Will Monsoon 2019 make a historic withdrawal from Odisha in November?

Monsoon is predicted to withdraw from Rajasthan around October 14. The Indian Summer Monsoon takes nearly 15-30 days to sign out from Odisha, post pulling out its footprint from Rajasthan

Bhubaneswar: Will the Monsoon sets its withdrawal date from Odisha in November this year? The weather history, however, is evident that Odisha had never seen withdrawal of monsoon in the month of November.

Why such a scenario seems plausible this year is the Monsoon 2019  is taking its own time to coil back from the north-west of India (Rajasthan). Generally,  the Indian Summer Monsoon takes nearly 15-30 days to sign out from Odisha, post pulling out its footprint from Rajasthan.

As per the data available with IMD, the shortest span of 15-days it took to sign out from Odisha had been in 2008. Though the withdrawal from Rajasthan started as late as on September 29, the withdrawal date from Odisha was on October 13. And the most delayed withdrawal span of more than 30 days happened in 2010, when the monsoon withdrew from Odisha on October 26-28.

An analysis of Monsoon withdrawal over the years (1958 -2018) reveals that the normal withdrawal date of monsoon from Odisha have been around Oct 15-16, except for the years of 1973, 1975, and 2010, when the withdrawal from Odisha commenced in the last week of October.

Also, in the years like 1982, 1984 and 1994,  Monsoon pulled out its footprints from Odisha in September last week.

It needs mentioning here is IMD declares withdrawal of Monsoon taking into account the synoptic features like formation of anticyclone at a height of 850 mb (air pressure) from the sea surface level and considerable reduction in moisture content.

An analysis of 500mb heights Spaghetti maps suggest prevailing of warmer temperature in Rajasthan till November 6. However, likely development of an anticyclonic  circulation in lower troposphere seems a possibility by around October 10. Therefore, IMD has recently predicted that withdrawal this year will commence around October 14.

In the given context, as per the usual trend, the withdrawal date from Odisha would then be around October 29.

But the complexity in Odisha’s case is development of any upper air cyclonic circulation  in Bay of Bengal during October 14 – 29 could then thwart the withdrawal. In such a scenario, the withdrawal could see extension to November.