As a result of these efforts, the Indian economy has recovered from the negative effects of Covid, and the country is on its way to becoming the world's third and $5 trillion economy.
The good news is that the eight key industries that drive the country's economy -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement, and electricity -- have grown by 4.5 per cent.
This simply means that the Indian economy has returned to normalcy and is progressing.
India has the big goal of becoming developed and self-reliant by 2047, when the country attains its 100th independence day.
The Indian economy has recovered from the pandemic and is back on track. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year, GDP increased by 13.5 per cent (April-June).
At constant prices, the country's GDP was Rs 32.46 lakh crore in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021-22, while it grew by 13.5 per cent to Rs 36.85 lakh crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
Simultaneously, the common index of eight core industries, which contribute significantly to the country's economy, has increased by 4.5 per cent since July 2021.
The final growth rate of the eight core industries was revised to 9.5 per cent in April 2022, up from 8.4 per cent previously.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ongoing efforts to strengthen the economy are bearing fruit.
These latest figures show that the Indian economy has recovered from the pandemic's negative effects.
The country is now rapidly moving towards becoming self-reliant.
India has surpassed Germany to become the world's fourth largest automobile market. In 2021, India sold 37.6 lakh vehicles, while Germany sold 29.7 lakh vehicles. August is the fifth month in a row that more than 3 lakh cars have been sold in India.
In the global market, Indian products are now emerging as the first choice. India is the world's leading exporter of electronics, petroleum, and engineering goods.
Exports of these products increased by 17 per cent this year compared to the same period in 2021 (April-August).
The Indian government recognised an important fact when Covid first appeared -- the economic impact of this epidemic differed from the effect of the previous epidemic because the Covid epidemic was designed to have a negative impact on demand.
As a result, there was concern that the pandemic would have long-term economic consequences for the country.
However, the government's tight machinery was in place to ensure that such a situation did not last long.
As a result, a number of reform initiatives were launched. Labour reforms, agricultural reforms, changing the definition of a micro, small, and medium-sized enterprise, and implementing the production-linked incentive scheme were among them.
These reforms attempted to formalise the country's economy to a large extent.
The identification of shell units, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and the goods and services tax were all critical steps in bringing the economy under a set of rules and regulations.
The benefit of this was that there was an attempt to shape the economy in terms of shape, type, and behaviour. Simultaneously, a focus on job creating industries was sought.
The government had a clear vision that the country needed to address not only the immediate challenges but also ensure the recovery of economy and infrastructure development, both of which are critical to achieving the objectives.
The new generation of the country is now taking the risk of innovation, learning from mistakes, and getting involved with new energy.
Employment in MSMEs has increased by 116 per cent as compared to 2019-20.
It is the charisma of the growing youth power that drives the small scale industry, that is, India's MSME and start-up ecosystem is growing at the fastest rate in the world.
The global economy is experiencing "a number of turbulent challenges", as inflation higher than seen in several decades, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook, Xinhua news agency reported, citing the report.
"This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic and reflects significant slowdowns for the largest economies," the report noted.
A contraction in real gross domestic product (GDP) lasting for at least two consecutive quarters (which some economists refer to as a "technical recession") is seen at some point during 2022-2023 in about 43 percent of economies, amounting to more than one-third of world GDP, according to the report.
Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 per cent in 2021 to 8.8 per cent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 per cent in 2023 and to 4.1 per cent by 2024, the report showed.
Noting that risks to the outlook remain unusually large and to the downside, the latest WEO report said that monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to reduce inflation, more energy and food price shocks might cause inflation to persist for longer, and global tightening in financing conditions could trigger widespread emerging market debt distress.
The IMF warned that geopolitical fragmentation could impede trade and capital flows, further hindering climate policy cooperation.
"The balance of risks is tilted firmly to the downside, with about a 25 per cent chance of one-year-ahead global growth falling below 2.0 per cent -- in the 10th percentile of global growth outturns since 1970," the report noted.
The IMF argued that front-loaded and aggressive monetary tightening is "critical" to avoid inflation de-anchoring.
"Misjudging yet again the stubborn persistence of inflation could prove much more detrimental to future macroeconomic stability by gravely undermining the hard-won credibility of central banks," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Noting that fiscal policy's priority is the protection of vulnerable groups through targeted near-term support to alleviate the burden of the cost- of-living crisis felt across the globe, the IMF said the overall stance of fiscal policy should remain "sufficiently tight" to keep monetary policy on target.
An article published by the Guardian on Monday, noted that "the emergence of its neighbour, India, as a potential new economic superpower may be going under the radar."
"It still has enormous problems of poverty and poor infrastructure, but it is beginning to emerge as a rival to its large neighbour with the kind of economic growth figures that were once the pride of Beijing," the British news organisation said.
Just last week, the New York Times (NYT) pointed out that even as global economic growth has been slowing sharply, "with many major economies gripped with worries of recession," India has been an exception.
According to the NYT, a suite of government policies, including increased public investment, relief to debtors, and credit guarantees to small and medium-size firms hit hardest by the pandemic has helped the economy.
"Policy interventions have kept inflation - which has historically been high in India - relatively in check. And purchases of discounted oil from Russia, against the wishes of the United States and Europe, have helped buffer rising global energy prices," the NYT said.
India, which is now targeting to touch the $5 trillion economy level in the next few years, recorded a GDP growth rate of 13.5 per cent for the April-June quarter of the current financial year. During the same period, the US economy- the world's largest- contracted by 0.6 per cent and China, the second largest, recorded a growth of 0.4 per cent. The European Union's gross domestic product (GDP)- a measure of national income and output - grew 4 per cent in the April-June period.
With China's zero Covid approach leading to rise in uncertainties and dent in supply chain network, several multinational companies, especially from South Korea and Japan, are looking to expand their presence in India.
According to reports, the Tatas have already held preliminary talks with Taipei-based Wistron for setting up a joint venture to manufacture iPhones in India.
Biased coverage
But the western media has primarily chosen to project only one side of the India story.
In February, the Indian Institute for Mass Communication brought out a report 'Analysis of Global Media Coverage of Events in India' in which it highlighted how the western media have damaged India's image through their reportage and 'click bait' approach. Usage of words such as 'fear,' 'riot,' 'cow,' 'hate' and 'Muslim' among others have been rampant to build a negative narrative.
According to the All India Radio's news division, declining demand for print compounded with stiff competition and limited space to grow in their own countries, these Western media houses have found India as a lucrative market with third largest English speaking population. "Icing on the cake for them is India's vast and varied demography which makes it a complex society with many potential fault lines which can be exploited," it said.
Challenges however remain
The most crucial among the challenges is employment generation. That is not all. India must ensure equitable growth as well while improving the social development index. "The government is aware of the problem (unemployment rise). It is looking to address the issue through reforms along with the implementation of various schemes and programmes...in India, it takes some time to resolve such issues as implementation of new policies take a bit of time and consensus can be built only through dialogue," an insider told India Narrative.
He added that the government may aggressively implement labour reforms to address the issue.
Price rise is also hitting the common citizens. Surging global crude oil prices have pushed inflation, especially food prices though they are lower compared to many other countries.
"The government is continuously reviewing the situation on the ground and whatever is required, will be done," he added.
Meanwhile, on August 30, laying the roadmap for economic and social development for the next 25 years, India released a report on competitiveness. Christian Ketels, professor at Harvard Business School, one of the architects of the roadmap, speaking on the occasion highlighted that India's performance will have global ramifications. "How India addresses its competitiveness challenges and harnesses opportunities will affect how different countries address challenges they face," he said.
Initiating a discussion on prise rise under Rule 193 in the Lok Sabha, he alleged that one per cent of the people are controlling 77 per cent of the nation wealth.
GST has been increased on daily items like rice, curd, paneer and unfortunately, even the children have not been spared as stationary prices have also gone up. He spoke in Hindi and concluded the debate with a Punjabi couplet saying that since the demonetisation, the country's economy is on a downward trajectory.
Defending the government, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey said in the neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Bhutan, the inflation is rising and so is unemployment.
"Despite such a bad situation in India, the poor are still getting two-time meal for free.. should not the Prime Minister be thanked for it as the World Bank has given funds to various countries like Egypt."
He also attacked the Trinamool Congress over the cash recovered from former state minister Partha Chatterji's aide and Jharkhand Congress MLAs who were arrested in Bengal.
