
"One of my biggest works will be to build team NITI. This is going to be a collective glory. We need to turn around initiatives. New NITI can transform the entire nation which is to be done now."
Kumar, a senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), is also Chancellor of the Gokhale Institute of Economics and Politics in Pune and the founding director of Pahle India Foundation, a non-profit research organisation that specialises in policy-oriented research and analysis.
Before CPR, he was Secretary General of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci).
"The 2016-17 GDP is going to be pushed up further from earlier estimates because of the change in the base year of IIP and WPI to 2011-12 from 2004-05. It could be... 40-50 bps higher in 2016-17 to what was predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO)," Sen, who is currently the country director at the International Growth Centre, told IANS.
"Since WPI is used for converting the current price series of GDP to constant price, the growth rate is going to step up further. There is a chance that GDP may get revised upwards on the basis of IIP also. IIP is used to calculate the non-corporate sector GDP. So, there will be some effect there as well," Sen said.
CSO had predicted a growth rate of 7.1 per cent for 2016-17, in which the October-December quarter was predominantly marked by the demonetisation.
The estimate has been questioned by analysts with the arguments that the projected growth rate failed to take into account the impact of demonetisation.
Sen said that the problem lies in the fact that the maximum brunt of demonetisation was felt by the unorganised sector and there is no assessment available on it.
"You are using essentially organised sector data to approximate what is happening in the unorganised sector. The direct measure of unorganised sector that we get is only once in every five years. In the interim, for the manufacturing sector, what is used is the IIP. But the IIP does not directly measure the unorganised sector. It only measures larger registered units, employing more than 10 people," he told IANS.
Sen noted that the government should come out with the revised GDP figures for all the years post 2011-12 as the change in base year of the key macroeconomic indicators will push up all the growth figures of the country.
"This data simply brings all three (GDP, WPI, IIP) in sync. They will hopefully release the full series from 2011-12 up till now because the entire series is going to change. It will change not only for the current year but right from 2012-13 onwards," he said.
"Because both IIP and WPI are used in the calculation of the GDP. We had a situation where the series that we got since 2011-12 have all been based on old IIP and old WPI, which is giving rise to a lot of unnecessary confusion," he added.
He also pointed out that the revision in the base year of the key macroeconomic indicators was "unusually delayed this time" and should have been done by the end of 2015-16.
"As far as WPI, IIP is concerned, the revision in base year should have been done a year and a half ago. Why this lag, I don't know. It should have come out by the end of 2015-2016. This delay is unusual. It has not happened before," he said.
"It was a large exercise. Delays usually take place on getting the firms to submit the data. This process takes time, but this time it has taken too long. Maybe the number of firms being surveyed this time was much larger," he added.
Despite the push on account of revision of base year, Sen said that it was unlikely that India will see an eight per cent growth in the current fiscal as it lacked a sustainable export growth and the global economy was still not performing well.
"It is unlikely that eight per cent growth is achievable in the current fiscal, given the fact that the global economy is still not doing hell of a lot. It is very unlikely that we will be able to cross 8 per cent on a sustained basis. You need strong export growth. So far the only export growth that you see is for one month. You don't know how sustainable that's going to be," Sen told IANS.
With over 391 million users, India is already the second highest country in terms of mobile internet users.
According to the report titled 'The $250 Billion Digital Volcano: Dormant No More', the users are expected to grow rapidly to 650 million mobile internet users by 2020.
At the same time, data consumption by 2020 could potentially increase 10 to 14 times.
"Firstly, by 2020, 4G enabled devices are expected to grow six times to 550 million devices, constituting 70 per cent devices in use. Secondly, reliable high speed data is becoming both ubiquitous as well as mass affordable," said Nimisha Jain, a BCG partner and co-author of the report.
High-speed mobile internet adoption is set to reach 550 million users by 2020, almost 85 per cent of the total mobile internet users, the findings showed.
Average data consumption is projected to reach 7-10GB per user per month by 2020.
"Innovation is what leads to sustainability and sustainable growth in the current entrepreneurship ecosystem will enable India to chart its own success story," added Geetika Dayal, Executive Director, TiE Delhi-NCR.
"(China will) pursue better results in actual economic work", according to the report delivered by Prime Minister Li Keqiang at the opening meeting of the annual session of China's top legislature, the National People's Congress.
This closely-watched target is a 25-year low, down from last year's actual growth of 6.7 per cent. The previous low was a 6 percent target for the gross national product growth in 1992, Xinhua news agency reported.
The projected target is in line with both economic principles and realities, the report said, adding that it will help stabilise market expectations and facilitate the country's structural adjustments.
It will also contribute to achieving the goal of finishing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020.
"An important reason for stressing the need to maintain steady growth is to ensure employment and improve people's lives," Li said.
