Mid- September peril: New LOPAR in Bay of Bengal on Sept 16!

Exactly a year ago, around 19th September, a LOPAR went on to develop into severe cyclone Daye that had hit south Odisha in a big way

Bhubaneswar: With another low pressure area likely over the northwest Bay of Bengal , near Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coast, on and around 16th September, Odisha will experience above normal rainfall activity till the next Tuesday (September 18).

The weather models of the Met forecasting agencies like IMD, INCOIS and US-based Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) predict formation of a Low Pressure Area (LOPAR) over the northwest Bay of Bengal by early next week (16th September). For this system, the State will record above normal rainfall till Tuesday next.

Though the relative vorticity (spinning of air) around the system is predicted high, it is too early to predict the system developing into a depression. However, since mid September tends to have an unstable atmospheric condition, met watchers are keeping a close watch on the developing system.

Significantly, last year a depression was formed on September 19 and went on to develop into a severe cyclonic storm Daye that made landfall in south Odisha on September 21.

As per the US-based CPC prediction, almost all the south interior and coastal districts, in the State will be witnessing very heavy rainfall in the range of 70-80 mm in the week ending on September 22. However, the rest of the State will experience rainfall in the range of 20-40 mm.

However, the rainfall data till today with the IMD reveals the State has received around 1,057 mm rainfall, which is 5 per cent more than the average normal rainfall recorded during the period of June-September 9 over the years. It is only two districts, Balasore and Deogarh, that have recorded deficient rainfall during this monsoon till date. The deficit in Balasore has increased in September.

In contrast, the districts of Koraput, Malkangiri, Jharsuguda and Puri have  recorded excess rainfall to the extent of 44 – 21 per cent.