As per the report, Odisha's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is likely to grow at a rate of 7.14 per cent at 2011-12 prices.
The GSDP at 2011-12 prices stood at Rs 2.30 lakh crore in 2011-12 and increased to Rs 3.23 lakh thousand crore in 2016-17. It is further expected to rise up to Rs 3.46 lakh crore in 2017-18, at a growth rate of 7.14 per cent, the report said.
Agriculture and allied sectors experienced a decline of 4.70 per cent (AE) during 2017-18 as compared to a growth 19.65 per cent during the previous year.
The share of agriculture has declined to 20 per cent from 60 per cent in the 1960s while the share of population dependent on the sector continues to be significant at around 50 per cent.
As per the Economic Survey report, services sector was the leading contributor to GSDP with its share increasing from 38.54 per cent in 2011-12 to 45.22 per cent in 2017-18 surpassing agriculture and industries over the years.
The sector exhibited an accelerated growth rate of 10.7 per cent in 2016-17 and is estimated to grow at 12.4 per cent in 2017-18, the report stated.
The per capita income at base year prices in terms of GSDP is estimated to be Rs 77,193 in 2017-18, a 6.06 per cent growth from Rs 72,780 in 2016-17.
At current prices, the per capita income of the state during 2017-18 is likely to touch the level of Rs 92,727 as compared to Rs 126,349 at the national level.
The report said there was a need for continued policy priority for agriculture, especially in its allied sectors, in view of the high employment potential and favourable agro-climatic conditions.
The mining, manufacturing and construction sectors were estimated to grow moderately at 4.6 per cent, while electricity, water supply and other utility services sub-sector is expected to clock a growth rate of 9.6 per cent, the report added.
The consumer price inflation in the state was at 1.3 per cent till November 2017.
The IMF's Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook report said that India was recovering from the effects of demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax and "the recovery is expected to be underpinned by a rebound from transitory shocks as well as robust private consumption."
Medium-term consumer price index inflation "is forecast to remain within but closer to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's inflation-targeting banda of four per cent with a plus or minus two per cent change, the report said.
However, it added a note of caution: "In India, given increased inflation pressure, monetary policy should maintain a tightening bias."
It said the consumer price increase in 2017 was 3.6 per cent and projected it to be five per cent in 2018 and 2019.
"The current account deficit in fiscal year 2017-18 is expected to widen somewhat but should remain modest, financed by robust foreign direct investment inflows," the report said.
After India, Bangladesh is projected to be the fastest-growing economy in South Asia with growth rates of seven per cent for 2018 and 2019; Sri Lanka is projected to grow at four per cent in 2018 and 4.5 in 2019, and Nepal five per cent in 2018 and four per cent in next. (Pakistan, which is grouped with the Middle East, is not covered in the Asia report.)
Overall, the report said that Asia continues to be both the fastest-growing region in the world and the main engine of the world's economy.
The region contributes more than 60 per cent of global growth and three-quarters of this comes from India and China, which is expected to grow 6.6 per cent in 2018 and 6.4 per cent in 2019, it said.
The report said that US President Donald Trump's fiscal stimulus is expected to support Asia's exports and investment.
The Asian region's growth rate was expected to be 5.6 per cent for 2018 and 2019.
However, in the medium term the report said that "downside risks dominate" for the region and these include a tightening of global financial conditions, a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.
Because of these uncertainties the IMF urged the countries in the region to follow conservative policies "aimed at building buffers and increasing resilience" and push ahead with structural reforms.
"While mobile payments are expanding sharply in such economies as Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines, on average Asia is lagging sub-Saharan Africa," the IMF said, adding that the region should take steps to ensure it is able to reap the full benefits of increasing digitalisation in the global economy.
"Last five quarters have witnessed downward trend. The 6.3 per cent rise during Q2 of 2017-18 marks the reversal of that trend. This additionally indicates that the impact of demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax is now behind us and hopefully in the coming quarters will take an upward trajectory," Jaitley said at a press meet here on Thursday.
He said while this was broadly an initial analysis of the figures, "hopefully we can take to higher growth rate in the coming quarters."
Jaitley said if one looked at the overall picture since May 2014, out of 13 quarters the economy clicked 7 per cent growth eight times. "We have fallen behind 6 per cent only once. This marks a reversal and it has been largely enabled by manufacturing while investment has moved up. These are the two significant features."
Official data released revealed that a rise in the manufacturing sector's output pushed India's growth rate higher to 6.3 per cent during the second quarter of 2017-18 breaking a five quarters slump.
On a sequential basis, India's GDP growth for Q2 of the current fiscal went up to 6.3 per cent, from 5.7 per cent reported during the first quarter of 2017-18.
In a statement the finance ministry said the real GDP growth for the second quarter of fiscal 2017-18, just released by the CSO, is estimated at 6.3 percent, a substantial increase from 5.7 percent in the first quarter.
Real Gross Value Added growth has shown a similar increase from 5.6 percent in the first quarter to 6.1 percent in the second quarter, despite a deceleration in agricultural growth from 2.3 percent in the first quarter to 1.7 percent in the second.
The deceleration in overall growth witnessed since the first quarter of the last fiscal year has been reversed, the statement added.
"The acceleration in growth this quarter has been helped by a rapid growth in manufacturing which increased from 1.2 percent in the first quarter to 7 percent in the second quarter. Robust growth of 7.6 percent in electricity and other utilities, and 9.9 percent in trade, transportation and communications also powered this acceleration," the ministry said.
Overall, the services sector recorded a growth of 7.1 percent in the second quarter.
It stated the rate of growth of gross fixed capital formation has also increased from 1.6 percent in the first quarter to 4.7 percent in the second quarter. Real private consumption growth has broadly held steady at 6.5 percent.
"In summary, the economy now seems to have weathered the transitional challenges experienced earlier in the year and appears poised for a durable recovery going forward."
Replying to Modi's speech on Wednesday in which he compared his critics to Shalya, the demoralising character in the Mahabharata, Sinha said he was not sure who was being likened to him.
"I only want to say, if we are talking in terms of Mahabharata, I cannot watch in silence like Bhishmapitamah when Draupadi was subjected to 'cheerharan' (disrobed). I won't let the same happen (with economy)," the former Finance Minister told Aaj Tak TV.
Modi in his address to the Institute of Company Secretaries of India on Wednesday said his critics were suffering from "shalya vrutti" who "sleep well only after they spread a feeling of pessimism all around".
Sinha said Modi "doesn't listen" but "only speaks".
"When the Prime Minister speaks, nobody can question. He makes his speech, then there are cheers and it ends there."
He said he wanted to ask what the BJP would say about the promises Modi made before coming to power when the 2019 Lok Sabha election takes place.
"Nobody is going to ask us how our performance was as compared to UPA. The UPA is history. They will ask us about the promises we made. Have we fulfilled them?"
In another TV interview, Sinha said it was not important to know who was pessimist or optimist.
"Failure or success is not important. What is important is the issues being raised by me and by others must be tackled. The basic purpose of my raising these issues was to bring them to the notice of the government and encourage the government to be able to find a solution to the problems confronting the economy now," he said.
He said personal attacks won't work for the Prime Minister. He said nobody was judging the economy on the basis of one quarter.
"We are aware of the fact that it has been declining quarter after quarter... It has been 5 to 6 quarters now.. not just one."
Sinha said the GDP growth was 5.7 per cent in the last quater of the last financial year and he didn't speak up.
"When the same continued, the impression was that the slowdown is here to stay and we will take every effective steps in order to ensure that we get out of this slowdown.
"The purpose was to apprise the government of the situation that they were not aware, to sensitise them so that they move forward. The government goes to town, beating its drums at the slightest indication of progress. You can't have one yardstick for yourself and another for the other."
"From day one, this is a proactive government. We are analysing the economic indicators and appropriate action will be taken at right time. There is a problem of private investment. Government has seized the issue. Very soon you will hear from us," he said here while addressing the second "India Investor Summit" organised by New York based banking and financial services company J.P. Morgan.
Jaitley had chaired a high-level meeting on September 19 to review the economic situation and discuss measures. The meeting was attended by Railway Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian and Secretaries in the Finance Ministry -- Ashok Lavasa, Subhash Chandra Garg, Hasmukh Adhia, Rajiv Kumar and Neeraj Kumar Gupta.
The government is said to be considering a financial stimulus package following a sharp fall in latest key macro indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production as well as a widening current account deficit.