This year's target for urban job creation is over 11 million, up by 1 million from 2016, underlining the greater importance China attaches to employment.
"Considering our sound economic fundamentals and the capacity they bring for job creation, this target is attainable with hard work," the Prime Minister said.
Jia Kang, a national political advisor and economist with the China Academy of New Supply-side Economics, said that China has set a "reasonable target" for economic growth.
China's year-on-year growth has slowed for six years in a row, falling from a growth rate of more than 10 per cent in 2010.
"With more and more encouraging signs for economic improvement, the economy may find the bottom near this year's target," Jia said.
China's 6.7 per cent growth last year outpaced most other economies and accounted for more than 30 per cent of global growth, according to the report.
The consumer price index rose by 2 per cent in 2016. Industrial profits rose 8.5 per cent, reversing the previous year's drop of 2.3 per cent.
Energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 5 per cent, according to the report.
"Both the quality and efficiency of economic performance improved markedly last year," Li said.
Against the backdrop of sluggish world economic growth, backsliding on globalisation and growing protectionism, Li said China is enjoying many good conditions for sustaining economic development.
China has a solid material foundation, abundant human resources, a huge market and a complete system of industries. It is also making faster scientific and technological progress and owns a complete range of infrastructure, the Prime Minister said.
"China also has many innovative tools and policy options for conducting macroeconomic regulation," he said.
In 2017, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to hold the economy within an appropriate range, according to the report.
While the deficit-to-GDP ratio stays unchanged from last year, the government fiscal deficit is set at 2.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200 billion yuan.
The government will apply a full range of monetary policy instruments, maintain basic stability in liquidity, hold market interest rates at an appropriate level, and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
Efforts will be made to encourage a greater flow of financial resources into the real economy, particularly in support of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and small and micro businesses, the report added.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices (2011-12) had grown at 6.3 per cent in July-September quarter of the last fiscal, according to government data released Friday.
The size of the GDP in the second quarter of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 33.98 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.72 lakh crore a year ago, showing a growth rate of 7.1 per cent, as per a statement of the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Indian economy grew at 8.2 per cent in April-June quarter of this fiscal.
The GDP growth was 7.7 per per cent in January-March quarter while it was at 7 per cent in October-December.
The Chinese economy had expanded at the rate of 6.5 per cent in the July-September period this year.
India's GVA (gross value added) at Constant (2011-2012) Prices for second quarter this fiscal is estimated at Rs 31.40 lakh crore, as against Rs 29.38 lakh crore year ago, showing a growth rate of 6.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
The CSO said that mining and quarrying output has declined by 2.4 per cent in the quarter from a growth of 6.9 per cent in year ago period.
However, the manufacturing activities expanded at the rate of 7.4 per cent in the quarter under review up from 7.1 per cent in the year ago quarter.
The construction sector too showed an improvement by recording a growth of 7.8 per cent as against 3.1 per cent earlier.
The farm sector too grew at a higher rate of 3.8 per cent in the quarter as against 2.6 per cent a year ago
The growth cemented India's position as the fastest growing major economy, clocking higher expansion rate than China's 6.7 in the same quarter.
The gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the first quarter of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 33.74 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.18 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.2 per cent, a Central Statistics Office statement said.According to statement, the quarterly GVA (Gross Value Added) at basic price at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 31.63 lakh crore, as against Rs 29.29 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8 per cent over the year-ago period.
The previous high quarterly GDP growth was recorded in July-September period in 2014-15 at 8.4 per cent.
As per the data, the quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from manufacturing' sector grew by 13.5 per cent as compared to contraction of 1.8 per cent in Q1 2017-18.
The Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector grew by 5.3 percent as compared to growth of 3 percent in Q1 2017-18.
In the third bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2018-19, RBI said various indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to be strong.
The statement issued after three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted that the progress of the monsoon so far and a sharper than the usual increase in MSPs of kharif crops are expected to boost rural demand by raising farmers' income.
"Robust corporate earnings, especially of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies, also reflect buoyant rural demand," the central bank said, adding that investment activity remains firm even as there has been some tightening of financing conditions in the recent period.
Based on an overall assessment, the Reserve Bank of India said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2018-19 is retained, as in the June statement, at 7.4 per cent.
As per the RBI, the growth would be in the range of 7.5-7.6 per cent in first half of the fiscal and 7.3-7.4 per cent in October-March 2018-19 period "with risks evenly balanced".
The central has also projected the GDP growth for first quarter of the next financial year at 2019-20 at 7.5 per cent.
The monetary policy statement further said that increased FDI flows in recent months and continued buoyant domestic capital market conditions bode well for investment activity.
The central bank said that activity in the manufacturing sector is expected to remain robust in Q2, though there may be some moderation in pace.
Rising trade tensions may, however, have an adverse impact on India's exports.
