Bhubaneswar: Unlike the first Covid-19 wave, the clusters in the second wave have been the colleges in Odisha. Till date no sporadic cases of Covid-19 positives have been reported from the schools in the State, though only a single confirmed positive case has been today reported at the Kendriya Vidyalaya in Bhubaneswar.
SAMPLE THE FOLLOWING
March 18: As many as 23 students tested positive at a private residential college in Cuttack.
March 22: Nearly 45 students from reputed B-School (XIM) in Bhubaneswar tested positive. BMC sealed the management institute.
March 23: Four more students of the same residential college in Cuttack tested positive.
March 25: Two Covid-19 positives detected at Ravenshaw University in Cuttack
Is this a tip of the iceberg?
Since the corona graph in the State has just started sprinting up, and it's almost the early days, so will the contagious virus chart to a worse path in the future?
What is the ground scenario in Odisha? How the Edu institutions fare in the indicators and thresholds for the risk of introduction and transmission of Covid-19 in colleges or schools in Odisha.
The time is ripe to take a reality check.
WHAT CENTRE FOR DISEASE CONTROL (CDC) SAYS?
Though in the indicator of number of new cases per 100,000 persons within the last 14 days, Odisha as on today scored a value of around 3.12, which as per the US-based CDC is below the 5 per cent benchmark, therefore, carries the risk of lowest transmission.
However, this is only half the story told. The CDC says the indicator need to be seen in the context of number of Test Positive Rate (TPR) confirmed by the RT-PCR tests during the same period of 14-days.
As per CDC, if the TPR hovers between 3-8 per cent then the transmission risk is considered in the range of low to moderate. And above 8 per cent means high risk.
Moreover, it says colleges or schools have to follow the 5 key COVID-19 mitigation strategies:
- Consistent and correct use of masks
- Social distancing to the largest extent possible
- Hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette
- Cleaning and disinfection
- Contact tracing in collaboration with local health department
Unless all the key mitigation strategies enforced, the risk of transmission of the contagious virus stands high in colleges or schools, the apex research institute clearly outlined.
THE EXTRAS THAT COULD TURN SPOILER?
Besides the above, the US-based CDC prescribes that if the per cent rise in confirmed cases week-wise remained positive, it then assigns the transmission risk as high.
HOW ODISHA FARES?
- The TPR in the emerging hotspots in the State - Cuttack and Bhubaneswar - despite fewer RT-PCR tests (around 20 per cent of total tests), hovers at around 6 per cent.
Therefore, as per CDC, in the initial days, the transmission risk in colleges can be assigned as 'Moderate'. There is every chance of this crossing the 8 per cent threshold to move into the high risk range, when the share of RT-PCR tests constitute at least 50 per cent of the total tests.
Moreover, in the game-changer 'EXTRAS' putforth by CDC, Odisha has been on the weak wicket. The week-wise percentage rise in corona virus cases in the State has been on the positive side - means the transmission risk is high in colleges and schools.
As far as the adherence to 5-key Covid-19 mitigation strategies, the implementation seems very poor in Odisha.
THE EVIDENCE: Reports from the BMC and CMC suggest violation of Covid-19 protocols in the Edu institutions in a big way. For which, the cases saw a spike in the twin cities.
Today only, authorities in the Silver City Cuttack sealed a coaching institute for violation of COVID-19 protocol.
Therefore, in this parameter too Odisha fares poor indicating the high possibility of more college clusters popping up across the State.