Pulled down by sluggish manufacturing, growth in the Indian economy in the first quarter of this fiscal fell to 5.7 per cent, clocking the lowest GDP growth rate since Narendra Modi took power in May 2014.
Asserting that corruption in the central government had become a thing of the past, Jaitley said that this is happening in states as well.
"India's confidence as a nation has increased tremendously in last few years," he said.
He said remonetisation following demonetisation last year has been successfully completed. "There is positive mood towards digitisation. As far as black money, benami transactions, etc. are concerned, it is no more safe in India to deal in excessive cash."
Speaking on bad loans of banks, he said, "Banks have done excessive lending in the past. Proposal of capital adequacy of the banks is also on the table."
On divestment, Jaitley said that the government had an ambitious target in the current fiscal.
"Even today, we have Air India divestment meeting. In the last few years, the market was quite volatile at times, so the government had to wait for the right time for divestment. As far as divestment is concerned, we never had any reservations about privatisation," he said.
Touching upon the issue of technical glitches under the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Finance Minister advised the traders to file their returns four to five days in advance before the due date to avoid last minute problems.
As far as bringing more items under the GST is concerned, he said that real estate would be the most easy to bring in.
Talking to reporters here, Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi also hit out at BJP National President Amit Shah.
He said Shah's efforts to place Prime Minister "Modi's economic integration" at the same pedestal as "Sardar Patel's political integration and Babasaheb Ambedkar's social integration was a contemptuous insult to our founding fathers and a pathetic attempt to paint black into white".
Singhvi said the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government has derailed the economy by its "disastrous decision making".
Demonetisation had hit the economy adversely and the Goods and Services Tax was rolled out in a "bad and hurried" manner, affecting many industries as also the manufacturing sector, he said.
Singhvi said the BJP suffers from "false bravado and loud boasting" and has shut its eyes to reality.
Amit Shah has attributed the plummeting of the gross domestic product (GDP) to "technical reasons" but for people the reason is "complete economic mismanagement", he said.
The Congress spokesperson said demonetisation, carried out in November last year, has shaved two per cent off the GDP and the government does not appear to have a clue to check the down-slide.
Stressing that job creation remains "the single biggest failure" of this government, he said 33,000 young people were entering the job market every day but the BJP government has been able to create only 500 jobs per day.
"A million new people entering the labour force every month. The labour bureau data shows that job creation is at the lowest in eight years," he said.
Singhvi said lack of jobs creates dissatisfaction and that, in turn, can create social tensions and added that the promise of creating two crore jobs per year remains "a distant illusion."
About farmers, he said they have been affected by the Modi government's "complete apathy". "They are not being provided with an appropriate rate for their produce, supply chains are being dismantled and suggestions under the Swaminathan Report are not being implemented."
"The much publicized Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana is benefiting enlisted private players at the expense of the hardworking farmers."
Singhvi said private investment was also not driving growth and the Gross Fixed Capital Formation was falling.
In 2013-14, he said, exports had risen to $314 billion registering a compound annual growth rate of 17.3 per cent. "In the last three years under the NDA government, exports have remained far below the peak -- $310 billion, $262 billion and $276 billion."
The Congress leader said Retail Inflation and Wholesale Price Index had risen, adversely affecting the domestic budgets and the high prices of petroleum products was also hitting the common man.
Singhvi said that despite rising costs in China, India has made little headway in becoming an alternative manufacturing destination, particularly at the low end that generates the most jobs.
"Textiles and clothing jobs from China are moving to Myanmar, Cambodia and Bangladesh, while Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are gaining in electronics production," he said.
Singhvi said ratings agency Crisil has estimated stressed assets in the banking system to be around Rs 11.5 lakh crore, or nearly 14 per cent of the total advances, and it does not expect this number to increase significantly over the medium term.
The Congress leader said Crisil expects gross non-performing assets in the banking system to be around 10.5 per cent of advances as of March 2018, up from 9.5 per cent as of March 2017.
Referring to a report of the State Level Banker's Committee (SLBC), he said rising bad loans in the medium, small and micro enterprises and agriculture have adversely affected the performance of banks in the state.
The quantum of bad loans registered in Gujarat has increased by 2.5 times, Singhvi said.
In its bi-annual economic India Development Update, the World Bank said the growth will accelerate to 7.2 per cent from 6.8 per cent in 2016-17.
"Economic activity ought to accelerate in FY18. GDP is projected to grow at 7.2 per cent from 6.8 per cent in FY17," it said in a report released here.
India's growth would increase gradually to 7.7 per cent by 2019-20, the report added.
Addressing the 52nd annual meeting of the African Development Bank here, Jaitley said while India has been a bright spot amongst the major economies amid challenging times, Africa too, has done well over the past few years.
"I stand here with conviction that the 21st century would not be Asia's alone but would belong to both Asia and Africa," he said.
Jaitley added that the African continent was transforming rapidly and amidst tough global scenario, its economy grew by 2.2 per cent in 2016 and was expected to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2017.
"Africa is approaching an exciting time. India and Africa should navigate through this journey together and shape their common future," Jaitley said.
He added that India was committed to Africa's development and this commitment was reflected in "continued high-level political engagement" including the three India-Africa Summits.
"It is no coincidence that our Prime Minister, President and Vice President have together visited 16 African countries in the past.
"There isn't a single African country which has not been visited by one of my cabinet colleagues," the Finance Minister added.
According to newly elected CII President Shobana Kamineni, key reforms such as the introduction and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) system will be a growth driver during the current fiscal.
Kamineni, also the Executive Vice-Chairperson of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (AHEL), said the growth rate band will also depend on normal monsoon and a slight improvement in the global economic environment.
With over 391 million users, India is already the second highest country in terms of mobile internet users.
According to the report titled 'The $250 Billion Digital Volcano: Dormant No More', the users are expected to grow rapidly to 650 million mobile internet users by 2020.
At the same time, data consumption by 2020 could potentially increase 10 to 14 times.
"Firstly, by 2020, 4G enabled devices are expected to grow six times to 550 million devices, constituting 70 per cent devices in use. Secondly, reliable high speed data is becoming both ubiquitous as well as mass affordable," said Nimisha Jain, a BCG partner and co-author of the report.
High-speed mobile internet adoption is set to reach 550 million users by 2020, almost 85 per cent of the total mobile internet users, the findings showed.
Average data consumption is projected to reach 7-10GB per user per month by 2020.
"Innovation is what leads to sustainability and sustainable growth in the current entrepreneurship ecosystem will enable India to chart its own success story," added Geetika Dayal, Executive Director, TiE Delhi-NCR.
Finance Ministers and central bank Governors from the G-20 group of leading economies, including the US, China, Mexico, Germany and India, held two days of tough talking in the German town of Baden-Baden.
The formal statement issued after the meeting on Saturday contained only a bland reference to "working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies", CNN reported.
Conspicuous by its absence was the phrase "we will resist all forms of protectionism" that was contained in the communique from the last meeting of the group in China in July 2016.
It also did not contain a pledge to finance efforts to combat climate change, Efe news said.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, however, downplayed the content of the statement.
"This is my first G20, so what was in the past communique is not necessarily relevant from my standpoint," Mnuchin said.
In a press conference afterward, he described the meeting as extremely productive and stressed that Trump's administration believed in free trade.
However, he added that it was good for the US as long as it was balanced.
He said the US, which since Trump took office has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and called for the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) to be renegotiated, was looking to enter into trade deals that are a "win-win" situation for the parties involved.
The Finance Minister of host Germany, Wolfgang Schauble, said for his part that the negotiations were very difficult but that a door had been left open for future talks.
He added that the final communique contained language that was not very concrete but which reflected the economies' shared commitment to fair trade, as demanded by the US, and rejection of currency manipulation.
Trump has accused two G20 members, China and Japan, of currency manipulation, while one of his top trade advisers has leveled the same complaint against Germany.
Given the opposition from the US and Saudi Arabia, the G20's communique also differed from its 2016 statement in that no reference was made to the members' readiness to finance the battle against climate change.
"With no major domestic triggers or events in the coming week, investors should continue to keep an eye on global events and fresh investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), as well as the movement of the rupee against the US dollar in the near term," Vijay Singhania, Founder and Director of brokerage firm Trade Smart Online, told IANS.
The Indian rupee strengthened by 1.15 paise in the week gone by to Rs. 65.46 against the US dollar.
Provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that the FIIs purchased stocks worth Rs 8,121.51 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) divested scrip worth Rs 2,192.86 crore in the last week.
Figures from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) showed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought equities worth Rs 7,495.85 crore, or $1.13 billion, during March 14-17.
Market observers cited that the tone for the week ahead will be set by the release of some major global macro-economic data.
"Key global macro-economic data in the coming week includes China's CB (Conference Board) Leading Economic Index for February 2017, scheduled to release on Tuesday. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will be out on the same day," Singhania said.
Apart from that, other global macro-data slated for next week include the US initial jobless claims for the week ended March 17, and the Eurozone Markit PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Composite data for March 2017.
Market experts opined that the markets may witness some profit- booking during the upcoming week.
"Indian equity markets are likely to trade with volatility due to profit booking at higher levels in the coming sessions. Sector-specific price movement can be seen in the markets next week," Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, told IANS.
On a similar note, Rakesh Tarway, Head of Research, Reliance Securities, asserted: "We continue to maintain a positive bias on markets, but there is a likelihood of some amount of consolidation at current levels after a sharp run up across indices."
On the technical levels, Deepak Jasani, Head - Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS: "The Nifty remains in an intermediate uptrend with no signs of reversal yet as it enters the thirteenth week of uptrend. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 9,214 is taken out."
"Weakness could emerge if the support of 9,060 is broken."
Riding on the outcome of the assembly elections and a strong rupee, the equity indices had zoomed to new 52-week highs and crossed their psychologically-significant levels during last week.
The benchmark NSE Nifty hit a record intra-day high of 9,218.40 points and closed above the 9,100-mark for the first time during the truncated week ended Friday. Similarly, the Sensex touched a new 52 week-high of 29,824.62 points.
The barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE surged by 702.76 points or 2.43 per cent to close at 29,648.99 points, while the NSE Nifty was up by 225.5 points or 2.52 per cent at 9,160.05 points.
The chamber said that lowering interest rates by 100 basis points could inject a huge growth impulse.
In a statement, the Confederation of Indian Industry pointed out that in many sectors, including automobiles, production and sales have rebounded after a temporary slowdown following introduction of the GST (Goods and Services Tax).
"CII is confident that positive developments in the global economy and upcoming festival season as well as government capital expenditure will contribute to growth.
"Capacity utilisation has been building up and businesses have begun to firm up their investment intentions for a period of time," it said.
It also observed that care must be taken that public capital expenditure, including by state governments, remains elevated.
Reforms in the area of ease of doing business will contribute to investments, including FDI, the chamber said, adding that these factors would help build growth forces.
GSMA is an association of mobile operators and related companies devoted to supporting the standardising, deployment and promotion of the GSM mobile telephone system.
The report also claims that the mobile industry contributed $1.1 trillion to the Asia Pacific economy in 2014, equivalent to 4.7 percent of the region's GDP and an increase of nearly $200 billion compared to the previous year, with over a quarter of this economic contribution generated directly by mobile operators.
"The Asia Pacific region features some of the world's most advanced mobile markets, as well as fast-growing emerging markets that are using mobile as a platform to deliver essential services such as education, healthcare and banking," said Anne Bouverot, director general of the GSMA.
"The report demonstrates how mobile is enabling digital inclusion and building digital societies across Asia, supporting a new era of innovation in areas such as digital commerce, the Internet of Things and mobile identity," he added.
It also states that Asia Pacific now accounts for half of the world's unique mobile subscribers and mobile connections and will continue to grow at a faster pace than the global average over the next five years, adding 600 million new unique subscribers by 2020.
According to the report, mobile operators directly contributed $286 billion to the total in 2014, equivalent to 1.2 percent of regional GDP and predicts that the Asia Pacific mobile industry will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2020, accounting for 5.9 percent of projected regional GDP by this point.
As per the report, in 2014 the mobile ecosystem directly and indirectly employed 12.5 million people in Asia Pacific, a figure expected to rise to 15 million by 2020.
"Asia Pacific has a unique opportunity to lead the global development of the mobile-powered digital society, putting mobile at the heart of a new digital ecosystem," said Bouverot.
"By implementing market conditions that encourage investment and innovation, the Asia Pacific region will be able to fully realise the positive transformative social and economic potential of mobile for the remainder of the decade and beyond," he added.
Also, the report said the industry makes a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector, with approximately $130 billion contributed in 2014 in the form of general taxation. This is set to grow to over $150 billion by 2020.
"During the first two years of the 12th Plan faulty policies of the Centre and general economic slow down have affected growth, but we hope to do better in the coming years," Patnaik told the Assembly while replying to the debate on the governor's address.
Consistent with state's development ambitions, Odisha's plan size was increased to Rs 21,467 crore in 2013-14 from Rs 2,484 crore in 1999-2000 and is likely to rise to Rs 27,000 crore in 2014-15, he said.
"Odisha recorded average annual growth of 8.23 per cent during 11th Plan," Patnaik said adding the real per capita income in Odisha at 2004-05 prices jumped from Rs 14,862 in 1999-2010 to Rs 26,900 in 2011-12, an increase of 77 per cent.
"Our State achieved the highest reduction in poverty among all states when the ratio dropped by 24.6 percentage points in a 6 year period from 2004-05," he said.
The Chief Minister said government will ensure that all sections and regions would get the benefit of development being witnessed in the state. Western Odisha Development Council is dedicated to development programmes under key sectors like roads, communication, agriculture, minor irrigation, lift irrigation, water supply, infrastructure for schools and colleges, health services and electrification of villages, he added.
Amidst opposition MLAs accusations that BJD government had failed on all fronts, Patnaik said it was proud of its accomplishments during the last 14 years.
He claimed that the government had persevered hard for social and economic development and most of the key projects whether in industrial, agricultural, health, education, infrastructure and information technology sectors have been put up on the fast track.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a reduced growth rate for India, but the country's economy is "still growing as the fastest", she told a group of Indian reporters on Thursday.
The minister is here to attend the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank.
Sitharaman said she is "certainly not risking a comparison" with China, even though the two countries growth rates have been projected at 6.1 per cent in a latest IMF report.
"The IMF (in its latest projections) reduces the growth (rate) for all the global economies. It reduces the growth for India too. But even otherwise, even with that India is still growing as the fastest growing economy," she said.
As against India's real growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2018, the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, projected the country's growth rate at 6.1 per cent for 2019 and noted that the Indian economy is expected to pick up at 7 per cent in 2020.
With all that being said, "the point cannot be missed that India is still "growing the fastest" in the given global scenario, Sitharaman observed.
"I wish it can be more. I wish it can grow faster. I'll make every effort to make it grow faster. But the fact remains that it is still growing faster.
"It's one of the fastest growing economies too. But that's not going to make me complacent," she said.
Observing that several things about the economy are sentiment driven, the Union finance minister said so obviously the narrative is "it's not growing as much as it used to grow earlier".
"It's not eight. It's not seven. I it's come down to six and so on. Yes, all these are very important. But I don't want to underestimate the potential that India is showing even in this adverse circumstance," Sitharaman said.
To a question, Sitharaman said at this stage she is "not looking at how long", but expecting if she is looking at green shoots.
She said at this stage, it is "my duty to hear every sector and respond as much as they would want us to respond from the government side".
"So, my business is now just to go on listening and making sure that the grievances or their demands are addressed, Sitharaman said.
"I'm not spending any time at this stage to analyze," she said.
When asked if the slowdown of Indian economy is cyclical or structural, Sitharaman said it may be both, may not be both, may be partly one or may be partly the other.
"I'm not getting into that at this stage. I don't have the luxury of sitting and looking at which way it is going," she said.
"On the contrary, I have all the time to know what people want me to do and (I) respond to them accordingly," Sitharaman said.
Asked if the government is still on track to maintain the fiscal deficit target to 3.3 per cent of the GDP, she said: "Fiscal deficit, I am not reviewing it now."
"At this stage, do not want to allow that to worry me. I'm more keen on getting to addressing the issues which industry wants me to address," Sitharaman said.
The Union finance minister said "you will get to know if there is any", when asked whether there is a move to lower personal income tax.
Strategically ahead of the tough negotiations for forming the next government in Maharashtra, the Sena launched a fresh missive at the BJP on sensitive points such as demonetisation, Goods & Services Tax and the overall slow-down plaguing the nation's economy.