Despite the slowdown observed in early 2017 and the lingering effects from the demonetisation policy, the outlook for India remains largely positive, underpinned by robust private consumption and public investment as well as ongoing structural reforms," the United Nations said.
In its report 'World Economic Situation Prospects', released at the UN headquarters in New York, the UN said "GDP growth for India is projected to accelerate from 6.7 per cent in 2017 to 7.2 per cent in 2018 and 7.4 per cent in 2019".
At the same time, the report said, the performance of private investment remains a key macroeconomic concern.
"Gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP has declined from about 40 per cent in 2010 to less than 30 per cent in 2017, amid subdued credit growth, low capacity utilisation in some industrial sectors and balance sheet problems in the banking and corporate sectors. In this environment, vigorous public investment in infrastructure has been critical in propping up overall investment growth," it said.
According to the report, there exists some degree of uncertainty over the monetary policy stance in India.
"Subdued inflation, coupled with a good monsoon season, offers scope for additional monetary easing," it said.
Fiscal deficit in India has declined visibly, and it is expected to narrow further to 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2018, it added.
An upturn in the global economy now growing by about 3 per cent paves the way to reorient policy towards longer-term issues such as addressing climate change, tackling existing inequalities and removing institutional obstacles to development, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2018.
"The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2018 demonstrates that current macroeconomic conditions offer policy-makers greater scope to address some of the deep-rooted issues that continue to hamper progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in the foreword of the report.
The minister said an announcement with regard to the additional steps will be made after consulting Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Jaitley has held a series of meetings in the last few days with some of his ministerial colleagues and senior government officials to take stock of the situation and firm up steps to push up growth.
"We have taken note of all economic indicators which are available... the government will take any additional moves which are necessary. I am not in a position to announce today in the press conference. I will be certainly consulting the prime minister before that and when we decide, you will come to know," he told reporters here.
He further said this is a proactive government and has been reacting to the situation as when the situation demanded.
"We have been taking appropriate actions... we have been consistently moving on the reform agenda," he stressed.
Two years ago, India was touted as a rare bright spot in a gloomy global economy, with GDP growth outpacing a slowing China.
But since early 2016, GDP growth has fallen for six consecutive quarters, slumping to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent in the April-June quarter, with India losing the fastest growing economy tag to China for the second straight quarter.
Sectoral reasons and action points would be prepared, sources said, adding that high-level discussions with ministries such as the railways to assess the capital requirement for the year have been held and more such meetings would follow.
"We have taken note of all indications which are coming and over the last two days, I have had a series of discussions with some of my colleagues, secretaries and other experts within the government," the minister said.
Yesterday, he had a two-hour long review meeting that was attended by Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu, Railway Minister Piyush Goyal and Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar.
Besides, Additional Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister P K Misra, Commerce Secretary Rita Teaotia, secretaries in the finance ministry and Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian were part of the deliberation.
Stating that India has the potential to grow at the rate of eight to ten per cent, Subramanian said, "If we continue to do certain things that the government is doing and world economy picks up to a small extent, we can achieve double-digit growth rate over the next two to three years."
Elaborating on the growth rate, Subramanian who was addressing the Economic Survey Outreach programme at XIMB here, said the Centre has enacted a series of reforms in the last two years like passing of Aadhaar bill, bankruptcy law and now GST Bill.
This apart, the growth rate this fiscal will increase as there has been a good monsoon and a good export situation.
GDP grew at only 7.1 per cent in the first three months of 2016-17 compared to 7.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year.
Drawing a parallel with China, Subramanian said, "Given the level of democracy, we are underperforming for the last 50-60 years and now we have the opportunity to become normal again and become a fast growing economy."
The growth rate in China, he said, will slow down if it does not open up politically as no country can remain an outlier forever.
"China's growth rate is likely to come down to about four five per cent in next 10-15 years", the chief economic advisor said.
According to Crisil, the decisive electoral mandate has created the best environment in a long time to bite the bullet on government finances.
Registering their best-ever showing, BJP has won 282 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, becoming the first party after 1984 election to have majority in the Lower House. Its leader Narendra Modi would be taking over as the Prime Minister soon.
The rating agency has listed out five important things -- taming inflation, fiscal consolidation, improving asset quality at banks and their recapitalisation, encouraging debt markets and boosting manufacturing and employment -- which the new government has to do on a priority basis.
"Such an agenda will improve the country's competitive efficiencies and pave the way for its re-entry into the orbit of 6.5-7 percent GDP growth in the years to come," Crisil's chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi said.
The report said for taming inflation the new government will require to have a better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies and to take steps such as dismantling the APMC Act for reduction of food inflation.
There is also a need to bring in a sea-change in storage and distribution capacities for fruits and vegetables, particularly important in the current year in view of the rising risks of monsoon failure spurred by the El Nino, it added.
