State likely to receive normal monsoon rains: MeT

India Meteorological Department today forecast normal monsoon season this year with the country likely to receive 98 per cent rains of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The LPA is the average rainfall over the past 50 years, which is 89 cm.

“Monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal. There is very low probability for the seasonal rains to be deficient,” Earth Sciences Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal told reporters.

Quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five per cent.

IMD considers rainfall within 96 per cent to 104 per cent of LPA as normal monsoon season.

This year, weathermen expect that Odisha would receive normal rainfall. Last year, the state had 15 per cent less rainfall below normal.

A good monsoon would bring respite to the rain-hit farmers in the state as their crops were destroyed in the untimely rains last year. Many farmer suicide cases were reported in the state. Besides, normal monsoon would cool off inflation.

The prices of essential goods sky-rocketed in the past due to crop loss in major states like—Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh.

The third largest economy in Asia has been battling with soaring inflation due to low farm output.

If everything goes in line with MeT forecasts, the agricultural output is expected to meet the expectations. Any deviation in this is likely to push the government to increase imports which would have negative impact on inflation.

As per IMD, the department will update the above forecast in June as a part of the second stage forecast. During that time, state-wise breakup would be announced.