Neutral El Nino, Positive IOD may spare Odisha from blistering Summer!

Last week of Feb will see chequered weather with rain and fog. But big forecast is about near normal Summer temperature by eminent climate institute International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRICS)

Bhubaneswar: With as many as 23 districts in Odisha having recorded a day temperature of 30-33 degrees Celsius on Sunday, how will the day temperature pan out in coming months of March, April and May in Odisha?

Historically seen, the months of April and May turned Odisha into a heat island consecutively for the years 2017, 2018 and 2019. What the year 2020 holds?

A glance at the forecast issued recently by an eminent climate institute International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRICS) reveals big.

As per a IRICS statement, the SST forecast shows borderline weak El Nino conditions, with Nino3.4 SST near 0.5ºC for January and early February, but the SST is expected to slowly return to neutral between February and the early summer.

The neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may favour near normal temperature in India, including Odisha, for the period of May – July.

The IRI prediction has also made a forecast that the conditions will also favour above-normal precipitation in Southern India, including parts of Odisha, for the period of April – June.

Significantly, if the forecast is to believed than blistering heat may spare Odisha this summer.

Meanwhile, as per the IMD forecast today, thunderstorm accompanied with lightning very likely over Odisha during February 24th & 25th. It said such weather condition will prevail in Odisha  owing to very likely intensification of the confluence zone and its further movement to eastwards during 23rd to 25th Feb.

Which confluence zone? IMD observes a confluence zone between middle latitude westerlies and lower level easterlies from Bay of Bengal that runs from northeast Konkan to northeast Bihar across north Madhya Pradesh and southeast Uttar Pradesh at the lower levels.

Since the confluence zone will develop at the lower level, it will induce copious rainfall and thunderstorm accompanied with lightning in north interior Odisha , Cuttack, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Sonepur, Boudh, and Nayagarh. And heavy rainfall very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Sambalpur and Deogarh.

The IMD forecast for Tuesday is heavy rain may lash one or two places in districts of Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara and Jajpur; whereas thunder storm with lightning may occur at one or two places over the districts of Coastal Odisha, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal and Boudh.

However, if IMD is to be believed, the month of February will end up with foggy weather in Odisha.  The prediction shows dense fog may envelope one or two places over the districts of Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur ,Deogarh and Keonjhargarh on Wednesday and extends so to over the districts of Coastal Odisha on Thursday.