"The 'dhoom-dhadaka' of fire-crackers are missing from this year's Diwali. Sales everywhere are down by 30-40 percent. "Itna Sannata Kyun Hain Bhai"? The country is facing an economic crisis... The condition of the Indian economy is worsening instead of improving," the Sena warned in strong edits in the party mouthpieces 'Saamana' and 'Dopahar Ka Saamana'.
"The 'Mai-Baap Sarkar' at the Centre says it will double farmers' incomes, but some or the other natural calamities keep hitting them in the form of drought or floods. Due to demonetization and GST, factories are threatened, industries and businesses are shutting, employment generation is badly affected with even the banks going bankrupt," said the Sena.
Painting a grim scenario, it said peoples' pockets have been "anyway empty", but now even the government coffers are being drained out, and because of the prevailing financial emergency-like situation, the government took out Rs 1.75 lakh Crore from the reserves of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
"Whatever may be the condition, people somehow manage to find ways and means to celebrate Diwali, but the same cannot be said of the country's financial sector in the grip of an economic crisis. Our markets are deserted, the festive glitter is not visible anywhere, but in the guise of online shopping, foreign companies are making money," the Sena said.
Speaking at the centenary event of industry chamber Assocham, Modi said that GDP growth in one of the quarters in previous government had plummeted to 3.5 per cent and other macro indicators were equally disappointing.
The Prime Minister said that he does not want to get into the debate as to why certain people remained silent then, adding that the economy would come out of the current slowdown.
"In previous governments also, in one quarter the GDP growth had fallen to 3.5 per cent. During that time, where did CPI headline inflation reach? You would recall, it had reached 9.4 per cent. Where was CPI core inflation? It was 7.3 per cent. What was WPI inflation? It had reached 5.2 per cent. To what level did fiscal deficit reach? It was 5.6 per cent of GDP," the PM said.
"At that time, many quarters had gone like that which was very disappointing from the economy point of view. I do not want to get into the debate as to why some people were silent then," he added.
India's GDP fell over six-year low in the July-September quarter of the current fiscal to 4.5 per cent, drawing flak from the opposition parties. Most high-frequency indicators such as core sector data, manufacturing growth and electricity generation have been discouraging.
Listing out achievements of his government over the past five years, Modi said a strong foundation has been laid and structural changes were made to ensure India becomes a $5 trillion economy. He said that his government did not only stop the economy from heading to disaster but also put it on the right track.
Further, several steps have been taken to make the banking system strong, robust and transparent. As a result, 13 banks have turned profitable after bleeding heavily due to bad loans.
The Prime Minister said that the government would spend Rs 100 lakh crore in building infrastructure while Rs 25 lakh crore to give a fillip to the rural economy. For "Har Jal Ghar", the government would spend Rs 3.5 lakh crore. Under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, two crore new houses would be built.
Modi noted that foreign direct investment (FDI) had grown consistently in the last five years. In fact, he gave two definitions of FDI. One that is its usual one and the other 'first develop India'.
He mentioned that India's Ease of Doing Business ranking has rapidly improved and now stands at 63rd position from 142 earlier.
Addressing the captains of the industry at Vigyan Bhawan in the national capital, Modi said that corporate tax was currently the lowest in the history of India and pointed out reforms in tax systems and Companies Act to make the regime industry-friendly and also competitive in the world.
He also called upon the industry to invest freely in the country, and don't worry about anything as no unjust action would be taken against companies. "Khul kar nivesh karein, paisa kharchein aur aage nivesh karein", he said.
He also told industry to strengthen wealth creation and job creation, the government is standing with them.
(IANS)
According to US-based private equity firm Blackstone, this year the Modi government is likely to continue business-friendly growth reforms, and the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6 per cent, while the markets could rise by up to 20 per cent.
Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien has teamed up with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle this year to deliver their list of 'Ten Surprises for 2020', This is the 35th year that Wien has given his views on the economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year.
Wien defines a "surprise" as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place, but which Wien believes is "probable", or having a better than 50 per cent likelihood of happening.
Wien predicts that US President Donald Trump might not be convicted or removed from office in 2020.
Both China and the US may keep their hands off Hong Kong in 2020 and will wait for the protests in the latter to settle down by itself, Wien predicted.
Emboldened by the pain of economic sanctions, Iran is likely to take advantage of the US' unwillingness to intervene and step up acts of hostility against Israel and Saudi Arabia.
According to the report, economic problems in Russia may intensify even though the price of oil is rising this year. As a result, social unrest likely to spread in that country.
In 2020, anarchy and disharmony likely to spread throughout the world, creating turbulence in financial markets everywhere. Investors may turn away from emerging market local currency debt, forcing spreads higher, Wien predicted.
North Korea may agree to suspend its nuclear development programme after another meeting with President Trump in 2020, the report said.
(IANS)
Taking to Twitter, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also said banking correspondents were active.
"All banks are ensuring that their branches are kept open, ATMs filled up & working. Banking correspondents are active. Social distancing is respected & sanitisers are provided where necessary. Just in case, any assistance/clarification is required contact A@DFSFightsCorona," she tweeted.
Also Read: COVID-19: Odisha CM Urges PM Modi To Grant Rs 380 Crore Unemployment Grant For MGNREGA Workers
On Saturday, the Finance Minister spoke to the chiefs and representatives of public and private sector banks and asked them to ensure uninterrupted banking operations and flow of liquidity.
She asked them to make sure there was adequate liquidity at the branches, ATMs and banking correspondent level. The CMDs were also asked to provide authorisation to bank staff and coordinate with the district administration for smooth travel of bank staff.
India Ratings and Research have revised its FY21 gross domestic product (GDP) growth for India down to 3.6% from 5.5%.
The key reasons for this downgrade are the spread of COVID-19 and the resultant nation-wide lockdown imposed till 14 April 2020, crippling most economic and commercial activities.
The revision is based on the assumption of lockdown continuing till end-April 2020 (full or partial) and gradual restoration of economic activities May 2020 onwards.
In view of the lockdown, India Ratings and Research have even revised the FY20 GDP forecast downward to 4.7% (9MFY20: 5.1%) from The National Statistical Office's advance estimate of 5.0%.
The rating agency expects the GDP growth to come in at 3.6% in 4QFY20 and 2.3% in 1QFY21. Average growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.8% in 1HFY21 (1HFY20: 5.3%) and recover to 4.3% in 2HFY21 (2HFY20: 4.2%), due to a) the base effect and b) a gradual recovery and restoration of supply chain, it said.
Some of the initial and visible impacts of the spread of COVID-19 on the Indian economy has been the disruption in the production of select manufacturing sectors due to the breakdown of supply chain, near collapse of the tourism, hospitality and aviation sectors and a rise in the workload of the healthcare sector. Also micro, small and medium enterprises, irrespective of the sector they operate in, have begun to witness cash flow disruptions. This is not to say that other sectors were not impacted or are not likely to be impacted. However, some the services sectors such as financial services, IT and IT-enabled services have greater flexibility in their operations and they quickly readjusted and/or are readjusting their operations by allowing employees to work from home.
Yet, the panic has gripped the Indian capital markets like elsewhere in the world. A changed outlook of investors has led to a huge outflow of capital and the rupee has come under intense pressure, India Ratings said. Also, significant wealth erosion would impact consumption levels.
With the rabi crop maturing, disruption in harvesting and inability of agricultural markets to timely procure them could be a blow to the farmers' income and rural demand.
A stop on the construction activities will accelerate the problems of the real estate sector which is still struggling to access funding in the middle of a meltdown in the NBFC and banking sectors.
After agriculture, construction is the largest employment generator in the Indian economy. Closure of non-essential commercial establishment and multiplexes will have a ripple effect on many sectors. Demand for consumer durables, entertainment, sports, wholesale trade, transport, tourism, hospitality etc. will decline, it said in its report.
Its is now expected, the agency said that several manufacturing activities will de-risk their operations by locating themselves outside China. Also, the disruption in supply chain, especially in sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics and chemical products, could be an incentive for the Indian manufacturing sector to become part of the supply chain.
India Ratings and Research believe this will require significant government and policy support and will play out only in the medium- to long-term. One of the near-term advantages of the spread of COVID-19 for the Indian economy would be lower global commodity prices especially crude oil. However, to what extent this could benefit the Indian economy would depend on the pace of restoration of normalcy and the ability and nimbleness of the Indian businesses to take advantage of this opportunity. However, converting this advantage to an opportunity would not easy, because the Indian economy is reeling under low consumption and low investment growth, coupled with rupture in the financial system, the report said.