For fiscal consolidation, Crisil believes this will entail reduction in subsidies and curbing expenditure and ensuring that the money spent on social welfare schemes creates durable assets than remain just cash handouts.
It is also critical to simultaneously introduce growth and revenue-enhancing measures such as clearing the long-delayed GST and improving tax compliance, the report said.
The rating agency said the country's corporate debt market needs to be fostered for growth to be sustainably funded.
GSMA is an association of mobile operators and related companies devoted to supporting the standardising, deployment and promotion of the GSM mobile telephone system.
The report also claims that the mobile industry contributed $1.1 trillion to the Asia Pacific economy in 2014, equivalent to 4.7 percent of the region's GDP and an increase of nearly $200 billion compared to the previous year, with over a quarter of this economic contribution generated directly by mobile operators.
"The Asia Pacific region features some of the world's most advanced mobile markets, as well as fast-growing emerging markets that are using mobile as a platform to deliver essential services such as education, healthcare and banking," said Anne Bouverot, director general of the GSMA.
"The report demonstrates how mobile is enabling digital inclusion and building digital societies across Asia, supporting a new era of innovation in areas such as digital commerce, the Internet of Things and mobile identity," he added.
It also states that Asia Pacific now accounts for half of the world's unique mobile subscribers and mobile connections and will continue to grow at a faster pace than the global average over the next five years, adding 600 million new unique subscribers by 2020.
According to the report, mobile operators directly contributed $286 billion to the total in 2014, equivalent to 1.2 percent of regional GDP and predicts that the Asia Pacific mobile industry will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2020, accounting for 5.9 percent of projected regional GDP by this point.
As per the report, in 2014 the mobile ecosystem directly and indirectly employed 12.5 million people in Asia Pacific, a figure expected to rise to 15 million by 2020.
"Asia Pacific has a unique opportunity to lead the global development of the mobile-powered digital society, putting mobile at the heart of a new digital ecosystem," said Bouverot.
"By implementing market conditions that encourage investment and innovation, the Asia Pacific region will be able to fully realise the positive transformative social and economic potential of mobile for the remainder of the decade and beyond," he added.
Also, the report said the industry makes a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector, with approximately $130 billion contributed in 2014 in the form of general taxation. This is set to grow to over $150 billion by 2020.
"Promotion of national agricultural market through Agri-Tech Infrastructure Fund is a step in the right direction as it will step up reforms in the agricultural marketing sector," Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) president Jyotsna Suri said in a statement here.
"Unifying the national market through e-platform will give higher transparency and better market access at better prices for farmers," she said.
The government allocated Rs.200 crore for three years to set up the online agriculture market by integrating 585 wholesale markets across India.
The irrigation scheme will have an outlay of Rs.50,000 crore over a period of five years beginning the current fiscal.
The allocation for the current financial year is Rs.5,300 crore.
"With nearly 50 percent of Indian agriculture being rain fed, substantial investments in irrigation was the need of the hour, which this scheme seeks to address," the Ficci president said.
"The best part of the scheme is its decentralised nature that will provide states with flexibility in designing the implementation," she added.
"The increase in GDP growth can be expected on account of factors like benign oil prices, likely monetary policy easing facilitated by lower inflation and lower inflationary expectations," Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha told the Rajya Sabha in a written reply.
The latest Economic Survey has indicated that the GDP growth rate at constant market prices is likely to be in the range of 8.1-8.5 percent in 2015-16, he added.
The GDP grew at 7.4 percent in 2014-15.
"Let me begin with the good news. Fiscal deficit for 2013-14 will be contained at 4.6 per cent of GDP, well below the red line that I had drawn last year," Finance Minister P Chidambaram said in the interim budget presented in Parliament.
The fiscal deficit, which is the gap between expenditure and revenue, was 4.9 per cent of GDP in the previous financial year.
After talking over as Finance Minister in August 2012, Chidambaram had drawn up a financial consolidation road map to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, 4.2 per cent in 2014-15 and 3.6 per cent in 2015-16.
He said the government's objectives included fiscal consolidation, reviving the growth cycle and enhancing manufacturing.
The minister had on several occasions said he had drawn a red line for the fiscal deficit and it would not be breached.
As per current indications, the fiscal deficit has come down mainly on account of expenditure compression and higher realisation from the 2G spectrum auction.
The Finance Minister also said GDP growth has improved and will be 4.9 per cent for the current financial year.
Economic growth had slowed to a decade's low of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13.
The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014 (WESP) report said a mild recovery in investment as well as stronger export growth will help in the gradual GDP pick-up.
It said the Indian economy, which accounts for over 70 per cent of total output in South Asia,?slowed further in 2013.
The growth was held back by weak household consumption and sluggish investment, the report added.
Full-year growth decelerated to 4.8 per cent in 2013 from 5.1 per cent in the calendar year 2012.
