Odisha keeping fingers crossed, US agency predicts cyclone to drift away from coasts!

Almost all lead weather agencies across the globe are unanimous about the system progressing into a tropical cyclone. But while ECMRWF and INCOIS predict it hitting Odisha, GFS says no

Bhubaneswar: With IMD and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (US Navy) today confirming the formation of Low Pressure Area over north Andaman seas, the spectre of cyclone looms large in Bay of Bengal (BoB). And Fani-struck Odisha keeps its fingers crossed.

While IMD’s latest bulletin has been quite conservative as it only has predicted the system developing into depression by November 7 and its further intensification later, the US Navy has gone a step further and predicted that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone in next 96 hours (around November 8), when system’s wind velocity will touch 35 knots or 65 km/hour. The high Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of 29-30 deg Celsius will aid the systems’ intensification, says JTWC’s latest summary.

World’s lead weather agencies like US based Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) have also categorically predicted that BoB is going to churn another cyclone after extremely severe cyclone Fani that hit Odisha coasts in May this year.

Even, the premier ocean research agency of India, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), under ministry of Earth Sciences, has also made a forecast about the system developing into a tropical cyclone by November 9.

The moot point then is whether the cyclonic system will have any impact on Odisha? And it is where, lead weather agencies present a discordant view.

For Odisha, the good news is US-based GFS model shows the system after racing towards Odisha coasts till November 9, will then deflect towards east by November 10-11. And if the prediction proves true, then Odisha will receive only heavy rains and no cyclone blues.

However, predictions by two other lead agencies like ECMRWF and INCOIS are news of discomfort for Odisha. Both the lead agencies predict the system to hit Odisha.

And both are unanimous on the day of strike on Odisha. They say the tropical cyclone to hit Odisha’s northern coasts by November 10-11.