India Ratings and Research expect the government to announce more measures in the coming days/weeks to mitigate the pains and concerns of the other segments/sectors of the society/economy, since the role of the government is crucial in terms of containing the spread of COVID-19 and simultaneously mitigating the adverse impact of the lockdown on the economy.
(With Agency Inputs)
Presently, the value of goods or software exports made by exporters is required to be realized fully and repatriated to the country within nine months from the date of export. The time period for exports made up to or on July 31, 2020, has been extended to 15 months from the date of export.
Also Read: India Fights Corona: RBI Announces EMI Breather, Injects Rs 3.7L Cr Liquidity
"The measure will enable the exporters to realise their receipts, especially from COVID-19 affected countries within the extended time period and also provide greater flexibility to them to negotiate future export contracts with buyers abroad," the RBI said in a statement.
The apex bank has also decided to increase ways and means advances (WMA) limit by 30 per cent for all States/UTs to enable these to tide over the situation arising from the coronavirus pandemic. The revised limits will come into force with effect from April 1, 2020, and will be valid till September 30, 2020.
The RBI had set up an Advisory Committee under the Chairmanship of Sudhir Shrivastava to review the Ways and Means limits for States/UTs. The decision to increase the limit has been taken even though its final recommendations are pending.
In yet another decision, the RBI has decided not to activate countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) for one year or earlier, as may be necessary. This would free banks from maintaining a capital buffer at a time when there is a need to boost investment climate in the economy by offering easy credit to the industry.
Also Read: Coronavirus Outbreak Effect: RBI Sets Up War-Room To Operate Monetary Works
The framework on CCyB was put in place by the RBI in terms of guidelines issued on February 5, 2015, wherein it was advised that the CCyB would be activated as and when the circumstances warranted and that the decision would normally be pre-announced. The framework envisages the credit-to-GDP gap as the main indicator, which is used in conjunction with other supplementary indicators.
(IANS)
Banerjee, while talking to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi through video-conferencing, suggested giving money into the hands of the bottom 60 per cent population to help revive demand.
He was deliberating on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic with Gandhi as part of a series of dialogues broadcast on Congress' social media handles.
Banerjee said it was important for India to announce a large enough stimulus package to deal with the crisis on the lines of what the US, Japan and Europe are doing.
"We really haven't decided on a large enough stimulus package. We are still talking about 1% of GDP. The United States has gone for 10% of GDP," the noted economist said.
"We have done one thing that I think is wise, which is to kind of put a moratorium on debt payments. We could do more than that. We could even say that the debt payments for this quarter will be cancelled and will be taken care of by the government," he said.
To Gandhi's question as to whether some form of the Congress-proposed NYAY scheme or direct cash transfer to people was the need of the hour, Benerjee answered in the affirmative saying it should not be limited just to the poorest.
"I would say the bottom 60% of the population, we give them some money, nothing bad will happen in my view. If we gave them money, well some of them might not need it. Fine, they'll spend it. If they spend it, it would have a stimulus effect," he said.
Banerjee also suggested that the government should hand out temporary ration cards to people to deal with the problem of food distribution.
He said another concern looking ahead post-COVID-19 and is a chain of bankruptcies. Maybe writing off a lot of debt is the way to go," he suggested. The other concern, the noted economist said, is the demand shortfall.
"Getting some cash into the hands of the population is the best way to kick start the economy," he said.
(IANS)
The gross domestic product (GDP) reached 24.93 trillion yuan (about USD 3.82 trillion) in Q1, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.
This is the highest quarterly growth rate since China first began publishing GDP data in 1993.
The double-digit growth puts the average Q1 growth of 2020 and 2021 at 5 per cent from the 2019 level, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.
In the first three months, China saw a steady industrial production rebound, improvement in market sales, recovery in fixed-asset investment, and noticeable momentum in foreign trade of goods, it said.
China’s economy, which was the first to be hit by the coronavirus pandemic when it broke out in central China’s Wuhan city in late 2019, and early to recover from its impact, grew 2.3 per cent in 2020, registering the lowest annual growth rate in 45 years.
The GDP of the world’s second-largest economy grew by 2.3 per cent expanding to USD 15.42 trillion in 2020, according to the data released by the NBS said.
In the local currency, the GDP exceeded the 100 trillion yuan (USD 15.42 trillion) threshold to 101.5986 trillion yuan.
Early this month, the IMF increased China’s GDP projection to 8.4 per cent for this year, a 10-year high but cautioned that the growth is unbalanced and private consumption has not recovered as fast.
The IMF projection is higher than the over six per cent target fixed by the Chinese government for this year.
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF also cautioned Beijing to address its high corporate debt levels resulting from the easy monetary policy put in place during the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s still very heavily reliant on public investment. And private consumption has not recovered as fast as we would have hoped, Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist and director of research, said while releasing the report.
China-US tensions that remain elevated on multiple fronts, ranging from international trade to intellectual property and cybersecurity, also got a mention in the report.
“Domestic economic disparities arising from the pandemic downturn may also prompt new trade barriers Amid already high levels of trade restrictions, such actions would add to inefficiencies and weigh on the recovery. Furthermore, risks of protectionist tendencies surrounding technology are emerging,” the IMF report said.
The IMF has also advised China to further address its high corporate debt levels that have resulted from the easy monetary policy put in place during the coronavirus pandemic.
Releasing the Q1 data on Friday, NBS spokeswoman Liu Aihua said the economic recovery in the first quarter of this year continued, and positive factors are accumulating .
At the same time, we must also see that the COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading globally, the international landscape is complicated and severe, the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid, and some service industries and small and micro enterprises are still facing more difficulties in their production and operation, Liu was quoted by the Hong Kong-based The South China Morning Post as saying.
Tian Yun, vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times tabloid that the role of a sharp increase in overseas orders in shoring up China’s industrial production acceleration in the first three months.
“The global economy seems to be walking out of the pandemic-induced recession, which will boost foreign demands for Chinese merchandises till at least June. This stays in contrast to last year when the recovery of the supply side outpaced that of the demand side,” he said.
According to the Q1 data, China’s value-added industrial output, an important economic indicator, went up 24.5 per cent year on year in the first quarter this year as factory activities continued to pick up.
Output by major industrial firms increased by 14 per cent compared with the first quarter in 2019, resulting in an average year-on-year Q1 growth of 6.8 per cent over the past two years, the Xinhua report said.
It also said China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.3 per cent in March, 0.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
A total of 2.97 million new urban jobs were created in the first quarter, the NBS said.
China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) went up 25.6 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2021, the NBS said.
The FAI amounted to 9.6 trillion yuan (about 1.47 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first three months, according to the NBS.
The double-digit growth was driven by a low base of comparison early last year when COVID-19 paralysed economic activities in China. Compared with the 2019 level, FAI growth came in at 6 per cent.
Investment by the state sector went up 25.3 per cent during the January-March period, while private-sector investment rose 26 per cent.
This was the first meeting of the FSDC, which comprises RBI Governor and other financial sector regulators, since the coronavirus outbreak.
The 22nd meeting of the FSDC, which was held via video conferencing, assumes a greater significance considering that the economy is expected to contract by 5 per cent by some estimates amid the virus crisis.
Various measures to maintain financial stability in the context of COVID-19 have been reviewed, an official said after the meeting.
The meeting also took note of the activities undertaken by the FSDC Sub-Committee chaired by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and the initiatives taken by the various regulators in the financial sector.
The FSDC is the apex body of sectoral regulators, headed by the finance minister.
Besides the RBI governor, SEBI chief Ajay Tyagi, IRDAI chairman Subhash Chandra Khuntia, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) chairman M S Sahoo and PFRDAI chairman Supratim Bandyopadhyay were present in the meeting.
Economic Affairs Secretary Tarun Bajaj, Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey, Financial Services Secretary Debasish Panda and other top officials of the finance ministry also attended the meeting.
This was the third meeting of the FSDC after the Narendra Modi government returned for the second term in May last year.
The RBI last week said the impact of COVID-19 is more severe than anticipated and the GDP growth during the current financial year is likely to remain in the negative territory. It projected some pick-up in growth impulses from the second half (October-March) of 2020-21 onwards.
On Tuesday, rating agencies Fitch and Crisil drastically cut India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year due to a prolonged lockdown.