It said external conditions continued to be challenging as the Indian economy experienced significant capital outflows, which led to a sharp depreciation of?the rupee.
"While India's slowdown may have bottomed out, the recovery is likely to be slower than previously expected.
Economic activity is forecast to expand by 5.3 per cent in 2014 and 5.7 per cent in 2015," the report said.
It said the gradual pick-up in GDP growth is likely to be supported by good monsoon, recovery?in investment and stronger export growth on the back of improved global conditions.
The report further said that global economic growth is expected to increase over the next two years with continuing signs of improvement.
The global economy is projected to grow at a pace of 3 per cent in 2014 and 3.3 per cent in 2015, compared to an estimated growth of 2.1 per cent in 2013.
"The euro area has finally ended a protracted recession.
Growth in the United States strengthened somewhat. A few large emerging economies, including China and India, managed to backstop the deceleration they experienced in the past two years and veered upwards moderately. These factors point to increasing global growth," the report said.
It said the central government is unlikely to meet its target of reducing the deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal year 2013/14, since growth is below projections and the depreciation of the rupee pushes up the subsidy bill.
"Development of railways is on the priority list of our Prime Minister. If the railways develop, the economy will also be strengthened. GDP will also rise by 2-3 percent," Prabhu said.
"Though our GDP is growing today, with a much more efficient railway system it will grow rapidly."
The minister added that the country's economy is on the path of improvement and progress and this has increased the responsibility of the railways.
The minister was here to flag off two new trains. He launched wi-fi facility at the city's railway station and later met Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel.
Prabhu added that increased investment in the railways will create new job opportunities.
The rating agency in its report Asia Pacific Sovereign Rating Trends said: "We could raise the rating if the economy reverts to a real per capita GDP trend growth of 5.5 percent per year and fiscal, external, or inflation metrics improve."
"Conversely, we may lower the rating if the government's structural reform agenda stalls such that economic growth does not accelerate, or fiscal and debt ratios fail to improve," S&P said.
According to S&P, the stable outlook rating for the next 24 months reflects its views that the new BJP-led government has both the willingness and capacity to implement reforms necessary to restore some of India's lost growth potential.
The agency also said the new government should also have the willingness and capacity to consolidate its fiscal accounts and permit the Reserve Bank of India to carry out effective monetary policy.
The S&P expects that political developments in few Asia-Pacific sovereigns will be an important factor in shaping credit trends in the next few years.
"New leaders in India and Indonesia have made changes that are welcomed by investors after they came into office in 2014," S&P said.
Further reforms that improve the investment climate and strengthen fiscal health in India and Indonesia could brighten long-term growth prospects.
In both countries, under-investment in infrastructure has resulted in constraints on development.
Diverting funds from subsidies to public investment and reducing barriers faced by businesses could unlock growth potential and strengthen credit support for these sovereigns.
Though not comparable, the GDP had grown by 4 per cent in 2019-20.
Accordingly, the pandemic-triggered national lockdown (from late March 2020) during Q1FY21 had a massive impact on the economy, which suffered a GDP contraction of 24.4 per cent. It was only on June 1, 2020 that the partial unlock measures were implemented.
However, pent-up demand and gradual opening up of economic activities arrested any other economic pitfall.
Nonetheless, the devastating impact on consumer services, urban demand and rising commodity prices had more or less painted a grim economic picture for FY21.
The data furnished by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that real GDP or Gross Domestic Product at constant (2011-12) prices in 2020-21 attained a level of Rs 135.13 lakh crore, as against the 'first revised estimate' of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.69 lakh crore.
On the other hand, on sequential basis, India's economy grew during the fourth quarter, which ended on March 31, 2021, by 1.6 per cent.
"'GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4' of 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 38.96 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.33 lakh crore in Q4 of 2019-20, showing a growth of 1.6 per cent," according to the GDP estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Besides, the CSO said: "There was a sharp spike from Rs 2.27 lakh crore in BE 2020-21 to Rs 5.95 lakh crore in the revised Estimates for the major subsidies (especially food subsidies) of Centre, presented in Budget 2021-22, in RE 2020-21."
"Revised provision of subsidies of Centre has been considered after adjusting for arrears of previous years and repayment or prepayment of loans, as per information received from Ministry of Finance," it said.
In terms of quarterly Gross Value Added (GVA), the NSO data showed a year-on-year rise of 3.7 per cent from 1 per cent in Q3FY21. The GVA includes taxes, but excludes subsidies.
On a sequential basis, Q4 GVA for 2020-21 from the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors grew 3.1 per cent, against 4.5 per cent in the preceding quarter of 2020-21.
The GVA from the manufacturing sector grew 6.9 per cent, as compared to a growth of 1.7 per cent in Q3FY21.
