Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: When the novel Coronavirus, displaying no 'Karuna' is on infection spree globally, including India, here comes the COVID-19's big  - somewhat positive- impact on the harassed common man on streets.

The rate of inflation in the country is predicted to drop to mere 2 per cent by December 2020. From vegetables to eggs, fish and meat, all these food commodities in India will be within the reach of the Aam Admi.  

While the indication of easing inflation in the country was popped up by the recently released consumer price index (CPI) for the month of February 2020, the SBI research  predict a downturn phase in the realm of price rise in the country in coming months.

As per the CPI data for Feb 2020, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply to 6.58 per cent in Feb 2020 from a 68-month high of 7.59 per cent in Jan 2020.

In the case of Odisha, the rate of inflation has fallen to 8.2 per cent in February from a nation-high of 9.72 per cent in January 2020. Odisha is now having the second highest inflation rate in country after Telangana.

However, the big story is, as per SBI research study team led by Chief Economic Advisor Dr Soumyakanti Ghosh, the CPI will drop to 6 per cent in March 2020 and the fall will continue to touch the lowest of 2 per cent in December 2020. The SBI prediction is the rate of inflation in the country will post a rise only from January 2021.

The study has attributed the predicted fall to heavy drop in prices of meat, eggs and fish thanks to COVID-19 impact. Another major factor behind the predicted plunge in the price chart, the study attributed to, will be drop in prices of vegetables (mainly onion and potato) over the period courtesy a good production in the country.

The near collapse in crude prices thanks to COVID-19 will also play a role of decelerator in the inflation chart.

The SBI analysis shows LPG prices have contributed 0.21 per cent points to the 68-month high inflation in January 2020. It says fuel inflation in February increased by 270 basis points, largely due to increase in LPG prices.  The fuel inflation posted a massive rise to touch 6.36 per cent in February vis-a-vis 3.66 per cent in January 2020.

However, all commodities are not going to follow the Newton's law of gravity. The SBI research study has predicted a rise in prices of milk and pulses in the months to come.

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