Fitch forecast 5 per cent contraction in 2020-21, a sharp decline from 0.8 per cent growth projected by the global rating agency in late April.
Crisil also predicted the economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal. Earlier, it projected a growth of 1.8 per cent.
Earlier this month, the government announced about Rs 21 lakh crore stimulus package to help the nation tide over the economic crisis induced by the coronavirus and the lockdown to curb its spread.
The mega economic package includes the Reserve Bank's Rs 8.01 lakh crore worth of liquidity measures.
Sitharaman had announced this economic package in five tranches, which included a Rs 3.70 lakh crore support for MSMEs, Rs 75,000 crore for NBFCs and Rs 90,000 crore for power distribution companies.
Besides, free foodgrains to migrant workers, increased allocation for Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), tax relief to certain sections and Rs 15,000 crore allocation to the healthcare sector to deal with the pandemic, were also announced as part of the economic package.
(PTI)
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The telecom and information technology will be key to survival and revival of lives and economy, said the business leaders as they shared their views on challenges faced by the Indian economy at a webinar organised by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Delhi.
"Covid-19 has resulted in the world adapting to the ‘new normal' by accelerating the business transition towards digital practices. IT as the backbone of the economy responded immediately to this crisis as the industry was prepared and working towards digitalisation," said Sujit Baksi, Head- APAC Business & President, Corporate Affairs at Tech Mahindra.
"Today around 93-94 per cent of our workforce is working from home. We see this as an opportunity for our industry to change the way of working and enhanced engagement with the telecom sector, which has emerged as a lifeline, yet again. I am confident that the IT industry will bounce back in the second half of the financial year," Baksi told the webinar on "New Normal: Impact of COVID on Business and Economy".
According to Prativa Mohapatra, VP Sales at IBM India/South Asia, as the new normal sets in, leadership, decisiveness, empathy and teamwork will become more essential.
"The telecom industry has emerged as the nervous system and IT as flesh and blood in the current pandemic," she said.
Rajan Mathews, Director General, Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), the challenges also presents the telecom industry the opportunity to innovate and create critical solutions indigenously which can be globally scalable.
"Our industry faces an unprecedented financial crisis and at the same time we require investments in our infrastructure so that we can be future-ready to take up emerging challenges," he said.
According to Prashant Solomon, Managing Director, Chintels India Pvt. Ltd and Treasurer, Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (CREDAI) NCR, the lockdown have greatly impacted the real estate sector which is the second-largest employer in India.
"Operational resilience along with strong government initiatives, like increased liquidity and one-time restructuring of loans, are necessary to help the sector recover. CREDAI recently specified these requirements in an open letter to the PM and we are looking forward to further support," Solomon said.
"We are entering in an economic contraction of 5 to 15 per cent depending on the industry and this economic crisis is unique for India as we have not experienced something like this in decades," said Aditya Berlia, Chairman- CII Delhi, Co-Promoter Apeejay Stya and Svran Group.
"CII has immediately responded and is helping during the crisis but we know more can be done and will be done. The steps taken by the government are fantastic for the medium-term but what we require is something which can help businesses next week, not in six months.
"We believe that in the next six months of this year Covid-19 economic issues will begin to be resolved, and then we will see things moving up," Berlia said.
(IANS)
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The apex planning body of the State government held a meeting at the Lok Seva Bhawan on Tuesday which was chaired by its deputy chairman Sanjay Das Burma.
The board members discussed various issues to strengthen the economy in the State. While revival plans are being prepared for empowerment of migrant workers, agriculture and water resources department, the board stressed for an integrated ameliorative plan for all sectors.
Officials of all departments have been asked to submit their proposals within seven days. Besides, the State planning board stressed on creation of more working days in order to generate more employment opportunities in local areas.
Once the officials submit the proposals, the board will ask Nabakrushna Choudhury Centre for Development Studies which has been functioning as the nodal agency, to prepare a report. Subsequently, the findings will be submitted to Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.
“We will consult the experts who are handling the State’s policies and prepare report accordingly to ensure smooth revival of economy and control the situation responsibly,” Das Burma said after the meeting.
Among others, Development Commissioner Suresh Chandra Mahapatra, secretaries of concerned departments and other officials were present in the meeting.
(Edited by Suryakant Jena)
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"The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at (-) 3.21 per cent (provisional) for May 2020 as compared to 2.79 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
Inflation in food articles during May stood at 1.13 per cent, as against 2.55 per cent in April. In fuel and power basket, deflation stood at 19.83 per cent in May, as against 10.12 per cent in the previous month.
Manufactured products witnessed deflation of 0.42 per cent in May.
Due to the nationwide lockdown imposed since March 25, the ministry had released truncated WPI inflation data for April, with figures of food, primary articles and fuel and power.
However, it has advised its field offices to collect price data through electronic means and the final index for the month would be released next month.
"Price data is collected from selected institutional sources and industrial establishments spread across the country online through web-based portal maintained by the National Informatics Centre (NIC)," the ministry said.
The final print of March WPI inflation stood at 0.42 per cent as compared to its provisional levels of 1 per cent reported on April 14, 2020, the ministry said.
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India’s Economic Revival May Take 6 Months, Say Business Leaders
Apart from the migrant workers and other poor sections of the society, the middle and lower-middle-class seem to be shrinking as the world battles the biggest health scare in a century.
While people belonging to high-income group seems least bothered about the lockdowns, the government is rolling out a series of schemes for the betterment of the weaker sections of the society.
However, with no steady income and government’s assistance, the middle and lower-middle people are feeling the pinch.
It has been four months, since the stratum has been dealing with the lockdowns and shutdowns across Odisha bringing income of many to a grinding halt.
Siba Behera of Cuttack’s Badambadi, who runs a family of five including three daughters, depends on what he earns from his small shoe shop. But, with the lockdown coming into force, he has not opened his shops for the last four months and is not able to meet his family expenses. Adding salt to injuries, he is unable to even recharge his mobile phone for her daughter’s online classes.
“I have spent all my savings. With three daughters and no income, it is becoming difficult to survive. I have not paid the electric bill and insurance premium for the last six months,” said Siba.
Similarly, people working with various privately-owned companies are having sleepless nights due to salary cuts and irregular pay.
Sabyasachi Mohanty of Mahadevnagar in Bhubaneswar works with an insurance company. Due to salary cuts, he is failing to meet EMI, education fees of children, loan EMIs, medical expenses of ailing parents and household expenses.
Worried about the reduced salary Sabyasachi said, “No one had ever imagined of such tough times. All my financial planning tumbled down due to the pandemic. With no fixed income, my survival is becoming difficult.”
Likewise, trade and business are also witnessing a downward trend amid the pandemic. Though garment shops are opening on weekdays, most of them are wearing deserted look with people staying back indoors fearing the virus.
Ajay Guha, who runs a garment shop in Balasore said, “The business has come to a standstill due to the virus. With the lockdown in force, we are failing to get fresh stock to meet the demands of customers.”
With no jobs, Nityabrata Das, who used to work as a teacher at a private school in Balasore, is now forced to work at a medicine shop for survival.
“There is no vacancy anywhere. In fact, many organisations want their staff to resign as they are failing to pay them,” said Das.
(Edited By Pradeep Singh)
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As per a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, "Real GDP declined 7.5 per cent YoY in 2QFY21 (or 3QCY20), worse than our expectation, but better than the market consensus".
Fiscal spending, consumption plus investments, posted its first major contraction since FY15 and is the worst on record. On the contrary, decline in private spending narrowed to -9.2 per cent in 2QFY21 from -35.4 per cent YoY in 1Q. The government and private sectors are naturally highly interlinked with each other, the report said.
A comparison of India with other major nations suggests India is no longer the worst affected economy -- as the Philippines' real GDP saw double-digit decline in 3QCY20 and decline was also higher in the UK and Mexico.
Due to a weaker-than-expected 2QFY21, we revise down our 3QFY21 and 4QFY21 growth forecasts.
"We now pencil in a decline of 1.2 per cent YoY in 3QFY21 (v/s a negligible decline earlier) and growth of 2.3 per cent YoY in 4QFY21 (v/s +4.2 per cent projected earlier). Accordingly, India's real GDP is forecast to decline 7.5 per cent YoY in FY21 (v/s the previous forecast of -6.5 per cent ), but grow 8.5 per cent in FY22 (against 7.8 per cent growth expected earlier). This implies average growth of only 0.3 per cent in the two years," the report said.