Furthermore, mining and quarrying contracted (-)5.7 per cent from (-)4.4 per cent in Q3FY21, while construction activity plunged by 14.5 per cent from 6.5 per cent.
The GVA growth rate of ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services', ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' and 'public administration, defence and other services' also increased during this period.
Another key growth gauge -- Gross Fixed Capital Formation -- which underscores the overall acquisition of produced assets in the economy, is estimated to have declined to 10.8 per cent in FY21 at constant (2011-2012) prices.
On yearly basis, the only component that showed growth in FY21 is the government's final consumption expenditure which grew at 2.9 per cent.
The other major components, namely private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), contracted by 9.1 per cent in FY21.
"Benefitting from the broad-based surge in volumes, India's economic growth improved in Q4 FY2021, although the impact of the low base related to the onset of the nationwide lockdown can't be written off," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.
"Nevertheless, as expected, the Indian economy firmly averted the double dip contraction that had been insinuated by the previously released advance estimates for FY2021," Nayar said.
According to Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, India Ratings & Research: "On the supply side, agriculture, as expected, grew at a robust 3.6 per cent in 4QFY21 and 3.6 per cent in FY21. However, the more heartening numbers came from the industrial sector which though contracted by 7 per cent in FY21, its various segments, except mining, witnessed accelerated growth momentum in 4QFY21.
"We must not, however, overlook the fact that a large part of the turnaround witnessed in 3QFY22 and 4QFY22 will get a push back in 1QFY22 due to the second wave of Covid, but the YoY numbers may still look good due to extremely low base of 1QFY21."
Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research: "As expected, agriculture has recorded a healthy GVA growth of 3.6 per cent in FY21 with all the other industrial and service sectors witnessing significant contraction under the severe impact of Covid.
"Contact intensive activities such as trade, hotels and transports have recorded a deep contraction of 18.2 per cent given the disruptions and the demand disruption created by the pandemic."
"The growth in GDP during 2018-19 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2017-18," said the official data released here on Thursday.
However, on a sequential basis, the Q3 CAD moderated from a higher level of $19.1 billion reported in the previous July-September quarter of FY19.
"India's current account deficit at $16.9 billion (2.5 per cent of GDP) in Q3 of 2018-19 increased from $13.7 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) in Q3 of 2017-18, but moderated from $19.1 billion (2.9 per cent of GDP) in the preceding quarter," the RBI said in its statement on developments in India's Q3 balance of payments (BoP).
"The widening of the CAD on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis was primarily on account of a higher trade deficit at $49.5 billion as compared with $44 billion a year ago."
According to the RBI, net services receipts increased by 2.8 per cent on a Y-o-Y basis mainly on the back of a rise in net earnings from telecommunications, computer and information services and financial services.
"Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to $18.7 billion, increasing by 6.3 per cent from their level a year ago," the RBI said.
"In the financial account, net foreign direct investment at $7.5 billion in Q3 of 2018-19 increased from $4.3 billion in Q3 of 2017-18."
In a statement, Singh said that implementation of Nyay, which envisages to provide Rs 72,000 per family every year to the poorest 20 per cent of population, would not entail any new tax on the middle class.
He said that the Congress is committed to fiscal discipline and Nyay would cost between 1.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at its peak.
"Our nearly $3-trillion economy has the fiscal capacity to absorb this expenditure. There will be no need for any new taxes on the middle class to finance Nyay. The economic stimulus that Nyay will provide will further help in fiscal discipline. It has been conceptualised after much thought and consultations with experts," Singh said.
He said Nyay is a powerful idea with dual objectives.
"On March 25, 2019, Congress President Rahul Gandhi unveiled Nyay -- Nyuntam Aay Yojana -- to wipe out the last remnants of poverty and to restart stalled economic activity in our nation," he said.
Singh said that Nyay has been received with tremendous enthusiasm by people and discussed widely across the nation.
"Nearly 70 per cent of Indians were poor when India attained Independence in 1947. With sound policies adopted by successive governments over the last seven decades, poverty levels have been brought down from 70 per cent to 20 per cent now. It is time now to renew our pledge to wipe out the last remains of poverty," he said.
Singh said Nyay would ensure a basic level of dignity and respect for every Indian family.
"By providing direct income support, Nyay will empower our poor with economic freedom and choice. With Nyay, India will usher in an era of a minimum income guarantee and help create a new social contract for a new welfare state."
"Nyay will also help restart our economic engine that has come to a stop today. Money in the hands of the needy will stimulate demand in the economy which can then lead to increased economic activity and job creation, referred to as the Keynesian effect by economists. At a time when private investment and industrial production are low, Nyay can help bring our economy back to life and create new factories and jobs," he added.
Singh referred to the economic reforms when he was the Finance Minister in 1991 and to the rural employment guarantee scheme brought by the UPA government led by him.