(IANS)
In a move to enhance capital investment for revival of the economy and generation of livelihood for the people, and facilitate higher public spending within the resources, the government has now decided to relax some expenditure rationalization measures adopted by the Finance department in July 7, 2020.
Reportedly, the government had completely banned the purchase of new equipment except medical equipment and equipment required for internal security. However, as per the latest order of the Finance department, equipment required for promoting digital communication can be procured within the delegated financial power without reference to Finance department.
“The Government has been successful in minimizing the impact of the COVID-19 on the state economy as well as realization of resources. After initial shortfall in resources in the early part of the financial year following enforcement of lockdown and shutdown, the resources are now looking up due to partial recovery in the State economy, and some innovation in mobilization of resources and consistent monitoring,” stated Odisha Finance Secretary Ashok Meena in a letter to all the departments.
There shall be complete ban on sanction and drawl of new Long-term Advances (HBA, Motor Car Advance, Computer advance etc.) and other advances. However, if a part of the HBA out of the total sanctioned amount is drawn, the balance will be allowed to be drawn.
The ban on sanction and drawl of new Long-term Advances (HBA, Motor Car Advance, Computer advance, etc.) and other advances have now been relaxed and allowed. The government had however made sure in its previous order that if a part of the HBA out of the total sanctioned amount is drawn, the balance will be allowed to be drawn.
This apart, the Finance Secretary has mentioned that capping on expenditure out of the provision ‘Other Contingencies’ will be relaxed from 60 per cent to 75 per cent of the budget provision for the whole year. Notably, keeping the expenditure to the minimum level, the government had then said that only expenditure relating to Covid management and other essential expenditure like purchase of office stationeries may be incurred and had restricted purchase of office furniture, fixtures and furnishing.
As far as austerity in the implementation of schemes is concerned, the finance department has clarified that capping on expenditure out of the provision ‘Operation and Maintenance expenditure’ will be relaxed from 60 per cent to 75 per cent of the budget provision for the whole year and further relaxation shall be considered on availability of resources in January 2020.
Moreover, new tenders for execution of works for the ongoing schemes, procurement of goods and services may be floated keeping in view the budget provision without reference to the finance department. The execution and financial power will be guided as per the codal provisions of OPWD, OGFR, DFPR and forest code as applicable, Meena stated in the letter.
READ | Odisha Cabinet Approves Supplementary Budget Of Rs 11,200 Crore; Nod To 18 Proposals
I foresee an emergence of community issues in some areas. Till now, barring health and agriculture, Odisha has seldom faced real community issues. Industrial and mining hubs in Jajpur, Paradip, Angul, Jharsuguda, Rayagada would enhance the income of the marginalised communities, and an unskilled labour will be getting 12,000 or more per month. The assumption here is that local people get a chance to work in the industries in their own geography. Politics of these areas and the neighbouring constituencies will revolve around agendas like a) employment b) community-industry negotiations c) the collectorate-industry-MLA/MP understanding of government schemes and making them appropriately targeted d) sustenance of basic rural economy and e) control of crimes.
With the rapidly growing industrialisation, land would be freed from historical agriculture and would be offered by even small and marginal farmers for real estate development. Purchasing power would surge like never before. The politics would be focused on ‘business facilitation’. The state would do its best to help business prosper. Amidst this, only a leader who can bring in the balance between business and socialism would emerge popular or “statesman/woman like”.
The CV of a politician would look very different. S/he need not be a trade union leader, a student leader, a mass leader but if he has the support of business, the youth (majority of voters) will accept him or her. Distinct activism would be in the last leg and would gradually metamorphose into accommodative discordance. The process has already started since sometime now. Bhubaneswar is teeming with people more professional in getting projects cleared than asking questions about the impact of the projects. That is because the civil society is enjoying a slumber and they would continue with deeper sleep because, in the end, everyone including the communities want the jobs to be done. The leader would be able to pick ‘doers’ from the communities who would escort business to successful completion.
The survival of politics or politicians in Odisha would majorly depend on the survival of business, mostly extraction. Bhubaneswar would turn more into a guest house for the mineral-rich from Jajpur, Paradip, Angul, Jharsuguda, Rayagada. One-third of the state would be (more than 80 out of 147 constituencies) hungry for savvy, pro-business, rich representatives to be elected. The youth cadres or their handlers would toe their line and hence money would play the central role in the polity. Odisha could be the classic example of woke capitalism driving policies and culture and enjoying ‘ruling’ prominence than mere financial power. How mineral-based rental economy changed everything, from the culture to the politics of a state which not long ago was a ‘poor state’ for aid agencies and henceforth would be an ‘emerging state’ for trade agencies? Déjà vu. Business has always prevailed, even before the extraction spurt. By 2025, business will be an institutionalised and formalised stakeholder in governance. When business would dabble in governance, politics would naturally do business. By 2024, about 40% more businessmen would be in active politics and seek elections in Odisha. The term career politician would gradually lose relevance.
By 2025, there would hardly be any regional leaders (different regions of Odisha) worth the pull or influence. There were a few leaders who after their stints at Bhubaneswar, the centre, made their region or constituencies their mainstay. But now and in the coming years, the “constituency touch” of the leaders would no more be required. They are living off the party, its symbol and its chief leader. The MLAs would more and more get into a system where they are not expected to think or lead. They would be asked to do as directed by the chief or the party. The odd ones who would dissent would be shown the way or made backbenchers. Politics would be less issue-based. It would be party or central decision driven. In a way politics would be like the civil administration –a person or a caucus decides, and all the rest are to implement. It is a welcome change because in all these decades the MLAs failed to emerge as leaders and played ball happily to central whips. Communities feel much safer with the Chief than with the lackeys. At least there is a centrality in planning and development drives. People get benefits from welfare measures. They would continue to get doles because in the next half a decade, the largesse of public schemes would subsidise the CSR of the private sector. This will be due to the impact of “woke capitalism”. The social development work in villages would be controlled by CSR but funded by public schemes. Public Private Partnerships (PPP) as a concept will turn on its head.
The manifestos would no longer speak of social development. They would shout about business development. Social development will phase out when the HDIs would be reasonably stabilised. Like Maslow’s pyramid, after the basics, the communities would look for self-actualisation. This would manifest in increased income, easy income, more material comforts, flatter social hierarchies, more condominiums in tier 2 and 3 towns, lifestyle changes, reduced farming and above all emergence of leadership from least expected quarters. Everyone would get a chance to negotiate. Politics in a business-centric environment would encourage this trait which was earlier under the grip of a few dynasts or chieftains. By 2025, I foresee a lot of new faces to take charge.
In this scheme of things, the Generation Z— born between 1995 and 2012—would have to find a space for themselves. Everywhere they are redefining political movements, religion, popular culture, social distancing and more. But if they leave Odisha for studies or jobs, they leave behind two generations (one younger and one older) who would not have the capacity to respond to the changes around them or react and suggest. The millennials are Odisha’s first generation of digital natives and the oldest of its members would be about 30 then. They will be more engaged in opinionizing through social media which would be much more expansive in the next five years or so. The Odia collectives, groups in different cities of India would also become active but mostly as voices and not much of action. Because Odia diaspora would require to be strongly cohesive and action oriented then.
There will be less dwelling in the past and more blinking in the present, then. The political narrative would be designed more on business and less on culture and heritage. This shift would take about 4-5 years to sink into the Odia psyche. Once complete, the government would be the only source to keep the culture alive. I don’t foresee much PPP in the culture arena. With the change in narratives, the style of campaigning and the messages would be different. More than half of the population would be reached through social media, which might spawn fake and deep fake social media misinformation campaigns. This will be a new war fought on new grounds which is far away from the real ground. Politics in Odisha would drift away from ground issues. This is a trend and would have its own pros and cons. Values of the middle class will turn to unbridled aspirations. The per capita income of Odisha has grown by about 115 per cent in the last 8 years. It has added more than 15% to the middle-class band.
Like someone said quite easily that “I don't set trends. I just find out what they are and exploit them.” This will be the mood of Odisha politics.
To be continued….
(DISCLAIMER: This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own and have nothing to do with OTV’s charter or views. OTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.)
(Charudutta Panigrahi is a polymath. Author, community worker, TED speaker, public intellectual & policy influencer. He can be reached at charu.panigrahi@gmail.com)
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