"Just as we brought in a new paradigm for India's development with the de-licensing regime in 1991 -- a rights-based approach to governance including the Right to Work under MGNREGA, I am confident a Congress party-led government in 2019 will implement Nyay successfully and usher in a new model for social justice and prudent economics," he said.
"It is my sincere belief that Nyay has the potential to catapult India into the club of 'poverty-free' nations in the world and I hope to be able to live to see our nation achieve this historic milestone," Singh said.
For the fical year 2018-19, the country recorded a GDP growth of 6.8 per cent, the lowest growth rate in five years. In FY 2017-18 the country recorded at 7.2 per cent growth in GDP.
The slowdown can be largely attributed to lacklustre growth in agriculture and mining sectors, as per the data.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector showed a growth rate of 2.9 per cent in FY 2018-19, against previous year's growth rate of 5 per cent. The mining and quarrying sector rose by 1.3 per cent against previous year's growth rate of 5.1 per cent.
In his opening remarks at the fifth meeting of the Governing Council of NITI Aayog, the Prime Minister said that empowerment and ease of living have to be provided to each and every Indian.
"The goal to make India a five-trillion-dollar economy by 2024 is challenging but can surely be achieved. The states should recognise their core competence and work towards raising GDP targets right from the district level," he said.
He noted that the export sector was an important element in the progress of developing countries and said both the Centre and the states should work towards growth in exports, in order to raise per capita incomes.
"There is immense untapped export potential in several states, including the north eastern states. A thrust on export promotion at the state level will provide a boost to both income and employment," he said.
Describing Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana as illustrations of what the Centre and the states can accomplish together, the Prime Minister urged the states to focus on collective responsibility for achieving short-term and long-term goals.
"Empowerment and ease of living have to be provided to each and every Indian. Everyone at this platform has a common goal of achieving a New India by 2022," he said.
The meeting was attended by the Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Chief Ministers, Lieutenant Governor of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and other delegates.
Singaporean lender DBS estimates FY20 growth to stay at 6.8 percent, the same as FY19. The economic survey earlier this month had pegged growth to rise to 7 percent.
"FY20 growth is likely to be sub-7 percent for a second straight year," its economists led by Radhika Rao, said in a note Wednesday.
The report said growth will "soften" in the first half of the fiscal and rise in the second half on base effect.
Alluding to the Reserve Bank's three successive rate cuts, the note said lower rates will also help prop up growth number in the second half.
It can be noted that the RBI has cut its key rates by a cumulative 0.75 percent so far in 2019 and has also shifted its stance to accommodative which will result in at least a 0.25 percent more reduction, as per governor Shaktikanta Das.
The report expects the focus on fiscal consolidation and low inflation will help the monetary policy to be more growth-oriented.
Listing out its reasons for slower growth, DBS said rural income and consumption will be pressured by the persistent negative terms of trade in the agricultural sector and a poor monsoon and said the income transfer scheme will help demand only at the margins.
FY19 growth was supported by public sector participation and the same will continue this year as well, especially as the election-related uncertainties ease up.
It attributed the slowdown to the ongoing crisis in shadow banks, which were funding the consumption drive before liquidity crisis hit them hard last September, as well as weakening global growth and the resultant demand slump.
"The Indian economy is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in April-June from a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in January-March," Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in their client note.
"High-frequency indicators continue to show familiar pain points -- a deep contraction in consumption, weak investment, a slowing external sector and an under-performing services sector," they said.
"The growth momentum is likely to pick up in the September quarter to 6.4 per cent and go further to 6.7 per cent in the three months after that," said Nomura citing data from its proprietary tools. "We will watch coming data prints to see whether they confirm or negate the sustainability of the turnaround in the growth cycle," it added.
But the brokerage firm also said the industry and investment indicators are relatively stable. "We believe the GDP is yet to bottom out, and expect it to moderate to 5.7 per cent in the June quarter, down from 5.8 per cent in the March quarter," the note said.
The report added that some indicators were showing early signs of bottoming out. The July data shows improvement in 53 per cent of the indicators as compared to 31 per cent in June, the report noted.
Nomura's Composite Leading Index (CLI) for Q3 (July-September) has ticked marginally higher to 99.9 from 99.8 in Q2, led by higher industrial production growth, an improvement in visitor arrivals growth, equity markets and lower policy rates.
"While the concurrent state of the economy remains a concern, nascent signs of green shoots and positive performance of leading indicators provide some signs that a recovery may be slowly materialising," said the Nomura report.
This is the slowest GDP growth in the last over six years. From 8 per cent during Q1 2018-19 to 5 per cent in this quarter, the GDP has fallen by three per cent in barely a year.
On a sequential basis, the growth rate came lower than the 5.8 per cent in Q4 of 2018-19.
According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), the GDP at 'Constant (2011-12) Prices' in Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 35.85 lakh crore, as against Rs 34.14 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 5 per cent.
Besides, the data showed that gross value added (GVA) growth rate during the first quarter of 2019-20 on a year-on-year (YoY) basis fell to 4.9 per cent, from 7.7 per cent during the the like period of the previous fiscal.
The GVA includes taxes, but excludes subsidies.
"GVA at 'Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices' for Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 33.48 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.90 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year," the NSO said in a statement.
"The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 per cent in Q1 of 2019-20 over Q1 of 2018-19 are 'Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services', 'Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting' and 'Public Administration, Defence and Other Services'."
"The growth in the 'Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing', 'Mining and Quarrying', 'Manufacturing', 'Construction' and 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' is estimated to be 2 per cent, 2.7 per cent, 0.6 per cent, 5.7per cent, and 5.9 per cent, respectively, during this period."
On a YoY basis, Q1 GVA for 2019-20 from the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector showed a growth of 2 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in 2018-19.
The GVA in 2019-20 from the manufacturing sector grew at 0.6 per cent, as compared to 12.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.
The mining and quarrying sector grew by 2.7 per cent, against the previous year's growth rate of 0.4 per cent.
GDP growth numbers:
Q1 FY20 GDP growth -- 5 per cent
Q4 FY19 - 5.8 per cent
Q3 FY19 - 6.6 per cent
Q2 FY19 - 7.0 per cent
Q1 FY19 - 8.0 per cent
FY19 GDP growth - 6.8 per cent
FY18 GDP growth - 7.2 per cent
The Congress leader said "all-round mismanagement" by the Modi government was responsible for the slowdown.
"The state of the economy today is deeply worrying. The last quarter's GDP growth rate of 5 pc signals that we are in the midst of a prolonged slowdown. India has the potential to grow at a much faster rate but all-round mismanagement by the Modi government has resulted in this slow down," he said in a statement.
Targeting the government, Singh said the country's youth, farmers and farm workers, entrepreneurs and the marginalised sections deserve better.
India cannot afford to continue down this path, he said, adding, "I urge the government to put aside vendetta politics, and reach out to all sane voices and thinking minds, to steer our economy out of this man-made crisis."
Singh said it is particularly distressing that the manufacturing sector's growth is tottering at 0.6 pc.
"This makes it very clear that our economy has not yet recovered from man-made blunders of demonetisation and a hastily implemented GST," he said.
The former PM alleged that institutions are under attack and their autonomy is being eroded.
On government taking Rs 1.76 lakh crore from the RBI reserves, Singh said the resilience of the RBI will be tested after this record transfer to the government.
This, he said, "claims that it does not have a plan on what it will do with this windfall".
Noting that domestic demand is depressed and consumption growth is at an 18-month low and nominal GDP growth is at a 15 year low, he said, "There is a gaping hole in tax revenues. Tax buoyancy remains elusive as businessmen, small and big, are hounded and tax terrorism continues unabated. Investor sentiments are in doldrums. These are not the foundations for economic recover".
Blaming the Modi government's policies for massive job-less growth, he said more than 3.5 lakh jobs have been lost in the automobile sector alone.
There will similarly be large-scale job losses in the informal sector, hurting most vulnerable workers, he said.
He said rural India is in terrible shape as farmers are not receiving adequate prices and rural incomes have declined.
The low inflation rate that the Modi government likes to showcase comes at the cost of our farmers and their incomes, by inflicting misery on over 50 per cent of India's population, he alleged.
The former prime minister, a noted economist, said the credibility of India's data has come under question under this government.
"Budget announcements and rollbacks have shaken the confidence of international investors. India has not been able to increase its exports to take advantage of opportunities that have arisen in global trade due to geopolitical realignments. Such is the state of economic management under the Modi government," he alleged.
The scathing attack by the former prime minister comes after the country reported a slow GDP growth rate of 5 per cent for the first quarter of this fiscal.
Sharp deceleration in manufacturing output and subdued farm sector activity pulled down India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to over six-year low of 5 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2019-20.
The industry which is suffering from high GST rate and lack of adequate liquidity had recorded a slump of 18.71 per cent in July, the highest monthly sales de-growth in the last 19 years.
On Monday, data furnished by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), showed that total sales of the Indian automobile sector declined by 23.55 per cent in August to 1,821,490 units from 2,382,436 units sold during the corresponding month of the previous year.
According to data, passenger car sales plunged by 41.09 per cent to 115,957 units against 196,847 units sold in August 2018.
The utility vehicles' sale declined by 2.20 per cent to 71,478, whereas van's off-take went down by 47.36 per cent to 9,089 units against the year-ago month.
Overall, passenger vehicle sales declined by 31.57 per cent in August to 196, 524 units against 287,198 units in the year-ago corresponding month.
In the commercial vehicle segment, sales were down by 38.71 per cent to 51, 897 units.